Live data from Hacker News

Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

lcamtuf.coredump.cx

221–230 of 340 posts

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#221

I'm an exited valley founder who just launched an emergency preparedness site for the rational crowd: https://theprepared.com Have been prepping in the SF / startup community for almost 10 years and teaching other techies how to prep for a long time, but historically was face to face because of stigma, etc. We started The Prepared because prepping is very rational and it's gone mainstream enough to have threads like…

Here are some preparedness-related ideas from 1999 as part of a hope by me to eventually use to design self-replicating space habitats (though not enough time to move them much further along): http://www.kurtz-fernhout.com/oscomak/ "The OSCOMAK project will foster a community in which many interested individuals will contribute to the creation of a distributed global repository of manufacturing knowledge about past, present and future processes, materials, and products. ... The OSCOMAK project is an attempt to create a core of communities more in control of their technological destiny and its social implications. No single design for a community or technology will please everyone, or even many people. Nor would a single design be likely to survive. So this project endeavors to gather information and to develop tools and processes that all fit together conceptually like Tinkertoys or Legos. The result will be a library of possibilities that individuals in a community can use to achieve any degree of self-sufficiency and self-replication within any size community, from one person to a billion people. Within every community people will interact with these possibilities by using them and extending them to design a community economy and physical layout that suits their needs and ideas. ..."

Here is my own list of concerns from 1999 (I'd add supervolcanoes and Cascadia subduction zone to that list now -- and of course replace Y2K with the Year 2038 problem): http://www.kurtz-fernhout.com/oscomak/fears.htm

Here is a picture of what happened to my mother's home city in the Netherlands when she was a teenager -- her family's house burned during the initial invasion -- and then she saw people including an elderly relative starve to death a couple years later -- so disasters do happen and sometimes seemingly out of the blue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_bombing_of_Rotterdam#/m...

Most US Americans may ignore this fact, but our lives in the USA are completely dependent on the continual error-free functioning of decades-old Soviet missile-launch computers built with computer chips we tried to sabotage: http://www.businessinsider.com/russias-dead-hand-system-may-... "To deter the possibility of a U.S. nuclear first-strike, the Soviets created a system called Perimeter, also known as "Dead Hand." The Dead Hand was a computer system that could autonomously launch all of the USSR's nuclear weapons once it was activated, across the entirety of the Soviet Union."

Let's hope those 1970s-era Soviet computer engineers knew how to build reliable systems from unreliable components! But, it still may be prudent to prepare for the situation where those Soviet computers eventually fail in some unexpected way.

Example: "99 red ballons - Nena" (but failing from a large earthquake misinterpreted as a nuclear strike may be more likely): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14IRDDnEPR4

Humans have become a geological force with all our technologies of abundance -- including control of nuclear energy as well as massive use of fossil fuels. But then we ignore the implications of all that technology because dealing with the implications requires thinking differently -- and thinking differently can be hard, expensive, and sometimes painful. Related humor on the difficulty of thinking differently: "Star Wars: The Death Star Cantina | WDR" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yl_reBjVqU

As Albert Einstein said, "The release of atomic power has changed everything except our way of thinking ... the solution to this problem lies in the heart of mankind. If only I had known, I should have become a watchmaker. (1945)".

Of course, any Apple watch these days has more power than the computers used to design the first atomic weapons. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2012/mar/07/turings-cathed... "[N]o other book has engaged so intelligently and disconcertingly with the digital age's relationship to nuclear weapons research, not just as a moral quandary to do with funding, but as an indispensable developmental influence, producing the conceptual tools that would unlock the intellectual power of the computer."

I generalized Einstein's theme for our new century to: "The biggest challenge of the 21st century is the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity." http://www.pdfernhout.net/recognizing-irony-is-a-key-to-tran...

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There certainly is a middle ground - however why stay in the same place and expect a different future? New Orleans isn't that much more prepared for another flood. Houston re-did the entire bayou system about 5 years ago and yet here we are. People's aversion to moving, especially after a major disaster, boggles my mind.

