Hypnotized by Hyperloop • Hacker News Board

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#151

Post by icc97 » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 9:02 PM UTC

ethn wrote: post #139

lisper wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem ... isn't ... that the Hyper-loop won't work. Actually, that is the problem. The thermal expansion problem has not yet been solved, or even seriously addressed. Hyperloop proponents are completely ignoring it, giddily betting that a solution will somehow magically present itself because technological optimism always wins. Well, no, it doesn't. The only thing that always wins is the laws of physics.

I said that because it turns out, it doesn't even matter if Hyperloop works or not. In the best case of implementation, it's still not even beneficial to the common tax payer.

> In the best case of implementation, it's still not even beneficial to the common tax payer.

The point of the Hyperloop is to be better for the tax payer than the proposed rail system [0]:

> Hyperloop transit system concept which [Elon Musk] claimed would travel over three times as fast and cost less than a tenth of the rail proposal

So in the best case implementation it would be beneficial to the tax payer.

Also Musk's point was for the US to be pushing to improve technology, rather than watching the French, Germans, Japanese and Chinese do it. Were the proposals on a similar level to the Japanese Maglev trains [1] that are coming online at a similar time, then people would be less interested in the Hyperloop.

The Maglev trains can run at 314mph max vs 220 max, but even with a completely new technology and with 86% of the new line will be through tunnels - it's going to be a comparable cost (roughly 2x more expensive per mile by my calculations). [1]

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail#Alt...

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L0_Series#History

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#152

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 9:09 PM UTC

eesmith wrote: post #141

kurthr wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thank you for bringing this up and the chance to read about this issue elsewhere, but no it isn't a problem. We have 2000km long gas pipelines. They dont worry about it (on the surface where temperatures actually change). Serpentines work... there are so many solutions that one could be accidentally introduced. I think we're discussing a bikeshed.

Gases don't care about g-forces going through an expansion loop/bend. We still haven't solved the thermal expansion problem for railroads. Hot weather can cause tracks to buckle. It can also cause roadways to buckle.

[deleted]

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#153

Post by qu1j0t3 » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 9:29 PM UTC

ComradeTaco wrote: post #138

TeMPOraL wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing I don't understand about the "induced demand" thing - surely there must be a limit to this? If you keep expanding roads, at some point you must hit the situation in which your capacity is greater than the number of people even remotely interested in traveling the road... I suppose the limit might be quite high, but I've never seen it discussed at all .

There is a functional limit for induced demand! But it effectively can't be reached in urban and suburban areas because cars scale really poorly. Cars don't scale well for three main reasons: (1) Cost. Building roads and highways inflicts both huge upfront capital costs and maintenance costs. A typical highway line has a throughput of 2,000 cars per hour. (2) Real Estate. Building the level of roads necessary to meet…

> you could possibly make a city where driving is king and there is effectively no congestion. It would just be absurdly expensive and hostile to everyone who doesn't have access to car.

This is exactly what has been done in most of North America, except for the "no congestion" part.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#154

Post by starbuxman » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 9:38 PM UTC

gutnor wrote: post #59

ardit33 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but it creates huge economic positive impacts 1. You can live in a less expensive area, (i.e. miles away), and work in a major center. This makes both possible of talent being able to live cheaper, and be able to work where they want (less geographical restrictions), which unlocks greater efficiency of the work place. 2. The alternative? Most people living with few tens of miles of workplaces, prices of living r…

Why commute ? Remote working is a thing and everything the topic comes up, something that a significant part of HN is already enjoying. No need to pour billions in public transport. Also companies have proven that they are more than willing to outsource everywhere, hiring people anywhere. There are reason they still hire in very expensive place like SF. You bet that it is a problem that will go away at some point, an…

With great collaborative tools, a greater concern for carbon emissions, and the cost-saving benefits of working remotely, daily commutes to the office will decline.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#155

Post by maxerickson » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 9:47 PM UTC

protomyth wrote: post #96

maxerickson wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet trains win bigly for servicing bedroom communities. A stop is just a stop.

Maybe, but a stop that can be twice as far away while taking the same commute time will probably yield lower housing costs since the amount of housing in an acceptable commute area is going to be much larger.

I was thinking about the amount of infrastructure needed to service the whole project corridor.

