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Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

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Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#61

Post by philjohn »

jondubois wrote: post #48

I wonder if Tesla is worried that this new model might cannibalize its more expensive, more profitable model S? Also, I should think that the level of automation required to produce a mass market car on the scale necessary to be profitable would be insane... And I bet Toyota, GM and all the others have patents on many, if not all of these production automation technologies.

I doubt it, suspect it's more likely to open them up to a whole new market.

For example, I would never consider dropping $90k on a car (unless I was earning many multiples of that a year), but $35k on a car that has the right range for me, and many of the mod cons of the grown up version? That's more likely.

Ask yourself this - why would anyone buy an A1, A3 or A4 when there is the A5, A7, TT and R8/RS8 from Audi? Because people want different things from cars.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#62

Post by Munkum »

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too.

I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken.

Disclosure: work in the automotive industry designing high volume production lines and planning vehicle launches.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#63

Post by schiffern »

sadface wrote: post #51
wyager wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CO2 is fungible.

Yes, but surface-level biology is pretty much carbon neutral. All of the carbon you exhale to the atmosphere comes from the food you eat, which gets its carbon from the atmosphere via photosynthesis. Obviously there are edge cases, but by and large Global Warming is happening because we're pulling carbon out of the ground and putting it in the sky.

The catch is, modern agriculture isn't limited to "surface-level biology."

>All of the carbon you exhale to the atmosphere comes from the food you eat, which gets its carbon from the atmosphere via photosynthesis.

This is true, but also misleading. When you include the nitrous oxide, methane, diesel fuel, and loss of soil carbon, agriculture is actually net CO2e positive.

>Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (24% of 2010 global greenhouse gas emissions): Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector come mostly from agriculture (cultivation of crops and livestock) and deforestation. This estimate does not include the CO2 that ecosystems remove from the atmosphere by sequestering carbon in biomass, dead organic matter, and soils, which offset approximately 20% of emissions from this sector.

So in other words, globally our agriculture emits 5 units of CO2e for every 1 unit sequestered by photosynthesis.

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emiss...

https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report/ghg_nit...

When you include the entire supply chain from field-to-fork (agriculture, transport, refrigeration, processing, preparation) the general rule of thumb is that 10 kilocalories of fossil fuel energy go into making 1 kilocalorie of food.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/10-calories-...

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#64

Post by foota »

greenyoda wrote: post #17
DannyBee wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's California for you: The people who use the lanes, by and large, don't need them[1], and simultaneously, California subsidizes and encourages electric car driving while having, by far, the absolute worst electrical infrastructure in the country, with no real plan to improve it[2] Don't worry, somehow, they are saving the environment in all this, despite the fact that most cars these days probably put out less e…

"The same is even more true of the US, I did the math out in an earlier HN post, IIRC it comes out to something ridiculous like double or triple all current residential electric usage on a yearly basis." In NYC, we get uncomfortably close to peak electrical capacity on hot summer days, to the point where the utilities beg us to reduce consumption (e.g., e-mails at work saying the power company is asking us to turn of…

If demand substantially increases then more baseload capacity will likely be built.

And it looks like New York peaks at around 4-5pm, with a drop off around 8-10pm. EVs will likely charge at night, meaning they won't have as much impact on the peak.

Edit: source for load http://mis.nyiso.com/public/htm/isolf/20170705isolf.htm

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#65

Post by izacus »

jondubois wrote: post #48

I wonder if Tesla is worried that this new model might cannibalize its more expensive, more profitable model S? Also, I should think that the level of automation required to produce a mass market car on the scale necessary to be profitable would be insane... And I bet Toyota, GM and all the others have patents on many, if not all of these production automation technologies.

How can a 100.000EUR car (ultra-premium market) be cannibalized by a 35.000EUR car (family limo / hatchback market)?

I don't see people that can easily drop a 100k on a car decide that they're suddenly buy an average Joe car.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#66

Post by jjeaff »

foota wrote: post #64
greenyoda wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The same is even more true of the US, I did the math out in an earlier HN post, IIRC it comes out to something ridiculous like double or triple all current residential electric usage on a yearly basis." In NYC, we get uncomfortably close to peak electrical capacity on hot summer days, to the point where the utilities beg us to reduce consumption (e.g., e-mails at work saying the power company is asking us to turn of…

If demand substantially increases then more baseload capacity will likely be built. And it looks like New York peaks at around 4-5pm, with a drop off around 8-10pm. EVs will likely charge at night, meaning they won't have as much impact on the peak. Edit: source for load http://mis.nyiso.com/public/htm/isolf/20170705isolf.htm

They will have to setup some kind of timer or incentive to charge off peak, because otherwise, most cars are going to be plugged in around 5 to 6 right when people pull into their garage.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#67

Post by stupidcar »

Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set.

Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things are considered unthinkable and impossible only until someone finds a way to do them, after which they are retroactively declared obvious and inevitable.

Certainly, Tesla seem to have the right ideas: Electric cars are inherently simpler, mechanically speaking, than gasoline cars, and they're leveraging this further by reducing the options and variability on the Model 3 to the absolute minimum. They also hired Peter Hochholdinger from Audi as VP of production, and he is pursuing a pretty extreme form of Industry 4.0[1] — with everything in their production process being instrumented, automated and designed for easy replacement.[2]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0 [2] http://www.mljournal-digital.com/meleadershipjournal/october...

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#68

Post by izacus »

stupidcar wrote: post #67
Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

I'm not sure how realities of production get beaten by "ideas". Yes, Tesla has excellent design and approach. That won't help them magically build in volume. Or quality - even very expensive Model S cars aren't really a paragon of build quality in their class.

Steve Jobs didn't promise production of 300mil iPhones in a year when they announced it.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#69

Post by jondubois »

philjohn wrote: post #61
jondubois wrote: post #48

I wonder if Tesla is worried that this new model might cannibalize its more expensive, more profitable model S? Also, I should think that the level of automation required to produce a mass market car on the scale necessary to be profitable would be insane... And I bet Toyota, GM and all the others have patents on many, if not all of these production automation technologies.

I doubt it, suspect it's more likely to open them up to a whole new market. For example, I would never consider dropping $90k on a car (unless I was earning many multiples of that a year), but $35k on a car that has the right range for me, and many of the mod cons of the grown up version? That's more likely. Ask yourself this - why would anyone buy an A1, A3 or A4 when there is the A5, A7, TT and R8/RS8 from Audi? Be…

Maybe a lot of people wanted to own a Tesla so badly that they were willing to stretch their finances to get it. Tesla has had a lot of hype, it can have that effect on people. In some European countries, there are Taxi drivers who drive Teslas (often for economical reasons).

Now these people can own a Tesla without hurting their bank account. I think that there is a reason why car brands are either luxury or mass market but not both.

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