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Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#121

Post by Lambdanaut »

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #86
stcredzero wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investors and fans say "but, but my stock isn't overvalued! Mine is the exception, its everyone else who is in the bubble!" It was true if you held Google stock.

Google had a search monopoly. It trounced all competition trivially. I remember Google absolutely dominating the market and everyone shifting away from hotbot, yahoo, etc within a year or so. Anyone can, and does, make an electric car now and ones that don't cost $90,000. These aren't remotely comparable scenarios.

You've got impressive hindsight.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#122

Post by mcguire »

dsugarman wrote: post #55
dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company and it's biggest current hurdle is getting it's production up to meet an enormous demand. The reason it's trading at a higher market cap is because Ford doesn't have any growth potential and Tesla is still trading at a fraction of what it could be. Of course there is still a ton of risk factors for them, but expected value for investing should be based on the chance of s…

So, when will Tesla be manufacturing 2,500,000 cars per year?

Edit: No, really. Ford sold over a million vans, pickups and heavy trucks last year, a market that Tesla has no apparent interest in entering.[1] The Toyota Camry alone sold 428,000 in 2014, the Honda Accord 328,000, the Corolla 340,000, the Ford Fusion 306,000, the Nissan Altima 336,000, and the Honda Civic 326,000.[2] The Tesla Model 3 will presumably be in that latter market (although those are roughly $10,000 cheaper), and if Musk is right about scaling his factory to 500,000/year, it will take a big chunk of it (but still, it's $10,000 more). (If it's in the BMW 3-series/Merc. C-class/Lexus range, 500,000/year would eat all of that market.)

[1] https://corporate.ford.com/content/dam/corporate/en/investor...

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-auto-sales/

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#123

Post by spyspy »

FilterSweep wrote: post #115
dsugarman wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company and it's biggest current hurdle is getting it's production up to meet an enormous demand. The reason it's trading at a higher market cap is because Ford doesn't have any growth potential and Tesla is still trading at a fraction of what it could be. Of course there is still a ton of risk factors for them, but expected value for investing should be based on the chance of s…

> Ford doesn't have any growth potential Word? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4031938-ford-potential-grow

That link has no real info on their growth potential, it's just one analyst saying that it has some with no follow up.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#125

Post by stcredzero »

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #86
stcredzero wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investors and fans say "but, but my stock isn't overvalued! Mine is the exception, its everyone else who is in the bubble!" It was true if you held Google stock.

Google had a search monopoly. It trounced all competition trivially. I remember Google absolutely dominating the market and everyone shifting away from hotbot, yahoo, etc within a year or so. Anyone can, and does, make an electric car now and ones that don't cost $90,000. These aren't remotely comparable scenarios.

Lots of people made search engines back then.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#126

Post by dkrich »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111
oculusthrift wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except ford is spending an order of magnitude more than tesla. it's much easier to spend 100 dollars meaningfully than a 100 billion. I also hope you're willing to level the same charge at Google and Apple.

It is like comparing a spunky startup to an entrenched corporation. Ya, IBM once spent more than Facebook, but Facebook was worth more because it had potential while IBM didn't. Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now and haven't shown an ability to do anything but incremental improvements with their R&D spending. Like we don't expect much more from IBM, we don't expec…

What is this based on? Ford has had record profits over the past few years and has continually improved their vehicles and manufacturing processes, including remaking two assembly plants to make aluminum body F 150s. They also invested a billion dollars in Arvo AI and are making aggressive moves into self driving technology.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#127

Post by Arizhel »

jread wrote: post #106
John23832 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

Aside from batteries, supercharger network, and any true desire to actually build nice electric cars. I drove an electric Ford Focus for 2 years, and it was an absolute terrible afterthought of an electric car. It was downright dangerous on wet surfaces with front wheel drive and batteries in the rear, not to mention the horrendous user experience that is Ford Sync. I drive a Tesla now and couldn't be happier.

>not to mention the horrendous user experience that is Ford Sync.

Well that's what you get for buying a car that has Microsoft software running in the infotainment system. The MS-designed Sync system had all kinds of terrible reviews at the time, and it was so bad that it brought Ford way, way down in the "initial quality" surveys, from #1 down to near the bottom IIRC. Do you not do any research before spending a giant amount of money on a car? I spent several months researching my last purchase, a Mazda (I didn't actually spend several months continuously researching it, but I was doing research and test-drives for several months before committing).

To be fair to Ford, though, my understanding is that the latest generation dumped Microsoft and switched to QNX, and should be much improved. While they were using MS, there was no way in hell I'd buy one of their cars. After they switched, I did look into a Focus, but was deterred by all the reports of problems with their DSG transmission.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#128

Post by leggomylibro »

macspoofing wrote: post #109
dsugarman wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company and it's biggest current hurdle is getting it's production up to meet an enormous demand. The reason it's trading at a higher market cap is because Ford doesn't have any growth potential and Tesla is still trading at a fraction of what it could be. Of course there is still a ton of risk factors for them, but expected value for investing should be based on the chance of s…

>Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company... Huh?

I think that line of thought assumes that they pivot from electric cars to batteries, and from batteries to energy in general. Imagine huge, modular atmospheric/solar/geothermal/battery/molten salt combination generator/energy storage plants dotting the globe.

But I mean, couldn't GE do that too? Or Samsung/Murata/Vishay/Maxwell/Panasonic/etc.? It kind of seems like the stocks are trading largely on the strength of Musk's vision. I am kind of okay with letting mad scientists-cum-Bond villains like Musk and Bezos run amok with billions of dollars, though. I mean why not, it's a bit of a wildcard and it makes about as much sense as anything else that's happening right now.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#129

Post by [deleted] »

macspoofing wrote: post #109
dsugarman wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company and it's biggest current hurdle is getting it's production up to meet an enormous demand. The reason it's trading at a higher market cap is because Ford doesn't have any growth potential and Tesla is still trading at a fraction of what it could be. Of course there is still a ton of risk factors for them, but expected value for investing should be based on the chance of s…

>Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company... Huh?

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#130

Post by martinko »

crabasa wrote: post #57
dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

> Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!"

Capex is not included in net income, so your analysis is completely wrong.
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