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Tesla’s New Car Smell

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Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#41

Post by majormajor »

carlivar wrote: post #28
muglug wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has been designing and producing road-worthy vehicles for 14 years. If they're in startup-hair-on-fire mode right now, something is very wrong.

Which new automaker of the past 40 years do you compare them to as far as measuring what is wrong?

Hyundai turned their quality around pretty massively in 10 to 20 years after entering the US market. So is our new bar for Tesla "do they run out of money before they can replicate what Hyundai did"? Doesn't seem like shooting for the stars.

Seems like blind replication isn't the answer alone ( http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00207540701223493... ), which is unsurprising, but Tesla's sales targets and their current production line process as-reported seem at odds.

This stuff is very well-studied and making basic errors seems like a problem of hubris coming from a software industry that's in a much less mature state.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#42

Post by IcePenguino »

siavosh wrote: post #22
IcePenguino wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to agree completely. Autopilot is miles ahead. While I'm waiting for my 3 preorder, I took a test drive a Model S. I haven't felt as moved by a technology like Autopilot since I first swiped on the first iPhone. Coincidentally, we're in the market for a 2018 Odyssey as our family car too.

Off topic - but curious of why Odyssey > Sienna? ...as I'm having a hard time deciding.

Haven't done serious research, just reading some reviews online and going to the car show. I think I read that the Odyssey rides more quietly.

I also like the 2018 Odyssey's visual refresh. Sienna hasn't changed in eons it feels like. Inside, I wasn't a fan of the second row seat tracks on the Sienna.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#43

Post by IcePenguino »

robotresearcher wrote: post #25
IcePenguino wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to agree completely. Autopilot is miles ahead. While I'm waiting for my 3 preorder, I took a test drive a Model S. I haven't felt as moved by a technology like Autopilot since I first swiped on the first iPhone. Coincidentally, we're in the market for a 2018 Odyssey as our family car too.

Did you test a Mercedes and Audi as well?

I did not. I don't foresee these two with a car in the $25k (after incentives) price range with semi-autonomous driving. And unlike the top level comment, I really want something fully electric (for the planet).

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#44

Post by majormajor »

matt4077 wrote: post #9

In taking delivery of my wife’s Model S, we were treated to a group tour of the site. Everyone marveled at the robot porn,[...] Everyone but yours truly. I couldn’t help check off the sins against the “Toyota Bible” And I can't help but notice that his truly is still putting his wife's truly into a Tesla, not a Toyota. There seems to be a wave of stories critical of Musk currently, and most seem to be rooted in some…

If you've got money you might also buy a Rolls Royce, Aston Martin, Lambo, BMW, Jaguar, etc, instead of a Toyota too, because who cares about things like quality control at that point, and you want something different, but you'd be laughed out of the room if you said "I know Alfa Romeos are better made than Toyotas because they're fancier and cost more."

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#45

Post by dilemma »

rtpg wrote: post #40
dilemma wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Production issues in car manufacturing can be solved by adding more resources just like adding more programmers to a software project can. Nope, not at all.

What I'm saying isn't that the production issues get solved. What I'm saying is that if you have enough money, delays aren't as much of an issue in itself. You can wait things out. Valve surely has a lot of developement issues leading to delays, but they still got Half Life 2 out and made a bunch of money off of it.

No, you did say that money solves production issues.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#46

Post by BoorishBears »

carlivar wrote: post #35
BoorishBears wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that your Honda can't (edit: actually their specific model can't, others from Honda can), its that Honda didn't want to enable it under 20 miles an hour because they want to discourage use off highways. I wouldn't be surprised if your Honda has a similar to AP1 Mobileye sensor in the mirror, I know my Volt does and Chevy intentionally limited engagement to 15 mph and up even though once engaged, it can work…

I live in Southern California. On highways is exactly where I want to use it under 20 mph!

I thought yours was like the one on my Volt and many other cars from various manufacturers in that you can't enage under 20-15mph, but you can resume from a stop, if you already engaged it previously.

But it looks like Honda is the odd man out, as some of their cars have ACC, but don't have what they call "Low Speed Follow" which is the ability to slow down to a stop, then resume with the push of a button or the accelerator

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#47

Post by majormajor »

carlivar wrote: post #38
Hypx wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty self-evident if you read the next two paragraphs: > (Ironically, the Fremont plant is prominently featured in “The Machine…” as the locus of the ultimately failed GM-Toyota cooperation.) > As I watched Tesla’s messy, hiccuping line, with workers dashing in to fix faulty parts in place, my mind travelled back to the Honda plant I had visited years ago in Marysville, Ohio. Clean, calm, everything moved smoo…

I really find it hard to believe they don't understand the TPS. Sure. Maybe. I don't know. It seems more likely to me their "goal" (pun intended for those readers of "The Goal") is the TPS but their particular supply chain may not currently allow for it.

So even that interpretation leaves me wondering "why didn't they take that into account earlier"? Do the fancy computer-control-all-the-things people have too much influence compared to the boring practicalities of things like "how will we build this?"

Fundamentally my question on Tesla is now: if you're priced as a "we have a fundamentally better way of doing things that will disrupt the industry" company, but the core process in your business is still fundamentally inferior, will you have a long enough runway?

I used to be a bear on Tesla for grumpy "I don't like the decisions and design choices they make" reasons, but now the business itself seems a bit underdeveloped.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#48

Post by toomuchtodo »

QAPereo wrote: post #31
csours wrote: post #23

Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor. People believe funny things about Tesla and Elon. But before I talk about that, let me say: I've been extremely impressed with Tesla and Elon for their ability to eventually deliver, and to build unparalleled excitement around electric vehicles. I believe Elon is truly a visionary. Now for the funny things: 1. You can throw money at problems to fix them: If you do t…

Just to 3 Unknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-teslas-production-delays...

> still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.”

The press is up and running:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BaInXGBg9G7/

Based on a 3.7 second cycle time, they can bang out 5,837,837 body panels per year (assuming some math an automotive engineer on /r/teslamotors provided that takes into account downtime and typical automotive labor scheduling: 50 weeks/year * 5 days/week * 24 hours/day * 3600 seconds/hour)/3.7 second panel cycle

EDIT: csours: Thanks! I removed my grossly inaccurate prediction of per-vehicle pressed components.

in_cahoots: Original response was to comment that Tesla is still banging out components by hand; this is possible, my rebuttal is that they do have parts of the line that are fully operational.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#49

Post by xenadu02 »

Manufacturing ramp-up is exactly this sort of thing. Building by-hand as you work out the process and employ more automation. I'm not sure this is unexpected?

As an investor I know full well Tesla has a ticking clock. They must achieve scale before the giants can catch up. People underestimate how god-awful slow the big car makers are. They haven't even come to terms with what Tesla is really doing yet. None have anything like the software experience. My guess is Tesla has 5 more years before the big makers can truly become competitive (assuming they all fire their software engineers and hire new ones today).

Time will tell. If they're still fumbling a year from now then I'll start to get concerned. If they can't churn out at least 250,000 vehicles per year within two years I'll be very concerned.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#50

Post by ojm »

QAPereo wrote: post #31
csours wrote: post #23

Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor. People believe funny things about Tesla and Elon. But before I talk about that, let me say: I've been extremely impressed with Tesla and Elon for their ability to eventually deliver, and to build unparalleled excitement around electric vehicles. I believe Elon is truly a visionary. Now for the funny things: 1. You can throw money at problems to fix them: If you do t…

Just to 3 Unknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-teslas-production-delays...

> major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand

Reminds me of some other automotive companies when a new car is launched..

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