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Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

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Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#241

Post by ansible »

ralfd wrote: post #195
mdasen wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

> Tesla is a $45B company right now. ... BMW is $56B (1.2x) What's the likelihood that Tesla is the next BMW? It's low. This here. BMW makes more in profit than Tesla is earning in revenue. BMW sells 2.5 million cars a year, 25 times as many as Tesla. And both companies are valued roughly the same? How? Totally overvalued. If Tesla catches up to BMW 25x output (and this is a big If) would it then be worth a trillion…

One factor to consider is that BMW is heavily invested in current fossil-fuel powered vehicles.

If there is a big shift overall to electric then the capital expenditures that BMW has already made aren't so valuable.

Yes, they (BMW) are indeed making money now. But have they invested in the right direction? I don't know. Allegedly the market does (as reflected in the relative stock prices)... but the market is often stupid. It is often smart too, but it can sometimes be hard to tell.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#242

Post by princeb »

ansible wrote: post #241
ralfd wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla is a $45B company right now. ... BMW is $56B (1.2x) What's the likelihood that Tesla is the next BMW? It's low. This here. BMW makes more in profit than Tesla is earning in revenue. BMW sells 2.5 million cars a year, 25 times as many as Tesla. And both companies are valued roughly the same? How? Totally overvalued. If Tesla catches up to BMW 25x output (and this is a big If) would it then be worth a trillion…

One factor to consider is that BMW is heavily invested in current fossil-fuel powered vehicles. If there is a big shift overall to electric then the capital expenditures that BMW has already made aren't so valuable. Yes, they (BMW) are indeed making money now. But have they invested in the right direction? I don't know. Allegedly the market does (as reflected in the relative stock prices)... but the market is often s…

> BMW is heavily invested in current fossil-fuel powered vehicles

isn't BMW behind the proposed european standard for electric vehicle charging?

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#243

Post by Dribblenaught »

austenallred wrote: post #55
paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

I put 100% of my net worth in TSLA when it was trading at $180 a couple months ago http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-to-the-guy-who-in... . I'm already up 40%, and I'm holding (though not adding to it as my net worth grows). Such an obvious, incredible company that Wall Street will undervalue until the end of time. (For the record: I don't recommend doing this. I am in a unique situation where I can own the…

I followed suit. Thanks for the awesome advice. Got my full 213K in it now.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#244

Post by soperj »

Retric wrote: post #144
kbenson wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's besides the point. We are thousands of years in the future from that point, with thousands of years of technological advancements. What would a civilization relatively recently after the loss of that knowledge do? Could they even do it? The point is that technology can be lost. Sure, we may have re-learned the technology in the intervening millennia, but we wouldn't have to re-learn it if it wasn't lost in…

You are assuming it was lost in the same time period. Instead, there was ever refined stone construction techniques through medieval Cathedral's. So, sure 4500 years ago making a giant stone hill was hard, but the 1311 Lincoln Cathedral @ 524 ft was actually significantly taller structure and far more difficult.

It's not a stone hill. It was completely smooth before the limestone casing was removed. Also I don't know how 524ft is _significantly_ taller than 481 feet.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#245

Post by soperj »

Retric wrote: post #35
soperj wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How were the pyramids built?

It really does not matter as we could build them today with a lot less effort. It would cost something like $5 billion today and would take ~2,000 people ~5 years. Which is relatively speaking a lot less expensive. Put another way, Bill G could build ~17 of them in his lifetime and not be broke.

It was estimated they took 14 years to build.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#246

Post by Vik1ng »

mikeash wrote: post #226
idiot_stick wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hope Model 3 can beat the Bolt in range. That would be a nice surprise. Why do you care whether Tesla has a good car or GM has a good car, rather than, overall, we have many good cars to choose from? > I know Musk has already mentioned that Model Y will be cheaper, but we don't know just how much cheaper. Hopefully, it will be like $25,000. We haven't even seen the M3, or heard the price. But we're already talkin…

I care because the Model 3 is almost certainly going to be a much better car overall (better performance, far superior driver assistance technology, vastly better charging infrastructure) and it would be a shame if its success were hobbled due to one relatively small factor that gets blown out of proportion. Of course I'd love to have many good cars to choose from, but there's no sign of that happening any time soon.

I don't see why someone would buy Bolt over a Model 3 because of a few miles. If there really is so important then get a larger battery, but for most people the different style and features will probably be most important than 10% more range.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#247

Post by greglindahl »

Vik1ng wrote: post #246
mikeash wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I care because the Model 3 is almost certainly going to be a much better car overall (better performance, far superior driver assistance technology, vastly better charging infrastructure) and it would be a shame if its success were hobbled due to one relatively small factor that gets blown out of proportion. Of course I'd love to have many good cars to choose from, but there's no sign of that happening any time soon.

I don't see why someone would buy Bolt over a Model 3 because of a few miles. If there really is so important then get a larger battery, but for most people the different style and features will probably be most important than 10% more range.

For the Model 3, the important thing is that the battery is big enough to get you from supercharger to supercharger for long trips.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#248

Post by vonmoltke »

sabertoothed wrote: post #240
idiot_stick wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Parent post is about why using numbers is not necessarily correct because those numbers are based on assumptions that are not valid in Tesla's case. And my post is about how these things are just said, without any evidence. I thought this is a forum of critical thinkers? And yet we have people saying that "well, it's not really a car company" or "but Elon!" trumps actual data . > so expecting Tesla to follow the tr…

Tesla is not only a car company anymore. The commenter above is right on this one and it is not a subjective statement. This is a fact.

Tesla is as much a car company as GM, BMW, Honda, and Toyota. >90% of Tesla's revenue is from selling cars. They certainly have aspirations to be more, but they aren't there yet.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#249

Post by intrasight »

kodfodrasz wrote: post #198
intrasight wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla should buy Uber and get that house in order. Also makes sense since the future is "mobility services" and neither alone can deliver on that promise.

Do you actuallly beleive what you are writing? From outside the SV bubble the future is cars. Electric, self driving, rentable and owned as well. Where I live there is reasonable public transport infrastructure. Self driving ridesharing mobility service from my point of view. I do not find it clean enough, I do not like the people I often have to share my ride. I prefer an own car. This won't change by "self driving…

I do believe that the future is mobility services. I don't think it's going to happen soon but I do believe it is going to happen. I believe that it will, within my lifetime, become illegal to drive your own vehicle on public roads.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#250

Post by idiot_stick »

mikeash wrote: post #238
idiot_stick wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I care because the Model 3 is almost certainly going to be a much better car overall I'll bet that the cars from Tesla and GM within similar price range will have similar features and performance. Why would you think that Tesla, operating at a much smaller scale, will necessarily be able to do everything cheaper and better? That seems counterintuitive; GM has scale and a dialed in supply chain.

I stated three specific areas where the Model 3 will be better. These aren't speculation, they're facts. The base Model 3 will be faster 0-60, and it's confirmed that they'll have high-performance options. The Bolt's driver assistance technology is anemic, while we know that the Model 3's will be at least as good as what Tesla is shipping today on the S and X. The charging infrastructure for long distance travel in t…

>These aren't speculation, they're facts. The base Model 3 will be faster 0-60,

You know for a fact that a car that doesn't exist yet is faster than one that does? That's interesting.

I, on the other hand, will wait until there's a comparable Bolt and Model 3 on the market, with a similar price, to determine what's better. A 3 series BMW is also "better" than Bolt, but that's irrelevant.

>"The charging infrastructure for long distance travel in the Bolt is awful"

You realize that there are far more regular chargers across the nation than superchargers, right?

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