Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

mobile.nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 218 posts

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#71

Post by Munkum »

stupidcar wrote: post #67
Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

The body on an electric car is basically no different to an ICE car. The floor is flatter and thicker to accommodate the battery pack and no need for a tunnel to accommodate the drive train, but other than that they're about the same.

Tesla will almost certainly be using a combination of materials on the model 3; mild steels (cheap and cheerful, easy to press), aluminium (lightweight) and boron steels (strong). To join these materials you need a variety of techniques including resistance spot welding, aluminium RSW (altogether more difficult than steel because of the low melting point and high conductivity, and the fact that weld spatter sticks to the tip of the gun), riveting (for steel-Al joints), structural adhesives, flow drill screws, laser welds etc. All of these processes take serious time to calibrate and get right, and some are not all that robust (by high volume standards).

There are many quality loops with a vehicle launch. The tooling needs to be proven out. Tools get shimmed relentlessly to make up for panel variations - panel quality can vary from batch to batch within a press run. This is especially true for mixed material cars.

Believe me, these are not easy problems to solve and nothing I've seen and heard out of Tesla makes me think they've addressed any of these issues.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#72

Post by nradov »

stupidcar wrote: post #67
Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

If electric cars are so simple, why is the Tesla Model S so unreliable?

https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-S/reliability-1095

Conversely, the Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars. Yet it is mechanically complex with both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, plus a CVT. So clearly engineering skill and manufacturing quality are bigger factors than the drive train.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#73

Post by Kluny »

Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

Commenting to remind myself to check back later and see if you were right!

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#74

Post by alasdair_ »

Animats wrote: post #29
prawn wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't have an issue with them being supposed "rich people lanes" if it's how companies gradually bring EVs to market and eventually to lower price points.

LA already has "rich people lanes".[1] There are paid toll transponders that let cars drive in the express lane. Price is about $1/mile. [1] https://www.metroexpresslanes.net/en/home/index.shtml

Seattle also has these. Dynamic pricing based on congestion charges between 50c and $7.50. After that price it's HOV only.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#75

Post by gambiting »

jondubois wrote: post #69
philjohn wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt it, suspect it's more likely to open them up to a whole new market. For example, I would never consider dropping $90k on a car (unless I was earning many multiples of that a year), but $35k on a car that has the right range for me, and many of the mod cons of the grown up version? That's more likely. Ask yourself this - why would anyone buy an A1, A3 or A4 when there is the A5, A7, TT and R8/RS8 from Audi? Be…

Maybe a lot of people wanted to own a Tesla so badly that they were willing to stretch their finances to get it. Tesla has had a lot of hype, it can have that effect on people. In some European countries, there are Taxi drivers who drive Teslas (often for economical reasons). Now these people can own a Tesla without hurting their bank account. I think that there is a reason why car brands are either luxury or mass ma…

I live in UK and I see loads of Teslas as taxis, which is almost unthinkable considering the cost of the car - and I don't mean luxury taxis, I mean it's common to see a normal curb-side taxi as a tesla. I suspect the fact that it's extremely cheap to run and tax balances off very high leasing cost and makes it worth it. I imagine nearly 100% of those sales will turn into Model 3s as soon as it's available.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#76

Post by gambiting »

izacus wrote: post #65
jondubois wrote: post #48

I wonder if Tesla is worried that this new model might cannibalize its more expensive, more profitable model S? Also, I should think that the level of automation required to produce a mass market car on the scale necessary to be profitable would be insane... And I bet Toyota, GM and all the others have patents on many, if not all of these production automation technologies.

How can a 100.000EUR car (ultra-premium market) be cannibalized by a 35.000EUR car (family limo / hatchback market)? I don't see people that can easily drop a 100k on a car decide that they're suddenly buy an average Joe car.

I have some people at work who really want a Tesla. Like they would never ever consider spending 100k Euro on a Merc S class or an Audi A8, but they are willing to take on a huge financial commitment just to drive a Tesla - it's a brand + hype thing. I suspect that most of them will end up getting a Model 3 instead since that's far more into their price bracket.

