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Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

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Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#451

Post by bad_hairpiece »

emodendroket wrote: post #388
tbabb wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The "mobility" market will be about the size of the taxi, bus, and train market. - A personal, individual vehicle which comes to pick you up where you are and take you to exactly where you want to go is a much MUCH higher value proposition than public transit. - Add self-driving to the mix, and the cost of that service will plummet. - When the car providing that service can drive itself, then there is little to no…

> Cost of ownership is especially high in cities (parking), and the market for ride sharing is highest. So probably many fewer city dwellers will own cars. If it's really self-driving it can go park wherever. Not very good for the environment, perhaps, but it completely solves that problem.

The farther the car goes to park, the longer the wait for it to pick you up on demand. Not to mention, traveling a few blocks rarely saves much on parking in densely populated areas.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#452

Post by psyc »

dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

There wasn't a doubt in my mind that this would be the top comment. But it is still a milestone, and a trend. Does anybody think that what happened to Apple and Google's market caps wasn't globally significant?

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#453

Post by dorgo »

woodpanel wrote: post #447
username223 wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. What does this even mean? People like to leave stuff in their cars (e.g. mug, gym bag). They like them to be at their preferred level of cleanliness or disorder. Some even use them as a means of personal expression. If "mobility" were so desirable, ZipCar would have taken off 10 years ago. The "mobility" market will be about the…

This 'switch from ownership to mobility'-buzz is one of the most overvalued ideas recently. Much like the Kindle was supposed to kill the book. Why must some people see new inventions always as colossal destroyers of products they don't like instead of the more humble 'enriching ones freedom to choose'?

Wait. But Kindle killed the book. I stopped buying paper books long time ago.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#454

Post by sxates »

wang_li wrote: post #437
jeff_petersen wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> CO2 capture is an area of active research and it's entirely possible that advances there will make Tesla and Solar City moot. I don't know how likely that is. Even if carbon capture comes through, the low hanging fruit of fossil fuels are gone so now we have to get more invasive in harvesting the hard-to-get ones (strip mining, fracking, etc). It's likely that even with C02 emissions taken care of that we'll want e…

I mean capture of CO2 from the air and conversion into a fuel that can be used. Something along the lines of algal farms that soak up sunlight and CO2 from the air and excrete alcohol. Combining solar and the CO2 that has already been released into a liquid fuel suitable for a variety of uses. We could cease raw material extraction entirely.

Seems inefficient. Fossil Fuels work today because you just suck them out of the ground and ta-da! free energy when you burn it. If you have to pump enormous energy into harvesting the carbon so you can burn it and re-harvest it, why not just put that energy straight into the car and cut out the carbon entirely?

The battery is the thing that makes an electric car "expensive" today, but it's following a consistent downward price curve. In ~5-7 years, it will cost more to make an ICE car than an EV car, and then ICE dies. Simple as that.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#455

Post by bad_hairpiece »

clock_tower wrote: post #424
Arelius wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Rush hour" is actually a pretty long distribution of time compared to the average length of a person's commute. I imagine just considering commuting, you could likely get close to half the amount of cars required with car-sharing, since you may get in at 7:30 and I may get in at 9:00. And you could provide good price incentives to convince people to mix up their commute times a bit. I already know people who push th…

This seems as good a place as any to add the familiar lament: Why does no one build new commuter rail in this country? (This assumes that you're also from the US, for rhetorical convenience.)

I think it comes down to cost. Its only effective in very dense areas. For example, right now I'm on an established commuter rail line going from downtown to a suburb. I'm paying $12 round trip to travel 60 miles total. It's just barely cheaper than driving (not including parking expenses).

At this point in time, I think it's wise to avoid laying costly new tracks with the dawn of driverless cars on the horizon.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#456

Post by icedchai »

criley2 wrote: post #377
Judgmentality wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some people just like owning cars. I live in San Francisco and don't currently own a car, but I want one. Perfect example where Uber fails - I can't take my dog anywhere. Different people have different values. Also I'm quite young, so I don't think age is a strict delineation.

