Doomsday planning for less crazy folk • Hacker News Board

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#201

Post by bitwize » Mon, Aug 28, 2017, 1:31 AM UTC

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #118

ChuckMcM wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a middle ground? My kids went as part of a team to help people rebuild after Katrina and one of the folks they met was rebuilding their house but building it as a boat. They had re-done the foundation so that the house rested on it, and its sewer connection was just the house pipe inset into the city pipe (so it could easily lift out). That, 15' of chain to allow the house to float above the foundation and c…

There certainly is a middle ground - however why stay in the same place and expect a different future? New Orleans isn't that much more prepared for another flood. Houston re-did the entire bayou system about 5 years ago and yet here we are. People's aversion to moving, especially after a major disaster, boggles my mind.

You uh... don't know too many people from New Orleans do you? Ask them to move and they will look at you as if you'd grown another head. Maybe moving elsewhere is easy for you, upper-middle-class person with marketable skills and no loyalties. But to them it's like saying "Hey, why don't you just walk away from everyone and everything, the people and sights and smells and sounds, you cherish? You won't? What are you, insane?"

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#202

Post by cbr » Mon, Aug 28, 2017, 1:32 AM UTC

ChuckMcM wrote: post #114

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, I re-read the beginning and I didn't see anything about the points I raised. I think your point that overzealous people who as you put it: begin by shopping for ballistic vests and night vision goggles; they would be better served by grabbing a fire extinguisher, some bottled water, and then putting the rest of their money in a rainy-day fund. is right on point, but IMO that just says - hey don't be insane.…

Is there a middle ground? My kids went as part of a team to help people rebuild after Katrina and one of the folks they met was rebuilding their house but building it as a boat. They had re-done the foundation so that the house rested on it, and its sewer connection was just the house pipe inset into the city pipe (so it could easily lift out). That, 15' of chain to allow the house to float above the foundation and c…

    its sewer connection was just the house pipe inset
    into the city pipe

That connection isn't too bad, but I'm curious how they dealt with water supply and (if they have it) natural gas? Those are much harder to make flexible.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#203

Post by vvanders » Mon, Aug 28, 2017, 1:32 AM UTC

fapjacks wrote: post #178

vvanders wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It somewhat depends on what you're looking for. For the cheapest, almost "disposable" radio it's hard to beat the Baofeng UV-5R[1] at $30. However they aren't the most reliable and they tend to be pretty spotty in terms of how clean they are(broadcasting on frequencies other than you're transmitting). They're also a total PITA to program, but for emergencies you can put them on 146.520(national calling frequency) and…

Baofengs are not actually cheap. They inexpensive af, but they are not "cheap" in that sense of the word. They're actually $200 radios being subsidized by the Chinese government to compete directly with the Japanese electronics industry. I've got like seven of those things. Those, and Morakniv knives.

Love to see a source on the subsidization.

They certainly aren't a match for Yaesu/Icom/Kenwood, it's pretty well known that most transmit well above the FCC rules for interference [1] [2].

[1] https://kd8twg.net/2015/10/17/a-quick-and-unscientific-spect...

[2] https://sm6vfz.wordpress.com/2016/11/11/baofeng-uv-5r-spectr...

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#204

Post by cbr » Mon, Aug 28, 2017, 1:34 AM UTC

Sukotto wrote: post #198

tzs wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What they should have done is learned when to move or when to stay by: 1. Not buying a house in Houston and then 2. Gotten out well before it was imminent. The reports I've seen are describing the Houston situation as a 1 in a 1000 year flood. Does it really make sense to avoid a place based on the possibility of such rare events?

Katrina was a "once a hundred year" storm. Likewise Sandy. Now Harvey is a "once in 500". All within 12 years. I think we should stop measuring against data from a different global climate.

A "hundred year storm" doesn't mean we expect one per hundred years globally, but one per hundred years locally.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#205

Post by naravara » Mon, Aug 28, 2017, 1:45 AM UTC

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #56

The major thing overlooked here is mindset. After 14 years in the military and experience with several armed conflicts and humanitarian disasters, I have seen that pretty much all your plans and preparation will go out the window, so you need to learn to move adapt and improvise. If you're going to survive any contingency scenario you need to be resilient, excruciatingly innovative and mentally tough. Think more like…

I can't imagine that a large metro area after a natural disaster like a flood will have much there to scavenge? It would be hard enough to find things that aren't soaked in toxic sludge-water, but the number of other people also trying to scavenge are bound to outstrip whatever meager resources are available.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#206

Post by Klinky » Mon, Aug 28, 2017, 1:46 AM UTC

tcoppi wrote: post #190

afterburner wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing his point. He's not saying he expects everyone to do this. He's just saying when to move or not move is often more important than any other considerations. Note that he included as an option leaving well before the storm hit. And there was plenty of warning on this storm.

Exactly, there is no reason anyone should be on the roof of their homes in Houston other than inability to heed warnings and read a weather report.

When a mass evacuation of Houston occurred due to Hurricane Rita, 107 people died from the conditions caused by the mass evacuation. The conditions on the roads were very very poor for those following your suggested advice of "heeding the warnings". The storm in the end was not as big of an event as it was made out to be.

It's not as simple a decision as you're making it out to be.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Rita#Evacuation_deat...

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#207

Post by knz » Mon, Aug 28, 2017, 1:47 AM UTC

grogenaut wrote: post #73

laydn wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't lived in an area prone to weather-related disasters. But, I feel like, most of these are avoidable (I mean, not the disaster itself but the "riding-it-out" part). Usually, there is plenty of time and warning so you can get out. Earthquakes though, are unpredicatable and they arrive with zero notice. And should the worst happen in an earthquake, you would not need many of the supplies in the list above. Wate…

Tornados are about as unpredictable as earthquakes.

