Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#271

Post by alasdair_ » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:44 PM UTC

samstave wrote: post #193

Spooky23 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market makes mistakes over value all of the time. Look at the sad tale of post-bankruptcy Kmart, and how they used hype, valuation and newly available credit to gobble up Sears. Predicable trainwreck ensued. Tesla is alike and different. They have an amazing management team, Apple-like religious fervor/hype machine, but a marginal product category. Their continued growth is only possible as long as they can convi…

Interesting comment. I'd say that the way they are convincing the public is with a very well engineered product line that is also a big fuck-you to big-oil. The only people that like big-oil are the people who work for and profit off big oil. Musks empire is growing in ways ford could only dream of. People love the machines they make. Ford can add body stylings all they want, but they can't match tesla or spacex or s…

>I'm actually surprised we haven't heard of any of the big three going all out attempting to acquire tesla.

I'm not. The big three don't have enough cash to pay the market cap multiple needed to gain control, especially now that Tesla is bigger than Ford.

No sane lender would loan the money to one of the big three to do it either - first, the money would be better spent just buying Tesla stock and second, there is no way that Tesla would be run better by pulling it into one of the big three car comnpanies, none of which have a strong non-incremental innovation culture.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#272

Post by Hydraulix989 » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:45 PM UTC

dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

Meanwhile, this very same day, another article topped HN:

"Ford tops list of automated driving leaders in Navigant study. Tesla ranks 12th"

https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/03/ford-tops-the-list-of-auto...

Like parent said, market cap isn't everything.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#273

Post by erikpukinskis » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:45 PM UTC

allendoerfer wrote: post #252

crabasa wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!"

> Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." > Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!" I think becoming as big as Ford already is, is one of Tesla's most positive possible futures if all of their many ideas play out. But they are already valued higher than that. How can this possibly work? There…

> There are so many car makers, there is no monopole they could get. Same for solar and batteries.

The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. But along with that transition some manufacturers will keep up and others will not. Tesla is hoping to be one of the winners, taking perhaps 25% of the mobility market as the car buying market dries up.

Tesla's valuation is also based on the idea that clean energy will replace fossil fuels. If that happens, the battery market will grow by orders of magnitude. Tesla will basically take the market from coal and petroleum.

They don't need a monopoly in either of these to justify their valuation. Simply get 10% of mobility and 10% of electricity storage and they'll have justified well above their current valuation.

Remember mobility services will subsume much of public transit and shipping too. The borders between industries are moving around. You can't just ask "how much of industry X will Tesla get?" because whole industries will ascent and others will wither as we transition to sustainable energy.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#274

Post by paulpauper » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:45 PM UTC

hackuser wrote: post #257

hackuser wrote: post #237

Often discussed outside HN, but almost never heard here: Many are investing in his relationship with President Trump. At least two major investment banks [0][1][2] advised their clients of it and many other observers and investors think so too. [3][4] Again, outside HN it's not an uncommon idea; just search a news aggregator for "musk trump". EDIT: It's a very serious problem if we lose free market competition, and i…

@dang, @mods: I don't care about this one comment, and obviously HN is your forum and you can score things however you want. However, please let us know your policies so that commenters can willingly follow them and so that they don't waste their valuable time contributing things that are unwanted and will be underutilized (and in fairness those contributions are most of HN's value). Please be open about it (whatever…

I think the placement has a large degree of randomness. Comments with a lot of Karma will rise to the top, and everything else settles in the middle and bottom.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#275

Post by erikpukinskis » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:47 PM UTC

iamacynic wrote: post #251

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is like comparing a spunky startup to an entrenched corporation. Ya, IBM once spent more than Facebook, but Facebook was worth more because it had potential while IBM didn't. Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now and haven't shown an ability to do anything but incremental improvements with their R&D spending. Like we don't expect much more from IBM, we don't expec…

> Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now according to who? your average HN reader who basically hates cars? yeah, sure. the guy who hates cars is bearish on ford, shocking. what about all the people buying raptors and gt350s and fgts and fists and fosts, hand over fist? do you even know what i'm talking about? do these insanely popular cars even register on your radar…

The kind of people who buy raptors and gt350s are a tiny fraction of the market compared to the people who just want to get to work. Tesla isn't interested in car enthusiasts, they want to be the default answer to the question "How do I get from point A to point B for $1?"

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#276

Post by shawkinaw » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:47 PM UTC

crabasa wrote: post #57

dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

> Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!"

More like

Ford investors: "Let me soberly evaluate the company's present and future financial situation before I make any commitments"

Tesla investors: "TAKE MY MONEY"

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#277

Post by erikpukinskis » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:48 PM UTC

ovulator wrote: post #119

dsugarman wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company and it's biggest current hurdle is getting it's production up to meet an enormous demand. The reason it's trading at a higher market cap is because Ford doesn't have any growth potential and Tesla is still trading at a fraction of what it could be. Of course there is still a ton of risk factors for them, but expected value for investing should be based on the chance of s…

What are you basing that trillion dollar evaluation off of? Combining the 5 largest auto manufactures on earth and you are still well short of a trillion dollar company.

Add in the 5 largest oil producers, the 5 largest electric utilities, and the 5 largest public transit systems and you'll get there.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#278

Post by erikpukinskis » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:49 PM UTC

mcguire wrote: post #122

dsugarman wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company and it's biggest current hurdle is getting it's production up to meet an enormous demand. The reason it's trading at a higher market cap is because Ford doesn't have any growth potential and Tesla is still trading at a fraction of what it could be. Of course there is still a ton of risk factors for them, but expected value for investing should be based on the chance of s…

So, when will Tesla be manufacturing 2,500,000 cars per year? Edit: No, really. Ford sold over a million vans, pickups and heavy trucks last year, a market that Tesla has no apparent interest in entering.[1] The Toyota Camry alone sold 428,000 in 2014, the Honda Accord 328,000, the Corolla 340,000, the Ford Fusion 306,000, the Nissan Altima 336,000, and the Honda Civic 326,000.[2] The Tesla Model 3 will presumably be…

Tesla has already announced plans to build vans, pickups, and semis.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#279

Post by emodendroket » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:50 PM UTC

allendoerfer wrote: post #252

crabasa wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!"

> Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." > Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!" I think becoming as big as Ford already is, is one of Tesla's most positive possible futures if all of their many ideas play out. But they are already valued higher than that. How can this possibly work? There…

A lot of these tech company valuations seem pretty questionable, not just Tesla's.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#280

Post by emodendroket » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 6:50 PM UTC

erikpukinskis wrote: post #273

allendoerfer wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." > Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!" I think becoming as big as Ford already is, is one of Tesla's most positive possible futures if all of their many ideas play out. But they are already valued higher than that. How can this possibly work? There…

> There are so many car makers, there is no monopole they could get. Same for solar and batteries. The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. But along with that transition some manufacturers will keep up and others will not. Tesla is hoping to be one of the winners, taking perhaps 25% of the mobility market as the car buying market dries up. Tesla's valuation is also base…

Will they though? Traditional car makers are not ignoring renewables by any means.

From article:

> Dozens of other companies around the world have battery-powered cars on the market, and more are in development. Investors “act as if Tesla has some sort of patented product that cannot be replicated,” said Dave Sullivan, an analyst at researcher AutoPacific Inc.

> “By the end of this decade, there’s going to be some significant choice for consumers looking for an electric vehicle,” he said, calling Tesla’s valuation outpacing Ford’s “mind boggling.”