Well, they really didn't "redo the entire bayou system". They considered alternatives and chose the most politically correct one for the parties involved. They knew it wasn't enough for something like Harvey but they didn't think there would be a Harvey( a supposed "500-year event") anytime soon. Black Swan anyone? AndrewKemendo says: "People's aversion to moving, especially after a major disaster, boggles my mind."…

Dayton tops the list for least natural disaster prone. Similar with Southern Maryland. Denver is pretty high on the list and Seattle seems pretty safe too.

There are plenty of places to go.

For some reason we seem to love to build massive cities on disaster areas. I'm looking at you SF, LA and NYC.

But hey fuck it, lets just continue being bad at statistics and assume that because a natural disaster happened recently it won't happen again for a long time (the idea of a "500 year" storm is insane).

[1]https://www.cbsnews.com/media/top-10-safest-us-cities-from-n...

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There certainly is a middle ground - however why stay in the same place and expect a different future? New Orleans isn't that much more prepared for another flood. Houston re-did the entire bayou system about 5 years ago and yet here we are. People's aversion to moving, especially after a major disaster, boggles my mind.

You uh... don't know too many people from New Orleans do you? Ask them to move and they will look at you as if you'd grown another head. Maybe moving elsewhere is easy for you, upper-middle-class person with marketable skills and no loyalties. But to them it's like saying "Hey, why don't you just walk away from everyone and everything, the people and sights and smells and sounds, you cherish? You won't? What are you,…

You won't find argument from me that people are irrational friend.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solid advice. As a recently licensed ham, I could tell you without a doubt that if I pulled my radio out of the box and tried to figure out what the hell to do with it in the midst of an emergency, the only thing I would accomplish is wasting LOTS of valuable time. It took me weeks to get my radio set up exactly how I like it, but now I can tune into emergency services, GMRS/FRS, Marine VHF, and hundreds of ham repea…

All of the test questions are available online, too [0]. They are literally the questions on the test, and you can rote-memory them if you don't care to understand them. But the questions cover important topics in ham radio: They serve a purpose. If you learn the theory behind the questions, you'll be a lot better off anyway. Also, don't trust airsoft to give you tactical skills you can apply in actual combat. Those…

Yeah, I suppose for combat training, there's nothing better than joining the actual military or reserves. Many of the habits acquired playing airsoft will probably get you killed in reality (like taking cover behind a 1/4" boards of plywood, staying within the designated field, or being compelled to complete an objective within a half hour), and in reality, an opposing military force is going to put up a much more serious fight than a bunch of uncoordinated kids and middle aged men. Where I live, the odds of a domestic armed conflict are so insanely low, that taking things any farther would be insane. In fact, it would probably be more likely for someone to burglarize a rifle from my apartment than for me to ever end up needing one, so I just fool around with toys for fun.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#225
post #132

The major thing overlooked here is mindset. After 14 years in the military and experience with several armed conflicts and humanitarian disasters, I have seen that pretty much all your plans and preparation will go out the window, so you need to learn to move adapt and improvise. If you're going to survive any contingency scenario you need to be resilient, excruciatingly innovative and mentally tough. Think more like…

> The most successful trait I've seen in survivors it's to know when to stay put and when to move. @andrewkemendo, can you say more about this? Is there a framework for making that decision based on situation on the ground, etc?

There are frameworks for common situations. Too many to list here, but a very common one is being lost while hiking / in the wilderness. People, especially men, will die not because they got lost, but because they moved afterwards when they should've sheltered in place and created signals for rescue.

