Scotland to seek second independence referendum • Hacker News Board

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#101

Post by krona » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:11 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #89

londons_explore wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are serious disadvantages to using someone elses currency though. The scottish government would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control.

> would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control Do you mean "monetary control"? What do you mean by "strongly discourage"? Forced by whom, or by circumstances?

> Forced by whom

Forced by currency speculators. New currencies are always strained, and given an independent Scotland would be close to bankruptcy anyway, a fully-pegged currency would be (how do I say this) difficult.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#102

Post by ruairidhwm » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:11 PM UTC

Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

Disclaimer: I'm Scottish

Really appreciate the well-wishing on it. I would love for there to still be a very open relationship between the two countries. We've got plenty of space up here and a booming tech scene!

Agreed on clarification with the EU membership but I think this is something that the SNP have been working on and that we can expect to see follow-up announcements.

Interesting times!

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#103

Post by Symbiote » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:11 PM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #54

pjc50 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary…

Sweden chose not to join the Euro. Oddly - European nations that don't use the Euro are generally much better off: Norway (though not EU), Denmark, Sweden, UK. In hindsight, the UK's decision to not join the Euro is widely accepted as smart. The Euro is effectively a 'hard Germany currency' that has entrapped the periphery of Europe into a monetary system that massively favours the Germans. Maybe it could have worked…

> Denmark

The Danish Krone is pegged to the Euro, within a very tight margin.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=DKK&to=EUR&view=5Y

And you've missed Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Romania and Bulgaria; these countries don't use the Euro, but aren't usually considered much better off.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#104

Post by k-mcgrady » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:12 PM UTC

mtgx wrote: post #41

byefruit wrote: post #6

What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.

And that's before you mention that he left UK with the most mass surveillance-friendly laws of the western world [1], that would've likely been declared invalid under EU's Charter of Fundamental Rights. There May also played a big role in that. And let's not forget about the "porn filter" that includes much more than just porn, and it will soon become mandatory [2]. Cameron also helped Saudi Arabia [3] become the hea…

I'm certainly no Cameron supporter but The Investigatory Powers Bill was passed under May's government. It also had no real opposition from Labour. We are still subject to EU law and there has already been a ruling in the CJEU (in December 2016) against the UK's surveillance which will have consequences for the IP Act. And the 'porn filter' (Digital Economy Bill) is still being debated so hopefully something can be done about it.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#105

Post by Someone1234 » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:12 PM UTC

krona wrote: post #97

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

Furthermore, given the 99% fall in oil revenue since the previous referendum, the Union dividend (£9bn / year) and a deficit of 10% GDP, and state aid rules within the EU, the economic case for independence has dwindled, to put it mildly. Politically, the case for independence is on the downside; both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have higher net satisfaction rates than Sturgeon in Scotland, and the likelihood of a g…

> both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson higher net satisfaction rates higher than Sturgeon

In Scotland? I'm extremely skeptical.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#106

Post by AimHere » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:12 PM UTC

timthelion wrote: post #78

a_name wrote: post #65

However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia? Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial

Is SNP racist? I honestly don't know. But it seems staying in Europe would suggest a pro-imigrant stance.

SNP are explicitly pro-Immigration. As you'd expect - the population in a large chunk of the land area of Scotland is worried about the effects of depopulation eroding small rural communities.

From their website:

The SNP believe that immigration is essential to the strength of our economy and adds greatly to our cultural fabric. We propose a fair, robust and secure immigration system that meets Scotland’s social and economic needs.

Therefore we will seek, as a priority, the reintroduction of the post study work visa, so that those we have helped educate are able, if they so choose, to make a contribution to our economy.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#107

Post by falsedan » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:16 PM UTC

jankotek wrote: post #98

pjc50 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary…

Scotland is fairly small country, starting their own currency does not make much sense. Monte Negro is using euro, and is not even part of EU yet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montenegro_and_the_euro

Scotland already has three banks issuing their own bank notes (backed by GBP on deposit in their vaults). Independence wouldn't change that, except that the names on the notes would have to be changed from Pounds Stirling.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#108

Post by RobertoG » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:17 PM UTC

BjoernKW wrote: post #76

edblarney wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden chose not to join the Euro. Oddly - European nations that don't use the Euro are generally much better off: Norway (though not EU), Denmark, Sweden, UK. In hindsight, the UK's decision to not join the Euro is widely accepted as smart. The Euro is effectively a 'hard Germany currency' that has entrapped the periphery of Europe into a monetary system that massively favours the Germans. Maybe it could have worked…

This is not entirely true. The Netherlands, Austria, Luxembourg, Belgium and France for example fare just fine with the Euro. The problems you mentioned (and some non-Euro countries being better off) are caused by structural problems in those countries, which are only tangentially related to the common currency. From an economic point of view those countries probably shouldn't have adopted the Euro so quickly in the…

It's difficult fix "structural problems" when the monetary policy is decided by others, and not following your interest.

Whoever thinks the Euro is a success has not been paying attention and probably don't understand how monetary policies (and money) works.

The Euro-area countries has been forced to follow procyclical policies, in a time when govern spending was necessary.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#109

Post by Y_Y » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:17 PM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #54

pjc50 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary…

Sweden chose not to join the Euro. Oddly - European nations that don't use the Euro are generally much better off: Norway (though not EU), Denmark, Sweden, UK. In hindsight, the UK's decision to not join the Euro is widely accepted as smart. The Euro is effectively a 'hard Germany currency' that has entrapped the periphery of Europe into a monetary system that massively favours the Germans. Maybe it could have worked…

> Oddly - European nations that don't use the Euro are generally much better off

So is it that countries that took the euro were hurt by it, or that countries with already strong currencies chose not to take the euro?

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#110

Post by vidarh » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:17 PM UTC

arethuza wrote: post #29

vidarh wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe they are bluffing in the sense that their request will almost certainly be denied at this point, and it may very well be they are banking on that. I certainly think there is a sense that to get a poll on a timeline they want, they need to start pushing now, because they know they can expect resistance.

"their request will almost certainly be denied at this point" I can't imagine anything that would increase support for independence more than any hint that we wouldn't be allowed to have another referendum. [OK - apart from BoJo being PM].

Possibly. And maybe I'm overstating the chance they'll be refused because of course Theresa May will be aware of that. At the same time I expect the Tories to be ultra-sensitive to the reality of the Brexit vote, where people were also quite certain Remain had it in the bag for very long.

At the same time, note Nicola Sturgeon's statements about how this isn't up to Westminster. Legally, of course, it currently is. But she's setting Theresa May up to use a refusal as a "look how undemocratic Westminster is" if it's refused. Look for attempts to bypass Westminster if it's slapped down - which may be serious, or may also be designed out of expectation they'll cause unfavourable reaction to another Westminster slap-down.

Their massive majority of Scottish MPs also mean they will be able to paint any Westminster refusal as England dictating Scottish issues.

It's very much a lose-lose for Theresa May in any case. If a vote is accepted, then it will be a constant distraction during the Brexit negotiations, for example, where any whiff of results negative to Scotland will be exploited for what it's worth...