"Some people just like owning cars." Yes I did point out that most Americans and many people are conditioned from birth to value car ownership, even when it's a poor financial decision. "Perfect example where Uber fails - I can't take my dog anywhere As I told the other guy: Stop predicting failure based on problems, put on your creator and builder hat, and solve the problem. Why not have pet friendly vehicles availa…

It's not "car ownership" that we value. It's autonomy and independence.

A teenager doesn't just "want a car." He wants that freedom that car gives him... to go somewhere without bugging his parents or friends for a ride. If you're in a big city or someplace where this is not the norm, I could see you believing otherwise.

(And I laughed at "guaranteed clean." Right. All that means is you get a refund when you find the dog turd in the back seat.)

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#457

Post by iaw »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #75
iaw wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More than Tesla: http://www.fordpower.cc/products.aspx?cateid=18

Actual laughter was produced at a generator product page. Fuel has a marginal cost. Stationary battery storage soaks up power when power is cheap, releases it when the cost is higher and energy demand is higher and has a 10 year minimum life.

> Actual laughter was produced at a generator product page.

You must be a blast at cocktail parties then.

>Stationary battery storage soaks up power when power is cheap, releases it when the cost is higher and energy demand is higher and has a 10 year minimum life

I think you're making a few unsubstantiated assumptions here. Primarily that the cost differential in electricity (or the availability of renewables) is broad enough for the Tesla tech to be significantly profitable.

I ran the numbers: a Tesla PW2 gives you ~20.3MWh throughout it's useful life for $5500 limited by power availability and recharge rate. A slightly more powerful Ford generator at $1500 with $4000 worth of diesel fuel would yield ~8.9MWh of anytime power with the ability to run on waste oils and a comparatively perpetual lifespan.

So, 44% the power cost with a power wall but a substantially higher upfront cost, a considerably lower salvage value, and a number of restrictions on it's usage (hope you don't need power during sustained outages in the Northeast).

Any more chuckles?

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#458

Post by seanmcdirmid »

iamacynic wrote: post #436
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every year is potentially a record breaking year for profits. That's how inflation works! India and Africa are going to buy Fords? China has been really nice to Ford, it has kept them afloat while the American market tanked at home, BUT let's not delude ourselves about how Chinese JVs work. Also, China has some weird tax games going on, so its not clear where demand will eventually settle (disclaimer, I lived in Beij…

> Every year is potentially a record breaking year for profits. That's how inflation works! do yourself a favor and never own or run a business. record breaking numbers do not happen by accident or because of inflation. you have a fundamental misunderstanding of what is actually going on here. the analogy you are looking for is "right before the car showed up the record sales of horses looked unstoppable." but you're…

How many years does Ford have record breaking sales? It happens more often than you'd think and doesn't really prove much.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#459

Post by icedchai »

Certhas wrote: post #309
erikpukinskis wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are so many car makers, there is no monopole they could get. Same for solar and batteries. The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. But along with that transition some manufacturers will keep up and others will not. Tesla is hoping to be one of the winners, taking perhaps 25% of the mobility market as the car buying market dries up. Tesla's valuation is also base…

> 's valuation is also based on the idea that clean energy will replace fossil fuels. Last month Tesla sold 10,000 electric vehicles to Fords 2,500. If we are serious about climate change, then sometime in the 2030s [1] we have to stop building new combustion engines. The entire technology platform on which these 6,7 million Ford sales rest is about to be swapped out in little over a decade. [1] https://arstechnica.c…

To put things in perspective, Ford sold over 645,000 vehicles so far this year. Tesla feels massively overvalued.

[1] https://corporate.ford.com/content/dam/corporate/en/investor...

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#460

Post by emodendroket »

bad_hairpiece wrote: post #451
emodendroket wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cost of ownership is especially high in cities (parking), and the market for ride sharing is highest. So probably many fewer city dwellers will own cars. If it's really self-driving it can go park wherever. Not very good for the environment, perhaps, but it completely solves that problem.

The farther the car goes to park, the longer the wait for it to pick you up on demand. Not to mention, traveling a few blocks rarely saves much on parking in densely populated areas.

It can travel way further than "a few blocks" and I'd guess most trips are not so unexpected that it's impossible to accept a delay of 30 minutes or maybe even longer.
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