Then on the other hand, if you're in a civil unrest situation outside of your home, moving is better than not.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, they really didn't "redo the entire bayou system". They considered alternatives and chose the most politically correct one for the parties involved. They knew it wasn't enough for something like Harvey but they didn't think there would be a Harvey( a supposed "500-year event") anytime soon. Black Swan anyone? AndrewKemendo says: "People's aversion to moving, especially after a major disaster, boggles my mind."…

Dayton tops the list for least natural disaster prone. Similar with Southern Maryland. Denver is pretty high on the list and Seattle seems pretty safe too. There are plenty of places to go. For some reason we seem to love to build massive cities on disaster areas. I'm looking at you SF, LA and NYC. But hey fuck it, lets just continue being bad at statistics and assume that because a natural disaster happened recently…

Seattle is safe? Aren't they under impending doom from the Cascade fault[1]?

[1]http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/11/us/cascadia-subduction-zone-ea...

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the feedback, but why do those seem contradictory? Honest question. As someone else said, very sane people like Musk, Hawkings, and Gates are warning of AI CRISPR. It's not the cliche SkyNet or Ghost in the Shell stuff per se. For example, automation and how it's effecting the economy really does matter, regardless of how much we in the valley would like to avoid that narrative.

> very sane people like Musk, Hawkings, and Gates Ehhhh... those folks are smart but none of them would make a top 10 list of the sanest people according to me. > It's not the cliche SkyNet or Ghost in the Shell stuff per se. For example, automation and how it's effecting the economy really does matter Sure, but this sounds like a cop-out in context.

Yeah sane wasn't the best word for those hypomaniacs, but you got what I meant - they are not irrational tin foil hatters.

Why does that sound like a cop out? Economic decline, the U.S. erosion of the fundamentals of a quality life, overpopulation / too many dependents and not enough young workers, etc... those are all valid reasons to prepare.

As is preparing for car accidents, sudden layoffs, floods, and so on.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, I re-read the beginning and I didn't see anything about the points I raised. I think your point that overzealous people who as you put it: begin by shopping for ballistic vests and night vision goggles; they would be better served by grabbing a fire extinguisher, some bottled water, and then putting the rest of their money in a rainy-day fund. is right on point, but IMO that just says - hey don't be insane.…

Is there a middle ground? My kids went as part of a team to help people rebuild after Katrina and one of the folks they met was rebuilding their house but building it as a boat. They had re-done the foundation so that the house rested on it, and its sewer connection was just the house pipe inset into the city pipe (so it could easily lift out). That, 15' of chain to allow the house to float above the foundation and c…

IMO the middle ground is to move!

I live in a place where other than a 3-4 days of average annual disruption due to snow, the only real natural disaster risks are associated by poorly engineered and maintained sewers backing up.

I find it bizarre that I've spent millions over the years providing disaster recovery and resiliency for relatively unimportant things, but the combo of a devastating hurricane in Texas and major earthquake in Northern California could essentially trigger a economic calamity.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#229

How about we plan on not having a doomsday in the first place? Why are nuclear weapons not banned? Chemical/biological weapons are. Let's end nuclear weapons too, and take this world back from the possibility of doomsday.

Nuclear power is the root cause of nuclear weapons.

You forgot your /s

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solid advice. As a recently licensed ham, I could tell you without a doubt that if I pulled my radio out of the box and tried to figure out what the hell to do with it in the midst of an emergency, the only thing I would accomplish is wasting LOTS of valuable time. It took me weeks to get my radio set up exactly how I like it, but now I can tune into emergency services, GMRS/FRS, Marine VHF, and hundreds of ham repea…

All of the test questions are available online, too [0]. They are literally the questions on the test, and you can rote-memory them if you don't care to understand them. But the questions cover important topics in ham radio: They serve a purpose. If you learn the theory behind the questions, you'll be a lot better off anyway. Also, don't trust airsoft to give you tactical skills you can apply in actual combat. Those…

you can rote-memory them if you don't care to understand them.

That's how I passed my General test, using a flashcard app. I studied the theory and practice as well, but for passing the test I just flat out memorized the answers.

The reason I don't do that with the Extra test is because there's a lot of that stuff I truly need to study up on, and I don't want to "pass" a test for material I have little clue about.

Post reply on HN