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Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

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Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#251

Post by mikeash »

idiot_stick wrote: post #250
mikeash wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I stated three specific areas where the Model 3 will be better. These aren't speculation, they're facts. The base Model 3 will be faster 0-60, and it's confirmed that they'll have high-performance options. The Bolt's driver assistance technology is anemic, while we know that the Model 3's will be at least as good as what Tesla is shipping today on the S and X. The charging infrastructure for long distance travel in t…

> These aren't speculation, they're facts. The base Model 3 will be faster 0-60, You know for a fact that a car that doesn't exist yet is faster than one that does? That's interesting. I, on the other hand, will wait until there's a comparable Bolt and Model 3 on the market, with a similar price, to determine what's better. A 3 series BMW is also "better" than Bolt, but that's irrelevant. >"The charging infrastructur…

Yes, Tesla said that the base Model 3 will be under 6 seconds for 0-60, and I'm perfectly confident in trusting them to deliver on that.

"You realize that there are far more regular chargers across the nation than superchargers, right?"

You realize that the vast majority of "regular chargers" are L2 units putting out 6-10kW and are therefore completely worthless for long distance travel? And that the CCS infrastructure is woefully incomplete in the US? And that even if CCS were ubiquitous, the Bolt maxes out at 180MPH charging, which is terrible?

Plan a drive from NYC to LA using the Supercharger network and "regular chargers" and compare how long the trips would take. And that's assuming that the CCS units, which are often installed in single units, aren't blocked or broken.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#252

Post by allenz »

idiot_stick wrote: post #194
crabasa wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Toyota's profits are real. GM's profits are real. BMW's profits are real. Tesla's profits might be great in the future - and that risk means the potential profits are worth less than actual profits. You have this exactly backwards. For instance, you could have made the exact same argument about Walmart versus Amazon. What you're missing is that the investments that Tesla is making, which hurt short-term profitabili…

Do you actually know the scale at which car companies invest? Or do you just pretend to know that they "fail to invest" because that sounds fun in relation to Tesla?

The other aspect is that investing isn't the end of the story. Nearly all car companies have made investments in green energy--but which are likely to produce results and win the market?

Tesla is expected to execute better because it hasn't just set up a department to prototype EVs. Tesla is dedicated to EVs. The company is built on the technology. That results in a lack of legacy distractions, faster iteration cycles, effective vertical integration, and a wholly different culture and brand.

It's a classic startup disrupting incumbent story. It isn't a sure thing, but it's enough to make Tesla very valuable.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#253

Post by peripitea »

ralfd wrote: post #195
mdasen wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

> Tesla is a $45B company right now. ... BMW is $56B (1.2x) What's the likelihood that Tesla is the next BMW? It's low. This here. BMW makes more in profit than Tesla is earning in revenue. BMW sells 2.5 million cars a year, 25 times as many as Tesla. And both companies are valued roughly the same? How? Totally overvalued. If Tesla catches up to BMW 25x output (and this is a big If) would it then be worth a trillion…

>This here. BMW makes more in profit than Tesla is earning in revenue. BMW sells 2.5 million cars a year, 25 times as many as Tesla. And both companies are valued roughly the same? How? Totally overvalued.

Are you familiar with how companies are valued? You only seem to be factoring in present considerations. What might happen in the future is a major factor in determining these prices, especially in an industry with so much potential upheaval not too far away. (e.g. what if Tesla profits are 10x BMW's in 20 years? Then they are probably undervalued right now.) If you are confident in your assessment though, you can always put money behind it and make yourself rich.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#255

Post by brokenmasonjars »

davedx wrote: post #179
brokenmasonjars wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea I didn't follow the op's comment either. Shorting is not permanent or even a long term position. I mean..you could hold it for a longer term period I guess. In 2008-2009 there wasn't many other options to choose from. Short selling is basically selling a stock you don't own. You borrow against the stock when you think their is opportunity. Tesla was a pretty easy short honestly if done right. Personally I didn't…

Good to get a perspective from a short seller. Thanks for posting. Personally I'm the opposite -- I only go long for the long term. But that's what I decided my risk tolerance was as a mid 30-year old. So far my long position in TSLA since late 2013 has been a pretty good result.

