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Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

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Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#421

Post by seanmcdirmid »

iamacynic wrote: post #396
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just bought an Acura ILX this year and I really like it (despite the reviews that it is just a luxury Civic), and I never even considered buying a Tesla. People misunderstand post car like post PC: it doesn't mean the market is going away, but merely that it is no longer growing . Therefore, WYSIWIG on earnings, because they aren't going to change dramatically. Ya, Ford might have record earnings that are slightly…

http://www.businessinsider.com/2016-was-a-record-breaking-ye... india and africa will be china in 20 years. this is the market that tesla is fighting for a fraction of, not the other way around. you're out of your mind. people like cars. people will spend an irrational amount of money on their cars. they don't give a shit if it pollutes, or kills people, or doesn't because it drives itself sometimes. the trends show…

Every year is potentially a record breaking year for profits. That's how inflation works!

India and Africa are going to buy Fords?

China has been really nice to Ford, it has kept them afloat while the American market tanked at home, BUT let's not delude ourselves about how Chinese JVs work. Also, China has some weird tax games going on, so its not clear where demand will eventually settle (disclaimer, I lived in Beijing for most of 2016). Other countries have and will follow similar home-grown biases.

You seem to have a bullish outlook on Ford, I don't know. I don't see them as a tech company, they make cars, they always have and always will, nothing will change for them. They aren't aiming for a shot at more greatness than they already have.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#422

Post by Robotbeat »

wang_li wrote: post #371
Certhas wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 's valuation is also based on the idea that clean energy will replace fossil fuels. Last month Tesla sold 10,000 electric vehicles to Fords 2,500. If we are serious about climate change, then sometime in the 2030s [1] we have to stop building new combustion engines. The entire technology platform on which these 6,7 million Ford sales rest is about to be swapped out in little over a decade. [1] https://arstechnica.c…

> If we are serious about climate change, then sometime in the 2030s [1] we have to stop building new combustion engines. Or there might be a breakthrough in carbon capture, converting atmospheric CO2 into petroleum and we can drive combustion engines forever. CO2 capture is an area of active research and it's entirely possible that advances there will make Tesla and Solar City moot.

Even if CO2 to petroleum were 100% efficient, you're still throwing away 70+% of the energy by burning it in an ICE rather than putting it in a battery as electricity.

Any likely method of CO2 to petroleum is likely to be below 50%, more like 15-30% efficient. Round-trip efficiency an entire order of magnitude worse than battery. That's why batteries are better for ground-based applications and will remain so.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#423

Post by clock_tower »

criley2 wrote: post #380
username223 wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not "personal belongings," it's "personal space." Hot-sheeting happens where sleeping space is extremely limited, like oil drilling camps, but it hasn't taken off among the general population, despite the fact that you only use your bed for around 1/3 of the day. People are willing to pay for their own beds and, frequently, their own apartments or houses, despite the fact that most of that space goes unused most…

Conflating a home and a car is a bad argument. Homes have been required for hundreds of thousands of years. Shelter has been a human need since before humanity. Cars have not been. The earliest proto-human sought shelter from a storm. They did not seek personalized shelter during transportation. I don't like the argument at all, and I think it's a cop out, a slippery slope argument. >Do you AirBnB your bed (at hourly…

> Conflating a home and a car is a bad argument. Homes have been required for hundreds of thousands of years. Shelter has been a human need since before humanity.

> Cars have not been. The earliest proto-human sought shelter from a storm. They did not seek personalized shelter during transportation.

Are you familiar with New World Economics' discussion of "really narrow streets"? One thing the author points out (in "Let's Take a Trip to an American Village") is that even in the 19th century, the US was very interested in what he calls "My Personal Means of Transportation" -- the fashionable thing to do was to have a carriage house, no matter how little you actually needed a carriage. I think you see less of this pattern elsewhere in the world (or else you just see less wealth; consider how "pedestrian" seldom has positive connotations and "equestrian" never has negative ones), but there's definitely an enthusiasm for personal transport in the US.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#424

Post by clock_tower »

Arelius wrote: post #417
bluGill wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. I like knowing that there are extra diapers and a change of clothing for each kid in my car should I need them. I carry enough in to cover my current needs, but as anyone with kids known sometimes that isn't enough. I know many people who keep golf clubs in their car because sometimes a salesman is looking to round out a 4-some. I like going to walmart/lowes... over lunch and leaving my treasures in my car.…

"Rush hour" is actually a pretty long distribution of time compared to the average length of a person's commute. I imagine just considering commuting, you could likely get close to half the amount of cars required with car-sharing, since you may get in at 7:30 and I may get in at 9:00. And you could provide good price incentives to convince people to mix up their commute times a bit. I already know people who push th…

This seems as good a place as any to add the familiar lament: Why does no one build new commuter rail in this country?

(This assumes that you're also from the US, for rhetorical convenience.)

