Scotland to seek second independence referendum • Hacker News Board

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#71

Post by falsedan » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:43 PM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #50

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed." Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead - and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest. The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do -…

> Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU

It's very likely that Scotland won't remain a EU member (as a successor of a EU member), but no government has said they would veto Scotland's application. The media mentions about this topic are vaguely-worded, to make it sound like it's about Scotland ever becoming an EU member (which it's extremely likely to achieve) versus avoiding having to apply (which is probably not going to happen).

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#72

Post by ruairidhwm » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:43 PM UTC

I'm extremely excited for it. There's a huge amount of division in UK politics, and in Scottish politics.

I suspect that there will be the arguments about currency and EU membership which the UK government will lobby to make life difficult for Scotland, but as the pound is doing poorly and we're leaving the EU anyway, there isn't much to lose.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#73

Post by edblarney » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:43 PM UTC

srssays wrote: post #52

pjc50 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Union has long operated as internal colonialism; this is just the next step in de-colonising the system. It'll be interesting to see how often Conservative ministers promise that there will be no border between UK and ROI but there will be a hard border between England and Scotland, despite none of this making any sense.

In 2014, 55% of Scots voted to stay. If we are to learn the lessons of the Brexit referendum, you need consensus to enact any major change to people's citizenship rights. Consensus there is not.

" If we are to learn the lessons of the Brexit referendum, you need consensus to enact any major change to people's citizenship rights. Consensus there is not."

UK citizens were never given a vote on their 'citizenship' rights in the EU.

UK citizens only voted to join the EEC - not the EU. They voted to join what was essentially a 'trade block'. Not a supra-federal state. (UK citizens were not given a vote on the treaty of Rome.)

The French voted against the treaty of Rome - and guess what? Their Parliament enacted it! How's that for consensus?

Same thing in the Netherlands.

In Ireland, they were forced to 'keep voting until it passed'.

Most other countries did not get a referendum on joining the EU.

There was never any 'popular consensus' on the EU as we know it - it likely may never have existed if it were put to referendum.

I would argue that a 'strong consensus' would be needed to have Scottish, Catalonian or Quebec separation - those are parts of nations.

The EU is not quite the same thing.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#74

Post by pjc50 » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:44 PM UTC

a_name wrote: post #65

However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia? Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial

> racist SNP

Unsubstantiated smear.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#75

Post by matthewmacleod » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:44 PM UTC

a_name wrote: post #65

However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia? Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial

Hello, please remain respectful. It's fine to disagree with the the SNP's policies, but calling them 'racist' is clearly outside the bounds of reason.

To answer your specific point, my understanding is that general noise from Spain is that a Scottish application for EU membership would not be vetoed.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#76

Post by BjoernKW » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:45 PM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #54

pjc50 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary…

Sweden chose not to join the Euro. Oddly - European nations that don't use the Euro are generally much better off: Norway (though not EU), Denmark, Sweden, UK. In hindsight, the UK's decision to not join the Euro is widely accepted as smart. The Euro is effectively a 'hard Germany currency' that has entrapped the periphery of Europe into a monetary system that massively favours the Germans. Maybe it could have worked…

This is not entirely true. The Netherlands, Austria, Luxembourg, Belgium and France for example fare just fine with the Euro.

The problems you mentioned (and some non-Euro countries being better off) are caused by structural problems in those countries, which are only tangentially related to the common currency. From an economic point of view those countries probably shouldn't have adopted the Euro so quickly in the first place but were allowed to do so nonetheless for political reasons.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#77

Post by ruairidhwm » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:45 PM UTC

a_name wrote: post #65

However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia? Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial

I imagine Spain will do as directed by the EC given that the Catalonia argument isn't analagous to Scotland.

I'd strongly disagree with your comment about the SNP being racist but obviously it's a sensitive subject. I view it as being about getting the right deal for Scotland.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#78

Post by timthelion » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:46 PM UTC

a_name wrote: post #65

However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia? Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial

Is SNP racist? I honestly don't know. But it seems staying in Europe would suggest a pro-imigrant stance.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#79

Post by londons_explore » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:47 PM UTC

vidarh wrote: post #58

andy_ppp wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point is the spiteful UK government would deliberately stop Scotland keeping the pound.

They can't stop Scotland from keeping the pound. They can stop Scotland from issuing its own notes valid in the remaining parts of the UK, but there is no way for the UK government to unilaterally decide that Scottish businesses and persons can't use GBP - they will have no jurisdiction over them if Scotland becomes independent.

There are serious disadvantages to using someone elses currency though.

The scottish government would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#80

Post by edblarney » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:47 PM UTC

fiftyacorn wrote: post #64

edblarney wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed." Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead - and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest. The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do -…

Spains issue was that Scotland was separating from an existing member state, and that had implications for them. If the UK isnt part of the EU then the implications and objections are reduced.

The political ramifications are identical - it's not a technical issue.

Spain is desperately afraid of Catalonia departing - and the nuance of 'we left the EU before we joined' won't matter to the voters. Scottish separation and ascension to the EU would carve a crystal clear path for Catalonian separatists, and give massive wind to their sales.

To the above commenters point - no gov will likely ever come out and say it, but there's no reason for Spain to support Scottish ascension, and every reason to be against it.