Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#161

Post by aerovistae » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 6:29 AM UTC

crabasa wrote: post #104

mdasen wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

> Toyota's profits are real. GM's profits are real. BMW's profits are real. Tesla's profits might be great in the future - and that risk means the potential profits are worth less than actual profits. You have this exactly backwards. For instance, you could have made the exact same argument about Walmart versus Amazon. What you're missing is that the investments that Tesla is making, which hurt short-term profitabili…

Exactly so.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#162

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 6:30 AM UTC

erikpukinskis wrote: post #152

dingo_bat wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He is the least terrible billionaire industrialist IMHO. I'd say Bill gates still retains that title.

Only if you ignore his time at Microsoft. Yes, he has done great things since he left. But he set the computer industry back decades with his predatory business tactics. A big part of the reason why we have so many walled gardens now is because he started the trend. And we're lucky we have multiple walled gardens. If he had succeeded a little longer we'd still only have one big one.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#163

Post by tbabb » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 6:48 AM UTC

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #156

tbabb wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would propose viewing Tesla as an energy storage company Yeah, I'd say it would not be unfair to compare future Tesla to a company like GE ($270B mkt cap). Optimistic, but not irrational.

I beg to differ - GE is not an energy company, it's a multinational conglomorate heavily involved also in a dozen other fields like oil&gas, aviation, healthcare, home appliances, finance, research and transportation. GE Healthcare alone employs >40 000 people and does >4x the revenue of Tesla today. Maybe if Tesla merged with SpaceX and also with five-six other large companies you'd be about right.

> GE is not an energy company

Fair enough (though I'd think the oil & gas you mention would count), but look at any energy company today and you'll see similar numbers. Another poster in this thread compares to Exxon; similarly favorable.

You may not think Tesla will make it there, and you might turn out to be right. But those that do are optimistic; not stupid.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#164

Post by j7ake » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 6:50 AM UTC

crabasa wrote: post #104

mdasen wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

> Toyota's profits are real. GM's profits are real. BMW's profits are real. Tesla's profits might be great in the future - and that risk means the potential profits are worth less than actual profits. You have this exactly backwards. For instance, you could have made the exact same argument about Walmart versus Amazon. What you're missing is that the investments that Tesla is making, which hurt short-term profitabili…

You're still making a bet that Tesla will become a top 3 car company in the world. At the moment people there are people who think the price to risk is worth it. Some do not think it's worth it.

I would say there are better ways to make money than a 50 percent chance to make 20 percent more.

Also these predictions are 10+ years in the future. How often have people actually predicted that far from the future? Almost none. The only ones I can think of are bets on fragility: more downsides than upsides as time progresses.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#165

Post by brokenmasonjars » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 6:51 AM UTC

Someone1234 wrote: post #24

paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

> People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts I don't follow. Tesla is down 1.4%. People who shorted Tesla made money today. Plus a lot of people made money shorting Amazon over Amazon's life. Shorting a stock has less to do with a company's business plan/success and more to do with predicting the market itself and how they'll respond to various quarterly results (and the likelihood of such results).…

Yea I didn't follow the op's comment either. Shorting is not permanent or even a long term position. I mean..you could hold it for a longer term period I guess. In 2008-2009 there wasn't many other options to choose from. Short selling is basically selling a stock you don't own. You borrow against the stock when you think their is opportunity. Tesla was a pretty easy short honestly if done right. Personally I didn't short it, however I have enjoyed shorting Netflix, Google, Facebook and Amazon over the years. It sounds crazy to short Google right? But there were times when it was obvious there would be declines. Not permanent but short term. I personally never held someone all the way down, I'm in for a quick profit and out before the bounce. Sometimes I'll buy the stock after I short it so I can gain from the bounce as well.

All that said I feel Tesla is a good company but if I was focused on them I'd just as well look for shorting opportunities. If it's not evident, I'm a fan of short selling.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#166

Post by dangrossman » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 6:58 AM UTC

sean_appleby wrote: post #150

eddieplan9 wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like Samsung, which has a fab all the way up to consumer facing phone business? Excessive vertical integration is over-valued, unless you holds a monopoly position in at least one of the component of the vertical.