Of course it isn't clear how the hyperloop would work in practice, but I doubt a station would be less footprint than a train stop. And running the services simultaneously is probably harder with small shuttles than with a train that just stops at each station. Likely faster, but a lot more complicated.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#156

Post by mamon » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 9:52 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #148

mamon wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone else in this thread noticed: so far all Musk did was incremental improvements to existing technologies (electric cars, autopilot, space rockets). He has no track of record of actually creating a new technology.

Except that the established players in those markets did not manage to do any of that stuff. Not a huge Musk fan but still let's give credit where credit is due. I see people that have built two web apps call themselves serial entrepreneur, I think Musk is actually worthy of that title and so far he did deliver the goods.

Ok, so he is a great entrepreneur: knows how to run the company to be profitable, low cost, high revenue, knows how to advertise, how to make a lot of hype. Those are great skills, but have nothing to do with technology. There are many companies that are better at creating new, disrupting technologies: Google with all of its AI research and Android, Amazon with a cloud platform, even Microsoft with Windows and Office was more disruptive than Tesla or SpaceX will ever be.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#157

Post by pas » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 9:59 PM UTC

ComradeTaco wrote: post #138

TeMPOraL wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing I don't understand about the "induced demand" thing - surely there must be a limit to this? If you keep expanding roads, at some point you must hit the situation in which your capacity is greater than the number of people even remotely interested in traveling the road... I suppose the limit might be quite high, but I've never seen it discussed at all .

There is a functional limit for induced demand! But it effectively can't be reached in urban and suburban areas because cars scale really poorly. Cars don't scale well for three main reasons: (1) Cost. Building roads and highways inflicts both huge upfront capital costs and maintenance costs. A typical highway line has a throughput of 2,000 cars per hour. (2) Real Estate. Building the level of roads necessary to meet…

Only cost is important for tunnels, because there's still space sufficient for hundreds of layers of tunnels below cities.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#158

Post by jacquesm » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 10:00 PM UTC

mamon wrote: post #156

jacquesm wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that the established players in those markets did not manage to do any of that stuff. Not a huge Musk fan but still let's give credit where credit is due. I see people that have built two web apps call themselves serial entrepreneur, I think Musk is actually worthy of that title and so far he did deliver the goods.

Ok, so he is a great entrepreneur: knows how to run the company to be profitable, low cost, high revenue, knows how to advertise, how to make a lot of hype. Those are great skills, but have nothing to do with technology. There are many companies that are better at creating new, disrupting technologies: Google with all of its AI research and Android, Amazon with a cloud platform, even Microsoft with Windows and Office…

Yes, but you should compare SpaceX with other space entities and Tesla with other car manufacturers. Apples to apples. Comparing Tesla or SpaceX with Google, Amazon or Microsoft is pointless, they are in completely different fields.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#159

Post by dalbasal » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 10:02 PM UTC

stcredzero wrote: post #143

dalbasal wrote: post #18

One feature of the transport market (from a mile high view) is that demand is almost infinite. If you can get 40kms in 45 minutes, then you can live within 40 miles of work and commute in that time. If you could go 400kms, then that becomes your commuting radius. We've seen people spread this way as earlier mechanized transport was invented. IE, average commute times didn't go down because of faster transport, distan…

One feature of the transport market (from a mile high view) is that demand is almost infinite. It seems this is also true for cars and trucks. No matter how many roads we build, there is congestion. I think automated cars are going to show that one of the limiting factors to how much our society uses such transportation is the supply of piloting labor. Also to chime in: It's not literally infinite. It's just much hig…

I think for it (demand) is very high, but it's not really possible to say for sure without supplying a lot more, free piloting can give us. I think infrastructure will continue to be the limiting factor.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#160

Post by pas » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 10:03 PM UTC

eesmith wrote: post #132

Could someone tell me how these tunnels will be cooled and vented? Sure, put a car on an electric sled. But the people want A/C (or heat), and lights, the wheels provide friction. If the car was running beforehand then the engine block is cooling off. Even if it's an electric car, the brakes, tires, and skin will be hot, dumping heat into the well-insulated tunnel. This is a well-known problem in London, where decade…

You can transport heat quite efficiently in pipes (via water), it just takes a lot of money to build a cooling network. And a lot of energy to run it (both the regular and the heat pumps).