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Scotland to seek second independence referendum

bbc.com

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Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#11

Post by [deleted] »

m0nty wrote: post #9
grabcocque wrote: post #2

Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too. Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.

I had expected them to wait until 2019 given that's the probable date for the next general election. I think they might be timing this to coincide with Article 70 notification this week. Apart from people's fears about what that will mean, there's a chance of adverse reactions from the markets and business which might focus Scots' minds on what could happen. They're definitely not bluffing. Clue's in the name.

[deleted]

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#12

Post by Arnt »

grabcocque wrote: post #2

Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too. Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.

You may be right, but keep in mind that the SNP managed to take 58 out of 59 possible seats in a recent election. Calling the bluff of someone who can campaign to a result as good as that... hm...

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#13

Post by danielsamuels »

hackerboos wrote: post #7
johansch wrote: post #4

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-show... "Why have the polls not shown a shift towards Scottish independence?"

Latest polls have Yes on 49%. The First Minister needs a big swing in the polls to Yes somewhere in the 6X% to get this to pass. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-in...

I think when the Brexit deal is clearer the swing will effectively be an Scotland's approval rating of the deal.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#14

Post by m0nty »

byefruit wrote: post #6

What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.

Could be worse than that, at least from the viewpoint of the Conservative and Unionist Party, to give them their full (and oft-forgot) name:

> "For the first time in my life, the prospect of a united Ireland is not only credible but inevitable"

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/northern-ireland-stormon...

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#15

Post by vidarh »

grabcocque wrote: post #2

Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too. Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.

Maybe they are bluffing in the sense that their request will almost certainly be denied at this point, and it may very well be they are banking on that.

I certainly think there is a sense that to get a poll on a timeline they want, they need to start pushing now, because they know they can expect resistance.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#16

Post by achanda358 »

m0nty wrote: post #9
grabcocque wrote: post #2

Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too. Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.

I had expected them to wait until 2019 given that's the probable date for the next general election. I think they might be timing this to coincide with Article 70 notification this week. Apart from people's fears about what that will mean, there's a chance of adverse reactions from the markets and business which might focus Scots' minds on what could happen. They're definitely not bluffing. Clue's in the name.

I think you mean Article 50

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#17

Post by pjc50 »

hackerboos wrote: post #7
johansch wrote: post #4

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-show... "Why have the polls not shown a shift towards Scottish independence?"

Latest polls have Yes on 49%. The First Minister needs a big swing in the polls to Yes somewhere in the 6X% to get this to pass. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-in...

Note that that's before the official start of campaigning. During the last campaign it went from something like 35% to 48%, partly due to how godawful the Unionist campaign was.

I don't even know who they might get to do the No campaign who has any credibility in Scotland. The most sensible option is probably Ruth Davidson, so the most likely choice is someone like Blair McDougall. Labour will probably have to spend all their time trying to avoid letting Jeremy Corbyn say anything on the subject.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#18

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

arethuza wrote: post #10
tomtoise wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah yes, like the 'current polling' at the time suggested the UK would definitely remain in the EU, or that President Clinton was a surefire thing.

The "Project Fear" approach was used successfully in the 2014 referendum and then failed in 2016 because very smart political strategists such as Dominic Cummings worked out how to counter it. Given that the approach used to achieve the Brexit vote has been documented in great detail I wonder how we'll see them applied in this new referendum?

The approach used to achieve the Brexit vote was to lie about everything and to write off rational reality-based objections as "Project Fear."

Unfortunately in international politics, winning a vote at home doesn't translate to a winning move internationally.

The huge disconnect between how Brexiters think the world works and how the world really works isn't subject to a popular vote or to media spin. It is going to cause the UK - well, England - catastrophic problems over the coming decade.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#19

Post by m0nty »

achanda358 wrote: post #16
m0nty wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had expected them to wait until 2019 given that's the probable date for the next general election. I think they might be timing this to coincide with Article 70 notification this week. Apart from people's fears about what that will mean, there's a chance of adverse reactions from the markets and business which might focus Scots' minds on what could happen. They're definitely not bluffing. Clue's in the name.

I think you mean Article 50

Yes, probably 2020 on the election too, but there was some talk of a referendum in 2019. Will not edit ... Article 50 possibly as early as tomorrow.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#20

Post by hackerboos »

danielsamuels wrote: post #13
hackerboos wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Latest polls have Yes on 49%. The First Minister needs a big swing in the polls to Yes somewhere in the 6X% to get this to pass. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/scottish-in...

I think when the Brexit deal is clearer the swing will effectively be an Scotland's approval rating of the deal.

You're right. Calling a second referendum is the best way to apply pressure on the UK government.

If the terms are unfavourable to Scotland, they will likely leave the union.

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