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Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

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Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#281

Post by mnarayan01 »

slurple wrote: post #271
Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

Have there been advances in using LIDAR in rain/fog/snow? For all the autonomous car demos this seems like too large of a use case to gloss over...

Yea this seems like the key question. I don't know if Level 5 in two years is feasible, but if it's Level 5 or bust, then LIDAR won't fly (AIUI; would certainly welcome corrections).

On one hand, not pulling in potential safety improvements because they only work in good weather seems wrong, but on the other hand...that might be what needs to happen from a cost/marketing/legal perspective.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#282

Post by stcredzero »

sixQuarks wrote: post #266
unityByFreedom wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He doesn't have any educational background in AI or it's underpinnings. Running open AI doesn't instantly make him an expert. The above comment is from an expert with experience in the self driving space.

his educational background also didn't include rocket science but yet spaceX has succeeded. If you'd like to put money where your mouth is, I'd happily do a wager with you. Tesla will be the first to have a fully autonomous vehicle - care to bet against that?

I made the same type of wagers with Thunderf00t with regards to SpaceX. No taker!

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#283

Post by sametmax »

unityByFreedom wrote: post #259
sixQuarks wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My thoughts exactly. Elon Musk is not known for vaporware or BSing. If he says something is doable, there's a good reason for it. Musk has a combination of vision, an understanding of physics, and execution ability unmatched by any other person (in my opinion). To say that he has painted himself in a corner is highly misinformed.

He doesn't have any educational background in AI or it's underpinnings. Running open AI doesn't instantly make him an expert. The above comment is from an expert with experience in the self driving space.

And people from NASA and the CNES said space x was moot.

Can we just let the man try without being annoying the whole way ?

Or do something that helps ?

Or do something at all to understand that it's hard enough and that you really don't need a thousand voices enumerating all the reasons you might fail ?

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#284

Post by cr0sh »

LMYahooTFY wrote: post #241
pkulak wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I kinda tuned out when you mentioned lidar like it's some requirement for autonomous driving. Lidar is AMAZING for giving press demos on sunny days. For the real world with rain, snow, leaves, plastic bags, etc? Useless. The future is radar + cameras + a LOT of software blood, sweat and tears.

Isn't Tesla parterned with Nvidia to solve the computation side of things? I thought I remembered Nvidia presenting some additional stuff about it in their Tech demo recently.

I know Karpathy wasn't involved in the "end-to-end" research paper Nvidia published - but I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't involved somehow, and if anyone could push the CNN tech in that paper further it just might be Karpathy.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#285

Post by justin66 »

oblio wrote: post #265
justin66 wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, with "really cheap" you're talking about a species of cars that I'm unfamiliar with. Here in the US, the sensors and control fly by wire that Lexus used a few years ago have largely trickled down to the Corolla and the like as a standard feature. The differences between making autonomy work on low end and high end cars will be purely a software problem. That's not the kind of additional work that takes thirty yea…

The difference is not purely a software problem. It's a price problem since you need to install a bazillion sensors, motors and other thingies which are basically used only for one purpose. And regarding really cheap, you're on HackerNews, ergo less likely to ever meet those. But it's usually cheap models from cheaper brands such as Dacia, Hyunday, Kia, Tata, several of the Chinese brands. I doubt most people you kno…

> It's a price problem since you need to install a bazillion sensors, motors and other thingies which are basically used only for one purpose.

That's an overstatement. You need to install sensors, many of which you'd install anyway for the modern lane-keeping and crash avoidance features. The sensors are not ruinously expensive and economy of scale incentivizes an automaker that makes both cheap and expensive cars to get these features out to the low end very quickly. As Animats pointed out, you really want to order this stuff by the million, not the thousand.

I guess I wasn't arguing with the crux of what you're saying - having a feature is generally going to be more expensive than not having it. The overstatement was very strong, especially in terms of timeline for reducing the costs of this functionality.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#286

Post by unityByFreedom »

sixQuarks wrote: post #266
unityByFreedom wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He doesn't have any educational background in AI or it's underpinnings. Running open AI doesn't instantly make him an expert. The above comment is from an expert with experience in the self driving space.

his educational background also didn't include rocket science but yet spaceX has succeeded. If you'd like to put money where your mouth is, I'd happily do a wager with you. Tesla will be the first to have a fully autonomous vehicle - care to bet against that?

> Tesla will be the first to have a fully autonomous vehicle - care to bet against that?

Yes, I would. Google is way ahead in the tech. Nevermind that they don't have a product. If we're talking strictly about the tech, Tesla is and always has been far behind

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#287

Post by unityByFreedom »

sametmax wrote: post #283
unityByFreedom wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He doesn't have any educational background in AI or it's underpinnings. Running open AI doesn't instantly make him an expert. The above comment is from an expert with experience in the self driving space.

And people from NASA and the CNES said space x was moot. Can we just let the man try without being annoying the whole way ? Or do something that helps ? Or do something at all to understand that it's hard enough and that you really don't need a thousand voices enumerating all the reasons you might fail ?

I think it helps to give constructive criticism.

Musk is adamant that lidar isn't necessary. Many disagree and are voicing their opinions on that.

I also think his view that strong ai is around the corner is detrimental to the industry. He is overhyping things and potentially creating an expectation whose investments reality won't support.

So, when I spend time pointing out he is not an expert in the ai space, it is to soften his outlandish predictions in the space, and help bring a more realistic perspective on who is talking and who knows what they're talking about.

I think Musk will contribute something to the self driving and AI space, just not in the way he claims.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#288

Post by pvg »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #211
pvg wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, you didn't but as you can see in this thread, it's trivially interpretable in lots of other ways. Which is exactly why it is usually not put that way. This doesn't seem like a complicated thing at all.

As another poster said, though, you're basically asking for more BS, wishy washy corporate-speak, wish is often what people on this forum rail against. Damned if you do, damned in you don't.

I'm not asking for anything. You were asking something and I tried to offer an explanation. The answer is mostly 'because lots of other people don't feel the same way as you on a (relatively minor and subjective) point of interpretation.' Applies just as well to your feelings about 'BS, wishy washy corporate-speak'.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#289

Post by Animats »

Matthias247 wrote: post #170
Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

> Prediction: 2020 will be the year the big players have self-driving. I think that depends on what you mean with self-driving. My prediction is that in 2020 we will have slightly better driver assistance systems. Maybe a lane assist system which won't kill me if I don't babysit it on a road with construction ongoing and multiple lane markings or if corners get too tight. Maybe some limited self-driving, e.g. only av…

2020 is the year major manufacturers say they will have self-driving cars on the market.

- Volvo [1] - Chrysler [2] - Ford [3] (2021) - GM [4] (2018, first live test fleet) - Toyota [5] (although they just started with self-driving)

[1] https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/volvo-predicts-fully-autn... [2] https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2017/04/25/google-s... [3] http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/16/technology/ford-self-driving... [4] http://fortune.com/2017/02/17/gm-lyft-chevy-bolt-fleet/ [5] https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyota-aims-to-make-self-drivin...

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#290

Post by lianqiao9 »

Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

Full autonomous is conflict with Tesla's business model: selling cars. I think Tesla's real goal is to build the easiest driving massive production car. Massive production means the car always need a person to baby sit. For full autonomous, they don't need massive production (>10M units) to build the service network.
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