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Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

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Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#81

Post by jclardy »

jondubois wrote: post #69
philjohn wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt it, suspect it's more likely to open them up to a whole new market. For example, I would never consider dropping $90k on a car (unless I was earning many multiples of that a year), but $35k on a car that has the right range for me, and many of the mod cons of the grown up version? That's more likely. Ask yourself this - why would anyone buy an A1, A3 or A4 when there is the A5, A7, TT and R8/RS8 from Audi? Be…

Maybe a lot of people wanted to own a Tesla so badly that they were willing to stretch their finances to get it. Tesla has had a lot of hype, it can have that effect on people. In some European countries, there are Taxi drivers who drive Teslas (often for economical reasons). Now these people can own a Tesla without hurting their bank account. I think that there is a reason why car brands are either luxury or mass ma…

We are still talking $35k-$100k, in essence, the exact same price range that BMW lives in.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#82

Post by nicoburns »

greenyoda wrote: post #17
DannyBee wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's California for you: The people who use the lanes, by and large, don't need them[1], and simultaneously, California subsidizes and encourages electric car driving while having, by far, the absolute worst electrical infrastructure in the country, with no real plan to improve it[2] Don't worry, somehow, they are saving the environment in all this, despite the fact that most cars these days probably put out less e…

"The same is even more true of the US, I did the math out in an earlier HN post, IIRC it comes out to something ridiculous like double or triple all current residential electric usage on a yearly basis." In NYC, we get uncomfortably close to peak electrical capacity on hot summer days, to the point where the utilities beg us to reduce consumption (e.g., e-mails at work saying the power company is asking us to turn of…

Seems like a perfect situation for Photo Voltaics...

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#83

Post by taneq »

Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

> I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway.

There a story a couple of months ago about the fact that they've saved a lot of time by going straight to the main production lines rather than building a testing line first?

Is this a good plan? Time will tell but I'm sure glad I'm not involved. :S

Sources:

http://www.newsweek.com/tesla-skips-traditional-manufacturin...

http://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/tesla-wont-test-model...

Edit: From the second link:

> Let's recap: Tesla's flawed Model X launch was partly due to not taking the time to adjust for problems identified in the soft-tooling phase of pre-production. The lesson Tesla learned? Don't bother with soft tooling for the Model 3.

Wow. Is it just me or does that sound like "The unit tests kept failing and made us miss a deadline. No more unit tests!"

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#84

Post by taneq »

ido wrote: post #41
gcb0 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and then you ignore that a cheap ev can't be the only car for a person, specially out of san fran. so now you have two insurances. two garages or live well enough to have two street parking. two maintenance bills. etc. etc.

Why can't a cheap ev be a person's only car in SF?

But what about the one time per decade that they decide to make a road trip to Miami?

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#85

Post by taneq »

sxp wrote: post #16
radious wrote: post #8

HOV lanes in Bay Area will get so crowded...

The nice thing about a car with Autopilot is that it makes driving in heavy traffic less stressful. You still lose the time, but the trip is almost as relaxing as being a passenger during heavy traffic.

How's the reliability on the new Autopilot these days? Last I heard it still didn't inspire much faith but I know they've been pumping out updates.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#86

Post by arethuza »

nradov wrote: post #72
stupidcar wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

If electric cars are so simple, why is the Tesla Model S so unreliable? https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-S/reliability-1095 Conversely, the Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars. Yet it is mechanically complex with both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, plus a CVT. So clearly engineering skill and manufacturing quality are bigger factors than the drive train.

How unreliable are ICEs these days - maybe its just me, but I've never had an engine problem in nearly 20 years of owning cars. Electrical problems, suspension problems, drainage problems - had all of them but never had a problem with the actual engine.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#87

Post by Munkum »

taneq wrote: post #83
Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

> I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. There a story a couple of months ago about the fact that they've saved a lot of time by going straight to the main production lines rather than building a testing line first? Is this a good plan? Time will tell but I'm sure glad I'm not involved. :S Sources: http://www.newsweek.com/tesla-skips-traditional-manufactu…

No, this is not a good plan at all, it's incredibly risky.

To get the car all road legal it needs to be crash tested - that is usually what the pre-volume builds are used for. If they fail (and they sometimes do, because you can't do a finite element analysis on an assembly as complex as a car in the variety of scenarios that you would crash test it) then you need to reengineer the car. This usually means panel gauge increases, sometimes it means additional reinforcement parts (boron steel inserts and brackets a lot of the time). If that happens the production could be delayed by months as they'd need to find a way to feed those parts to the line and modify any tooling that might be effected.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#88

Post by Broken_Hippo »

jondubois wrote: post #69
philjohn wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt it, suspect it's more likely to open them up to a whole new market. For example, I would never consider dropping $90k on a car (unless I was earning many multiples of that a year), but $35k on a car that has the right range for me, and many of the mod cons of the grown up version? That's more likely. Ask yourself this - why would anyone buy an A1, A3 or A4 when there is the A5, A7, TT and R8/RS8 from Audi? Be…

Maybe a lot of people wanted to own a Tesla so badly that they were willing to stretch their finances to get it. Tesla has had a lot of hype, it can have that effect on people. In some European countries, there are Taxi drivers who drive Teslas (often for economical reasons). Now these people can own a Tesla without hurting their bank account. I think that there is a reason why car brands are either luxury or mass ma…

I'm in Norway. I've ridden in a Tesla taxi.

Yes, the upfront cost of the car is high. But on the other hand, the gas and maintenance costs make up for it. I completely understand the switch. Plus, the ride is nice, comfortable, and quiet for the passenger.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#89

Post by philbarr »

gambiting wrote: post #75
jondubois wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe a lot of people wanted to own a Tesla so badly that they were willing to stretch their finances to get it. Tesla has had a lot of hype, it can have that effect on people. In some European countries, there are Taxi drivers who drive Teslas (often for economical reasons). Now these people can own a Tesla without hurting their bank account. I think that there is a reason why car brands are either luxury or mass ma…

I live in UK and I see loads of Teslas as taxis, which is almost unthinkable considering the cost of the car - and I don't mean luxury taxis, I mean it's common to see a normal curb-side taxi as a tesla. I suspect the fact that it's extremely cheap to run and tax balances off very high leasing cost and makes it worth it. I imagine nearly 100% of those sales will turn into Model 3s as soon as it's available.

Where do you live in the UK?! I'm in the north and have never seen a Tesla once (taxi or otherwise)!

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#90

Post by Broken_Hippo »

jondubois wrote: post #48

I wonder if Tesla is worried that this new model might cannibalize its more expensive, more profitable model S? Also, I should think that the level of automation required to produce a mass market car on the scale necessary to be profitable would be insane... And I bet Toyota, GM and all the others have patents on many, if not all of these production automation technologies.

I remember hearing some time back that Tesla's entire electric car plan was to produce the more expensive, luxury cars first, using the benefits (monetary and production improvements and so on) from those to start making more affordable electric cars - because understandably, most folks can't understand the more expensive ones. The vision is more to make sure everyone can own an electric car, hence the cheaper models.

So no, I truly don't think that is a worry. I think this is just continuation of the bigger picture and a calculated risk.

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