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Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

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Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

Ford (and all the other car companies) has also huge liabilities - a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines, and costly dealerships that revolve around servicing a hugely complicated contraption made up of hundreds of mechanical parts. Much of this will be of zero value in the near future.

Because Tesla's cars are not "hugely complicated contraption[s] made up of hundreds of mechanical parts?"

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#92
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Companies seek to be viable in the future. If Ford or GM feel that an electric car is on the horizon and that car will eat their (ICE) lunch, they will pivot. I guess you could say the same for Kodak, Blockbuster, and Borders? “The reason is that good management itself was the root cause. Managers played the game the way it was supposed to be played. The very decision-making and resource-allocation processes that a…

I've read the book. None of those companies would even acknowledge their competition. Ford/GM/all other ICE companies acknowledge both Tesla, and the fact that there is a clear runway on oil.

IMO GM is doing a better job of it. While they do have a compliance car (Spark EV), they've also got the Volt and Bolt, and both will be 50 state cars.

Ford has primarily focused on hybrids and there EV offerings are either fleet-only or compliance cars.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#93
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The piece of the puzzle that Ford doesn't currently have is charging stations. Tesla building its supercharger network was a brilliant move because it means that Teslas are comparable to most petrol-fuel vehicles (as far as where you can go), and everybody else isn't. If I buy a Ford, can I drive it to see my family in Northern Minnesota[1]? Because I know that I can take a tesla. That's a really big deal. I know the…

You may want to clarify the non-sequitur there. Yes, Ford doesn't have it's own network of "chargers" (300+ mile recharge in 5 minutes or less), but you know there's a solid network available; in the few places where chargers are lacking, you can easily take extra power units with you (disposably cheap at that). That said, Tesla is pursuing the angle of enabling customers to install their own charging station requiri…

It is a response to this:

>Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#94
Of the major automakers, Toyota probably has the furthest behind ICE platforms. The 5.7L V8 and the 4.6L v6 are 10 years old, and very fuel inefficient compared to the the engines from ford or GM. I think that Toyota really has the most to fear in this case, since they haven't had any success bringing out more efficient ICE/Drivetrains to match the competition, and haven't really managed to scale the hybrid efficiency past the sedan market.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#95

Why doesn't this have a huge benefit to Tesla. They always seem to be short on cash, but if you are worth that much shouldn't cash be super simple to raise for Tesla? Why push for high stock prices if it gives little benefits. Seems like a nutty evaluation even if Tesla knocks over the established players in the future. I do in fact think that there will be an iPhone moment where established players who have not take…

High stock prices, by definition mean that it is easy for Tesla to raise money.

It is the price that Tesla can sell new stock for.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will that actually result in growth for Ford, however? Electric vehicle sales in Ford may displace sales of non-electric vehicles; in other words, the net effect might not be more than zero. This would not really represent growth for Ford, in that case. You are right about some of their resources, however I think it is a mistake to glibly discount the importance of the battery supply and manufacturing (and by extensi…

So if Ford/GM holds on to their huge marketshare with a successful switch to electric, that's a mark against them? Hypothetically, it would cost Ford/GM much less to put a "SuperCharger" at every existing dealership than it would for Tesla's entire basic roll out. Tesla has been successful at marketing thus far, not manufacturing.

No, that isn't what I said -- you are moving the goal post now from "a lot" of growth, to "holding on to their marketshare".

As matter of fact, that was my whole point: Rather than growing "a lot" they may end up just holding on to their marketshare. Whether that is a mark against them or not is for you to decide, when researching investments.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#97
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Companies seek to be viable in the future. If Ford or GM feel that an electric car is on the horizon and that car will eat their (ICE) lunch, they will pivot. I guess you could say the same for Kodak, Blockbuster, and Borders? “The reason is that good management itself was the root cause. Managers played the game the way it was supposed to be played. The very decision-making and resource-allocation processes that a…

I've read the book. None of those companies would even acknowledge their competition. Ford/GM/all other ICE companies acknowledge both Tesla, and the fact that there is a clear runway on oil.

I wouldn't say they didn't acknowledge them, they just didn't know how to fight them.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

Will that actually result in growth for Ford, however? Electric vehicle sales in Ford may displace sales of non-electric vehicles; in other words, the net effect might not be more than zero. This would not really represent growth for Ford, in that case. You are right about some of their resources, however I think it is a mistake to glibly discount the importance of the battery supply and manufacturing (and by extensi…

I completely agree with you that this doesn't represent real growth for Ford. Auto sales have essentially reached peak already; people only need so many cars. Honestly, this is what I find so ridiculous about Tesla's valuation. A valuation that puts them as worth more than Ford then needs Tesla to be selling more vehicles than Ford to justify that valuation.

All of the existing manufacturers have better infrastructure than Tesla and are getting into the hybrid, electric, and autonomous car marketspace. Even if Tesla survives long enough to make a profit I see no way this company ever justifies it's current valuation. Long term I expect huge price drops in Tesla stock.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#99
post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company and it's biggest current hurdle is getting it's production up to meet an enormous demand. The reason it's trading at a higher market cap is because Ford doesn't have any growth potential and Tesla is still trading at a fraction of what it could be. Of course there is still a ton of risk factors for them, but expected value for investing should be based on the chance of s…

> Tesla is potentially a trillion dollar company

A trillion dollars? For a niche/luxury car company? What fantasy is that based on?

> it's biggest current hurdle is getting it's production up to meet an enormous demand

While enormous to Tesla, actual demand is pretty small compared to other car companies.

It doesn't help that even the most "affordable" Tesla is far more expensive than the average competitor's EV or hybrid vehicle[1][2], let alone it's base price (not final sale price) starts off above the average new car purchase price (final sale, after upgrades, etc) for the entire industry[3].

There's a lot of hype around Tesla, but that doesn't mean they're going to take over the auto industry, let alone become larger than the largest auto makers around who produce "Everyday Joe" cars for the rest of the population.

[1] http://evobsession.com/10-best-electric-cars/

[2] http://www.caranddriver.com/best-hybrid-electric-cars

[3] http://mediaroom.kbb.com/new-car-transaction-prices-up-2-per...

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#100
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may want to clarify the non-sequitur there. Yes, Ford doesn't have it's own network of "chargers" (300+ mile recharge in 5 minutes or less), but you know there's a solid network available; in the few places where chargers are lacking, you can easily take extra power units with you (disposably cheap at that). That said, Tesla is pursuing the angle of enabling customers to install their own charging station requiri…

It is a response to this: >Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now

Charging and batteries are literally just partnering and investment issues.
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