Is it unrealistic that the gigafactory will create a near-monopoly on batteries for self-driving cars? They're going to own about half of the world's battery production capacity at ~30% reduction in cost per kwh over current production. Plus they're planning three more factories. Selling core tech to other car companies seems like a lucrative long term move.

> Is it unrealistic that the gigafactory will create a near-monopoly on batteries for self-driving cars?

How would it do that? And why are self-driving cars a separate category when it comes to battery suppliers?

> They're going to own about half of the world's battery production capacity

There should be about 200 GWh of worldwide production capacity by the time GF1 is fully ramped up. That means they'll have about 17% of it, not half. BYD alone will match that. So will Foxconn and Boston Power. Then there's LG Chem, Samsung SDI, SK Innovation, etc.

These names have committed over $20 billion to additional battery factories over the next 2-3 years, many of which have already broken ground. They're also largely ahead of Tesla's position in the battery business already, are better capitalized, and have no intention of dropping out of the market rather than expanding to meet the expected future demand.

It's easy to get roped in by Tesla's press releases and marketing materials, where they do things like compare the GF's expected production rate at the end of 2018 to worldwide production numbers from 2013. The rest of the market isn't standing still.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#167

Post by austenallred » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 7:01 AM UTC

deboflo wrote: post #160

austenallred wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By making a lot more now than I used to

Seems crazy, but is actually a smart move. I own 3,000 Tesla shares. Purchased most shares at $30 after driving my model s from the factory. I have seen my net worth get cut in half when tsla went from $280 to $140, but never sold any. LinkedIn, a crappy website, was recently purchased by Microsoft for $30 billion. That's about how much Tesla's market capitalization was 2 months ago. Take a look at the all of the ind…

100% agreed

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#168

Post by mncharity » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 7:01 AM UTC

erikpukinskis wrote: post #152

dingo_bat wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He is the least terrible billionaire industrialist IMHO. I'd say Bill gates still retains that title.

Only if you ignore his time at Microsoft. Yes, he has done great things since he left. But he set the computer industry back decades with his predatory business tactics. A big part of the reason why we have so many walled gardens now is because he started the trend. And we're lucky we have multiple walled gardens. If he had succeeded a little longer we'd still only have one big one.

Isn't Gates still heavily invested and active in Intellectual Ventures? And the Gates Foundation involved as well? My impression is Gates and Myhrvold are still a team, though like Microsoft itself, now focus their efforts on creating and monetizing intellectual property.

So one became a humanitarian statesman? And the other became king of the patent trolls, the most feared man in the Valley? Or perhaps soon, humanitarian statesman and inquisitive chef? Image management is mazing.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#169

Post by j7ake » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 7:03 AM UTC

mdasen wrote: post #97

paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

This is a sound counter argument to the current mania of Tesla. You made the bet easy to understand: will Tesla be as big as Toyota in about 10 years? You get 20 percent of your money if you're right, otherwise you risk losing 50 percent of more.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#170

Post by Animats » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 7:05 AM UTC

1024core wrote: post #89

paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

> Looking at the future, Tesla said it expects to deliver 47,000 to 50,000 Model S and Model X vehicles combined in the first half of 2017, representing vehicle delivery growth of 61% to 71% compared with the same period last year. They fell short of their goal of 80,000 vehicles in 2016. You're talking about almost doubling their production in 2017... and then doubling it again in 2018! Ain't gonna happen.

Tesla should be able to make about 400,000 vehicles a year with the Fremont plant. GM/Toyota did in that building, and with a lower headcount than Tesla. The question is how long it will take Tesla to get their new assembly line debugged. Tesla isn't breaking new ground here, despite the PR hype. Musk usually overpromises and delivers late.

Tesla will need about two assembly lines each running two shifts to reach their production goal. Once they get the first line running, balanced, and up to speed, they should be able to build about one car per minute, or 120,000 cars a year, with one shift. They're running about 2000 cars a week now, which is a bit slow, but not unreasonable for a medium volume luxury car.