I disagree - tornadoes generally come with many warnings by metrologists and often tornado sirens. Earthquakes come with a split second rumble if you're lucky.

I've experienced earthquakes, cyclones/hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfire, flooding, blizzards, and all kinds of severe weather - they're all awful in their own way but being caught in a tornado outbreak (30 in 90mins, some over a mile wide) was by far the worst I've experienced - sheltering for hours while sirens scream, drains howl as tornadoes go past, and the roof peels off is up there with the helplessness of being stuck in a violently shaking building for a few minutes (I've experienced a few 7+ shakes and also lost friends and family to earthquakes that destroyed my home town so know how intense that can be).

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#208

Post by tzs » Mon, Aug 28, 2017, 1:48 AM UTC

vvanders wrote: post #23

saryant wrote: post #19

I've been in a number of major natural disasters at this point. Fukushima, Ike, Colorado's 2013 floods. I've also been in two shooting incidents (where fortunately only the shooter was hurt). My point is, I've been lucky so far because none of these posed a major problem for me. I made it out with manageable inconvenience. However, I can only get lucky like that so many times. So now I keep the following at home: * 5…

It might be crossing into the prepper territory too much but I'm really happy to have a 2 meter radio in my car/handheld tranceiver in my bag. The cell network went down south of us during the eclipse but repeaters were still running just fine. Even if you don't have a license you're allowed to transmit in emergency situations.

> Even if you don't have a license you're allowed to transmit in emergency situations.

True, but I'd say get a license anyway so that you can at least practice live with the radio before an emergency.

All that is needed for 2 meters in the US is a Technician class ham license, which requires getting 26 questions right on a 35 question multiple choice exam.

I'm confident that most people on HN could learn enough to pass in a weekend of casual preparation, assuming they have had high school physics or equivalent.

The test is divided into several subsections, with only a handful of questions from each subsection, so even if you are weak on some particular area the impact is limited.

The question pool is available to the public and there are excellent apps and websites that will drill you with the actual questions. After a weekend of that many people find that they have accidentally memorized the answers.

There are no FCC fees for the test or license. Third parties actually conduct the test, and they are allowed to charge. The largest organization giving tests, the ARRL, charges $15 I believe. There are smaller groups that don't cover the whole US that are cheaper, or even free.

The license is good for 10 years, renewal is free, and does not require any additional testing. (The only time you need additional testing is to upgrade to a higher class of license, which gives you access to more frequency bands and/or more power and/or more operating modes).

You can get a handheld 2 meter transceiver for $30ish.

So...under $50 to get licensed AND get a radio!

(Of course you CAN spend a lot more on a radio if you wish. I have a Kenwood handheld that transmits on 2 meters, 1.5 meters, and 70 cm, and can receive everything from 10 KHz to 1.3 GHz minus cell phone frequencies, and can receive on two frequencies at once. It was around $300).

Two recommendations for those who decide to do this:

1. Before you apply for a license create an account at the FCC site. That will assign you an FCC ID number, which you can give to the testing organization when you take the test.

If you don't have an FCC ID number you have to give the testing organization your Social Security number.

2. Once you have your license, people can look you up by call sign at the FCC site. The information available includes your name and address. If you don't want your home address published that way, you can register with a PO box.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#209

Post by rodgerd » Mon, Aug 28, 2017, 1:49 AM UTC

rev_bird wrote: post #176

rodgerd wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food for a week? Good sense, although plenty of people in supposedly rich first-world nations struggle to have enough food for now , never mind a week spare. Food for a month? Maybe if you live in a region that could easily be cut off in the event of disasters. Food for a year? Listen, if things turn so badly to shit you need a year of food, food is going to be the least of your worries.

>if things turn so badly to shit you need a year of food, food is going to be the least of your worries. I don't see why this is the case -- saying "doing X is going to be the least of your worries" seems to imply that there are going to be other priorities and "X" will be ignored -- i.e. "charging your phone is going to be the least of your worries." But food... you _need_ food, even if there are other crazy things…

It's a reflection of the idea that if civilisation collapses to the point you can't obtain food except by pulling it out of your emergency store a year later, you're probably going to have died of disease, injury, thirst, violence or a number of more pressing concerns.

Seriously, if the ability to get food to people has been down for a full year, you won't have medicine. You almost certainly won't have fuel, electricity, public order, sanitation, or clean water.

Re: Doomsday planning for less crazy folk

#210

Post by trapperkeeper74 » Mon, Aug 28, 2017, 2:01 AM UTC

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #56

The major thing overlooked here is mindset. After 14 years in the military and experience with several armed conflicts and humanitarian disasters, I have seen that pretty much all your plans and preparation will go out the window, so you need to learn to move adapt and improvise. If you're going to survive any contingency scenario you need to be resilient, excruciatingly innovative and mentally tough. Think more like…

Relentlessly resourceful.

It's a false dichotomy though to say mindset is the only thing that's important, it's the most important but not a panacea.

Also, it's going to suck if there's a massive/gradual increase in prices of food over 10-50 years plus for people whom haven't stockpiled calories, lipids and protein when it was cheap. That's something that can't be fixed without a little preparation: not going crazy with a bunker and a bunch of crap, just getting the major things right.

Finally, when the food runs out, if you don't have an AR and a defensible homestead, you're gonna be preyed upon by strangers and/or neighbors because that's just human nature.