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Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

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Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#271

Post by slurple »

Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

Have there been advances in using LIDAR in rain/fog/snow? For all the autonomous car demos this seems like too large of a use case to gloss over...

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#272

Post by samstave »

dheera wrote: post #245
Matthias247 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Prediction: 2020 will be the year the big players have self-driving. I think that depends on what you mean with self-driving. My prediction is that in 2020 we will have slightly better driver assistance systems. Maybe a lane assist system which won't kill me if I don't babysit it on a road with construction ongoing and multiple lane markings or if corners get too tight. Maybe some limited self-driving, e.g. only av…

I am curious about what percentage of accidents are caused by the driver falling asleep, and if a lot of lives could be saved by a driver assistance system that self-drives with even the crudest of sensors until the driver is successfully woken up, which would probably be several seconds later.

At a minimum a self-stopping car should be the basic requirement, such that any vehicle which senses lack of input from the driver, or crazy input which is differential to the experience of its sensors, should be able to safely turn on a hazard alarm for all other surrounding vehicles and safely stop itself on the nearest shoulder.

If all sensors indicate that there is no emergency obstacle requiring sudden swerving or braking or what not, the car should be able to safely decelerate and stay in a lane etc... but this might be to complex a problem. (I was thinking if a driver may have a seizure or some other episode - but if a driver is under duress this may be a bad thing)

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#273

Post by samstave »

slurple wrote: post #271
Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

Have there been advances in using LIDAR in rain/fog/snow? For all the autonomous car demos this seems like too large of a use case to gloss over...

I find it funny that people can seemingly flippantly state that Tessa (or any of these cars) have "weak sensor systems" as if it is such a trivial problem.

"Well, there's your problem right there, let's just slap on some strong sensors and you should be good to go!"

You know what has a weak sensor system? Any car without any sensors.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#274

Post by cr0sh »

oblio wrote: post #261
justin66 wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The notion that the low end cars will take decades longer is very, very ridiculous.

Ummm... how many cheap cars have: adaptive cruise control or lane assist? Both technologies have been available for expensive cars for what now? 15 years? Really cheap cars don't even have automatic gearboxes (or they are bought without them 90% of the time, outside of the US). By "cheap car" I mean something cheaper than $20000 and "really cheap" would be below $12-15000.

Here in the US I don't even think you can buy a "really cheap" car; my current vehicle is a used Jeep TJ and it set me back $18k (great condition though - still, I overpaid a bit, but I consider it the price for getting the options I wanted on the vehicle).

While I'm sure there are probably new (or relatively new) vehicle out there sub-$15k, they probably aren't much to write home about. Certainly nothing I want (that's just my personal wants - for instance, if it ain't 4wd and/or it can't be lifted, I don't want it).

As far as the transmission is concerned, here in the US most vehicles can't be bought without an automatic. Manual transmissions are becoming the exception; most car models don't even have them as an option. The few that do (mostly trucks and sports cars) have seen declining sales of the option (and I wouldn't be surprised if it actually costs more to get it!).

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#276

Post by BoorishBears »

taneq wrote: post #248
BoorishBears wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was it? Weren't things like Distronic+ w/ Steering Assist (and Audi and BMWs equivalents) almost the same thing?

Similar, but from what I've read, Tesla did it better. I think this was the comparison I was thinking of in particular: http://www.caranddriver.com/features/semi-autonomous-cars-co...

I chalked some of the differences to being more defensive than AP

For example, I'd be surprised if you took one of those competing systems to "fail road" and it started to veer the way Tesla's system does instead of disengaging

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#277

Post by cr0sh »

espadrine wrote: post #220
TeMPOraL wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trick is in our wetware. What the brain does with visual input is not just trivial object recognition. It relies on a complex internal model of the world to both augment the object recognition and to sometimes discard the visual data as invalid. So sure, theoretically cameras would be enough. But we're not yet there with software, we can't use the camera input well enough. So if you can side-step the need for not…

> It relies on a complex internal model of the world to both augment the object recognition and to sometimes discard the visual data as invalid. That in particular is what makes the hiring fascinating. This problem is Andrej Karpathy’s expertise[0]. His CNN/RNN designs have reached comfortable results, in particular showcasing the ability to identify elements of a source image, and the relationship between different…

I think LIDAR will have a place, if they can get the per-sensor cost down to something reasonable (under $500.00 per sensor, for 3D 180 degree with at least 32 vertical res beams - or the equivalent).

But I think first we'll see cars utilizing tech as described in this paper:

https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.07316

...and variations of it to handle other modeling and vision tasks.

Self-driving vehicle systems are amazing complex; it won't ultimately be any single system or sensor, or piece of software or algorithm that solves the problem - it's going to be a complex mesh of all of them working in concert.

And even then, there will be mistakes, injuries, and deaths unfortunately.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#279

Post by cr0sh »

kamaal wrote: post #194
Capt-RogerOver wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty obvious that a self-driving camera-based software would take advantage of headlights on a car, just like a human does? So it never has to drive in full darkness.

Actually you will need more than a camera input, may be even a sound input. In darkness it helps if you can hear the vehicles coming close.

> may be even a sound input

Bingo. When we drive a vehicle, we use so much more than just our eyes to sense the environment, and hearing plays a very large part.

I believe that it is something that warrants research for self-driving vehicle usage; I don't know if anyone has done such research, but I haven't seen any papers on it yet. If not, it seems like an underappreciated sensor aspect that could potentially greatly augment self-driving vehicle capabilities, and would be a very simple and cheap sensor to add to a vehicle as well.

EDIT: Found this recent article...

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604272/a-sense-of-hearing...

While it seems to be focused mainly on diagnosing issues with vehicles before they become larger problems, there are hints about it being used for self-driving tasks as well.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#280

Post by stcredzero »

coldtea wrote: post #236
mandeepj wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no car manufacturer ships cars equipped with LIDAR For love of the god, please do not comment in the public if you do not understand the subject. Take a look at Chrysler + waymo minivans, Volvo + Uber suvs, Mercedes self-driving test cars. They all have lidars.

For the love of god, stop the hyperbole, and try to understand the comments you are answering better. See how condescending this is?

For the love of god, stop the hyperbole, and try to understand the comments you are answering better.

I think that's good advice, very often applicable, even on HN.

Sometimes, s/even/especially/.

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