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#426

Post by hodder »

hodder wrote: post #223

Can anyone long the stock who is bullish about the future growth of production, cars, batteries etc write down some quick napkin math on future expectations that would justify your investment at this valuation? I have yet to hear a bull case with any actual math behind it, but am willing to hear you out. Something like: cars sold by yr, Margins. battery wall, solar sold by year. Margins. multiples assumed on revenue…

It appears that no one has even presented napkin math to justify the price. Total addressable market is interesting, but doesn't even qualify as napkin math without even a rough idea of margins, capital needed, rough growth rates.

I am basically seeing an argument that Tesla is smart and will figure out ways to make money to justify a 50B mcap. That may be true, but I was hoping for more.

I will likely buy puts on this once the squeeze subsides.

All arguments so far I would basically describe as hand-waving which gives me more confidence that the market is too optimistic.

All that said, if you have been long this, congratulations.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#427

Post by aianus »

simplyluke wrote: post #339
bluGill wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What innovation is Tesla making? Electric cars are not new. In fact the first production car to reach 60mph back in the day was electric. Aluminum in a production car is a lot more innovative that an electric car. (li batteries in a production car though is innovative)

The dunning kruger effect is super prominent in the tech community's discussions of Tesla. Plenty of other manufactures are doing innovative things with automation, technology, etc. Not to mention most of them can build a higher quality interior/driver experience for far less than what Tesla wants for a Model S

It's 2017 and a $60,000 Audi still won't let you start it up remotely from your phone and run the heater/AC so it's comfortable by the time you leave your house.

Seems like the most basic, obvious, easy to implement feature but they still can't manage it. Apparently because it's "illegal in Germany" to have a car running without an operator behind the wheel. What a joke.

Tesla will wipe the floor with them.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#428

Post by capkutay »

sceew wrote: post #414
sxates wrote: post #140

I think these comparison's to other car companies really miss the mark. Those who are long on TSLA (myself included) aren't looking at them as a car company. Tesla is cracking open new markets in the following areas: - Electric Cars (most visible. Also don't undervalue their unique direct sales channel, which is a huge competitive advantage) - Batteries/Energy Storage (not just cars - utility scale energy storage, wi…

How is GM irrelevant in self-driving AI? They acquired Cruise Automation: https://www.getcruise.com/ or https://fortunedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/cru10_c.jp... .

Making acquisitions and executing on a cutting edge market opportunity are two different things. When GM adds something unique to the AI transportation market, then they'll be relevant. As of now they're just an outsider trying to get in.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#429

Post by sxates »

bischofs wrote: post #394
sxates wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Tesla's EVs are outselling everyone else combined, even with an average sale price that's double everyone else. 2. Tesla is partnered with Panasonic, but they're practically married with communal property. They haven't outsourced this, they've put billions into building a gigafactory. What part of "doubling global output of lithium batteries" is minuscule to you? 3. In 20 years, probably half the world's electrici…

1. Nope. Are you just pulling numbers from a hat? Nissan sold 14,000 leafs last year, add that to the 24,000 volts and the 8,000 i3s and you get more than the model S. 2. Im saying the current business is minuscule, if we looked at elons promises as gospel (which you apparently do) we would have had a model x three years ago. LGchem and Samsung SDI are more than capable to meet the demand of the current lithium batte…

1. "Tesla delivered over 76,000 vehicles in 2016" [1]. My math may be rusty, but I'm pretty sure I'm right that they're outselling everyone combined with $100k cars. They're tracking to over 100,000 for 2017.

2. Several billion dollars worth of capital investments disagree with you. And what's important isn't the current market, but the future market - these things are growing and production bottlenecks kill growth.

3. Again, look at the trend lines not just what it is today.

4. A golf you buy today will keep lanes, and will never do anything better. A Tesla has all the hardware needed for Level 5 autonomy (which they've demo'd, but requires regulatory approval), and it's a software update away. And their whole fleet is sensors-on all the time, whether you're using it or not to enable that, which is not true for any other vehicle manufacturer. Google is the only other company that's close.

I'm no disciple, but I can see where the puck is going to be.

[1] http://www.theverge.com/2017/1/3/14159292/tesla-q4-2016-deli...

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#430

Post by zeveb »

aianus wrote: post #427
simplyluke wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dunning kruger effect is super prominent in the tech community's discussions of Tesla. Plenty of other manufactures are doing innovative things with automation, technology, etc. Not to mention most of them can build a higher quality interior/driver experience for far less than what Tesla wants for a Model S

It's 2017 and a $60,000 Audi still won't let you start it up remotely from your phone and run the heater/AC so it's comfortable by the time you leave your house. Seems like the most basic, obvious, easy to implement feature but they still can't manage it. Apparently because it's "illegal in Germany" to have a car running without an operator behind the wheel. What a joke. Tesla will wipe the floor with them.

Why would I want to install an app from a carmaker on my phone, complete with privacy-invading spyware, when I could just use the keyfob to do it?
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