Thanks for the reply. My apologies for the delay. I'm used to places like reddit giving me notifications about replies so I just didn't really realize there was a reply. Risk tolerance is a very personal thing. It varies with individual and as a short seller I've grown to accept it a bit more.

For any investment, one simply can not know everything. I gave TSLA up for another area which as paid well. I use to own in Google after the IPO, even during my ownership I would short at times. The same is true with any stock I'm long. If there is an opportunity that I'm comfortable with then I take it.

I think too often people talk about short selling without any real experience doing it. So often it's realities get distorted with chatter. 2008 I learned to short basically during hands on learning as there just wasn't any great opportunity when things were going crazy. There were other great opportunities, my personal favorite was the government shut down under Obama and the predictable re-opening. That was some glorious profiteering right there...

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#256

Post by oli5679 »

The trade I'm interesting is simultaneously shorting Tesla and Daimler.

Sceptics emphasise the difference between Tesla's market cap (£40 bn) vs its current sales (75,000) and profits (close to -$1bn). I can imagine a state of the world where they grow dramatically and justify this price tag, but in that case I see serious problems for Daimler.

Similarly, if Daimler flatlines and doesn't see a crash in sales of Mercedez, I'm seriously pessimistic about Tesla.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#257

Post by ansible »

princeb wrote: post #242
ansible wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One factor to consider is that BMW is heavily invested in current fossil-fuel powered vehicles. If there is a big shift overall to electric then the capital expenditures that BMW has already made aren't so valuable. Yes, they (BMW) are indeed making money now. But have they invested in the right direction? I don't know. Allegedly the market does (as reflected in the relative stock prices)... but the market is often s…

> BMW is heavily invested in current fossil-fuel powered vehicles isn't BMW behind the proposed european standard for electric vehicle charging?

The point I was trying to make though is that most of their infrastructure is currently dedicated to gasoline powered vehicles. That may, or may not turn out to have a good return on investment, and may be factored into their share price.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#258

Post by idiot_stick »

mikeash wrote: post #251
idiot_stick wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These aren't speculation, they're facts. The base Model 3 will be faster 0-60, You know for a fact that a car that doesn't exist yet is faster than one that does? That's interesting. I, on the other hand, will wait until there's a comparable Bolt and Model 3 on the market, with a similar price, to determine what's better. A 3 series BMW is also "better" than Bolt, but that's irrelevant. >"The charging infrastructur…

Yes, Tesla said that the base Model 3 will be under 6 seconds for 0-60, and I'm perfectly confident in trusting them to deliver on that. "You realize that there are far more regular chargers across the nation than superchargers, right?" You realize that the vast majority of "regular chargers" are L2 units putting out 6-10kW and are therefore completely worthless for long distance travel? And that the CCS infrastructu…

>Yes, Tesla said that the base Model 3 will be under 6 seconds for 0-60, and I'm perfectly confident in trusting them to deliver on that.

This is different from a "fact".

>Plan a drive from NYC to LA using the Supercharger network and "regular chargers" and compare how long the trips would take.

Plan a drive across Canada, where I live, and see how far you get with the Supercharger Network. I'll be stranded 300 miles from where I start.

But guess what? Charging infrastructure isn't rocket science. It can be ramped up quickly.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#259

Post by idiot_stick »

vonmoltke wrote: post #248
sabertoothed wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is not only a car company anymore. The commenter above is right on this one and it is not a subjective statement. This is a fact.

Tesla is as much a car company as GM, BMW, Honda, and Toyota. >90% of Tesla's revenue is from selling cars. They certainly have aspirations to be more, but they aren't there yet.

>Tesla is as much a car company as GM, BMW, Honda, and Toyota

It often feels like the people discussing Tesla have zero experience with some of these other companies.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#260

Post by brilliantcode »

brilliantcode wrote: post #136

Was about to buy near expiry put options for a very cheap price...I'll be staying away from TSLA and looking at macroeconomic trends instead. Timing earnings without informational edge, it's gambling.

Update: Seeing the TSLA tank yesterday, I decided I will never self doubt myself again and resume gambling.
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