I still think you are right - if you can "easily" drop 100k on a model S you are not going to buy the Model 3 instead. But if you were saving up for a model S and would have eventually bought it had Model 3 not became available, then yeah, Model 3 has just cannibalized those sales.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#77

Post by icelancer »

jondubois wrote: post #69
philjohn wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt it, suspect it's more likely to open them up to a whole new market. For example, I would never consider dropping $90k on a car (unless I was earning many multiples of that a year), but $35k on a car that has the right range for me, and many of the mod cons of the grown up version? That's more likely. Ask yourself this - why would anyone buy an A1, A3 or A4 when there is the A5, A7, TT and R8/RS8 from Audi? Be…

Maybe a lot of people wanted to own a Tesla so badly that they were willing to stretch their finances to get it. Tesla has had a lot of hype, it can have that effect on people. In some European countries, there are Taxi drivers who drive Teslas (often for economical reasons). Now these people can own a Tesla without hurting their bank account. I think that there is a reason why car brands are either luxury or mass ma…

Acura has the exact same strategy price/model wise as Tesla, and they've done extremely well. They have their nicer-than-average entry-level car that shaped sport compact cars forever in the Integra, which became the RSX, and is now relaunched as the ILX. It was in the same price range as the Model 3 was for the same idea - average people who wanted to stretch to have a nice car.

Then they have the (now current) TLX, RDX normal SUV, MDX luxury SUV, etc etc and their Model S is the flagship Acura NSX.

Yes, Acura is a "luxury" brand, but so is Tesla, even with the Model 3 out.

(Pretty sure Lexus is similar in branding/pricing with the Integra being equivalent to the IS 300 as the entry-level car, with it being a predominantly luxury brand. Obviously both Acura/Lexus are spinoffs of Honda/Toyota for the US/CAN market.)

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#78

Post by danmaz74 »

Munkum wrote: post #71
stupidcar wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

The body on an electric car is basically no different to an ICE car. The floor is flatter and thicker to accommodate the battery pack and no need for a tunnel to accommodate the drive train, but other than that they're about the same. Tesla will almost certainly be using a combination of materials on the model 3; mild steels (cheap and cheerful, easy to press), aluminium (lightweight) and boron steels (strong). To jo…

What are you, an expert? We don't need no fracking experts here! How dare you challenge Tesla's PR announcements?? /s

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#79

Post by Shivetya »

jondubois wrote: post #48

I wonder if Tesla is worried that this new model might cannibalize its more expensive, more profitable model S? Also, I should think that the level of automation required to produce a mass market car on the scale necessary to be profitable would be insane... And I bet Toyota, GM and all the others have patents on many, if not all of these production automation technologies.

The power of the other companies would not be their patents or such related to production, its their ability to produce in any number they choose to do so. Hell GM proved they could pivot/etc with speed when they delivered a well developed and beat expectations "affordable" two hundred mile range EV before Tesla.

While its cool Tesla has entered "production" with the model 3 I haven't seen one story on what the actual production line looks like. How many people are hired for it and trained? Did they get all the equipment in, installed, and certified? Surely these can be found out.

I hope this is not like the X launch where some insiders made jokes about the paint being practically wet in regards to how close they cut it getting just the stage vehicles delivered.

the big concerns going forward are obviously cannibalization of the S sales and the fact these cars will be in the hands of people who won't be as accepting of issues as the early adopters have been. its easy to dismiss issues with your third, fourth, or fifth family vehicle. However some of the 3 buyers will be likely pushing their finances and this will be their only or second.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#80

Post by csomar »

gambiting wrote: post #76
izacus wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can a 100.000EUR car (ultra-premium market) be cannibalized by a 35.000EUR car (family limo / hatchback market)? I don't see people that can easily drop a 100k on a car decide that they're suddenly buy an average Joe car.

I have some people at work who really want a Tesla. Like they would never ever consider spending 100k Euro on a Merc S class or an Audi A8, but they are willing to take on a huge financial commitment just to drive a Tesla - it's a brand + hype thing. I suspect that most of them will end up getting a Model 3 instead since that's far more into their price bracket. I still think you are right - if you can "easily" drop…

I don't think these people are a big segment of the market. When you drop from 100k to 35k you are opening the doors for a whole bigger market.
Post reply on HN