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California Farmers Backed Trump, but Now Fear Losing Field Workers

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Re: California Farmers Backed Trump, but Now Fear Losing Field Workers

#51
post #43
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's no easy solutions Capitalism has an easy solution. Labour shortage = raise wages.

> Capitalism has an easy solution. Labour shortage = raise wages. Which will move the price of the agricultural products to uncompetitive levels, and the agricultural production will move to Mexico. So to the extent that it turns out the determinative input in the cost of fruits and vegetables is labor, the wages can flow to Mexican workers in Mexico or Mexican workers in the United States, and similarly profits can…

> Which will move the price of the agricultural products to uncompetitive levels, and the agricultural production will move to Mexico.

And what is wrong with this?

Corporations always magically get very snippy when capitalism works against them.

In addition, California needs to shut down a lot of farming in the Central Valley due to the water shortage. We should not be growing crops in that area when we have to spend so much to actually irrigate it.

Re: California Farmers Backed Trump, but Now Fear Losing Field Workers

#52

The "$20 head of lettuce" argument falls apart when you examine it critically. Here is how I deduced that a $20/hour rate for farm labor, vs the assumed $8/hour rate paid now, would add no more than 5 cents per head of lettuce to the cost, and (assuming various middle-man markups in between farmer and supermarket) a retail difference of perhaps 25 cents. 1. Go to youtube, search for videos of modern lettuce farm oper…

http://coststudyfiles.ucdavis.edu/uploads/cs_public/92/af/92... : everything you want to know about lettuce. (A tad dated: 2009.)

Or rather the economics of it simply: farmer sells 24 count carton to wholesaler at average $12. It can vary from $9-15/carton. How it gets marked up after the farmer sells it doesn't matter.

There are two kinds of wages: harvest/manual labour wages and machine wages. The former is around $12 and the latter around $15(includes payroll taxes).

How does the math work out now? You can 16 pages from ucdavis to crunch it.

Re: California Farmers Backed Trump, but Now Fear Losing Field Workers

#53
post #43
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's no easy solutions Capitalism has an easy solution. Labour shortage = raise wages.

> Capitalism has an easy solution. Labour shortage = raise wages. Which will move the price of the agricultural products to uncompetitive levels, and the agricultural production will move to Mexico. So to the extent that it turns out the determinative input in the cost of fruits and vegetables is labor, the wages can flow to Mexican workers in Mexico or Mexican workers in the United States, and similarly profits can…

Hence the protectionist policies that Trump also plans on enacting.

Re: California Farmers Backed Trump, but Now Fear Losing Field Workers

#54

The "$20 head of lettuce" argument falls apart when you examine it critically. Here is how I deduced that a $20/hour rate for farm labor, vs the assumed $8/hour rate paid now, would add no more than 5 cents per head of lettuce to the cost, and (assuming various middle-man markups in between farmer and supermarket) a retail difference of perhaps 25 cents. 1. Go to youtube, search for videos of modern lettuce farm oper…

http://coststudyfiles.ucdavis.edu/uploads/cs_public/92/af/92... : everything you want to know about lettuce. (A tad dated: 2009.) Or rather the economics of it simply: farmer sells 24 count carton to wholesaler at average $12. It can vary from $9-15/carton. How it gets marked up after the farmer sells it doesn't matter. There are two kinds of wages: harvest/manual labour wages and machine wages. The former is around…

For some reason, I can't load that file at this exact moment...

I admit to "eyeballing" the video in estimating the time spent; however, I think it is a good exercise to do, as you realize (for any fruit/veg harvest) how much is done and how quickly.

The argument about "we won't be able to afford fruits/veggies" seems quite "off".

Re: California Farmers Backed Trump, but Now Fear Losing Field Workers

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they work for less than minimum wage, nor do they hire them explicitly as illegal workers (instead, they turn a blind eye when their documentation doesn't line up). How many Americans dream of doing farm work? We have some of the best farmland in the world, but our workforce has mainly moved up the tech chain to more skilled and hence more valuable labor. It is a contradiction.

Please, these people are not stupid. They know exactly what they're doing when they hire undocumented workers.

I think I implied that. They still need cover, however.

Re: California Farmers Backed Trump, but Now Fear Losing Field Workers

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://coststudyfiles.ucdavis.edu/uploads/cs_public/92/af/92... : everything you want to know about lettuce. (A tad dated: 2009.) Or rather the economics of it simply: farmer sells 24 count carton to wholesaler at average $12. It can vary from $9-15/carton. How it gets marked up after the farmer sells it doesn't matter. There are two kinds of wages: harvest/manual labour wages and machine wages. The former is around…

For some reason, I can't load that file at this exact moment... I admit to "eyeballing" the video in estimating the time spent; however, I think it is a good exercise to do, as you realize (for any fruit/veg harvest) how much is done and how quickly. The argument about "we won't be able to afford fruits/veggies" seems quite "off".

It's not about not being able to afford but rather how much people are willing to pay. No one does. Ask any chef-restauranteur. For whatever reason, in the USA..we are very resistant to opening our wallets for food needs. Reluctance.. I can't explain why. It's a mystery.

That aside..take this example: http://www.freightfarms.com/blog/data-from-our-growers-opera... ..semi automated hydroponics system. It's easier to crunch numbers here. I would seriously dispute the 'profit' of $39k/container. There is also the cost of the land and insurance(its same for 1-20 acres. About $800/annum. How would they treat a container for ag insurance? Rent for space where it's parked etc. I don't know) and certifications(GAP audits etc). Reliability of market etc. I would put it at about a third of it. Because these guys will probably be competing with the Salinas and half moon bay suppliers. Also note that they are not certified organic and perishables have to move quickly to a very certain market.

And you do have to plonk $85/container.(I would round it off to $100k).

I am just trying to show you how even a little bit of deviation towards farm automation makes things better. Of course, it's also highly risky as it's a closed system. The numbers won't apply to other produce. Grains and certain commodity crops will have to be grown in soil only. So automation has to be robotic solutions and slowly complementing human labour. And ultimately full intelligent automation. That's our only option.

We have reached a certain carrying capacity I feel and scaling food production using human labour to feed the billions of people(and animals that go to feed the billions of people) is soon going to become un feasible. Not just in terms of actual labour logistics and costs but also in terms of environmental costs..not to mention resources like fossil fuel, water etc..plus the pollution that is inherent to food production. It's all going to be about carbon footprint.

That's why local food production is important. For every load of lettuce harvested, there is a cost too to transport, refrigerate and then transport it back again to the shelves of the local greengrocer. Makes no sense. Example: a head of lettuce grown in salinas..not too far away from Palo Alto goes through the entire supply chain distribution trip before it ends up at a Whole Foods in Palo Alto. There is so many inefficiency leaks in terms of energy, costs and time. Probably decreased nutritive value also due to the age of said head of lettuce.

This hand wringing over labour issues..illegal or not is moot...is useless as 'fixing' this problem is not really fixing the real problem.

The solution would have to be re how tech is going to help us automate our farms. Who knows..maybe farms could even become profitable if that happens. And food distribution has to be local.

I don't know if I have digressed from your original point..that food won't be expensive if we raise wages. Perhaps I have..but I hope i have shown some other facets of the problem and how raising wages is really not a solution.

Re: California Farmers Backed Trump, but Now Fear Losing Field Workers

#57
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they work for less than minimum wage, nor do they hire them explicitly as illegal workers (instead, they turn a blind eye when their documentation doesn't line up). How many Americans dream of doing farm work? We have some of the best farmland in the world, but our workforce has mainly moved up the tech chain to more skilled and hence more valuable labor. It is a contradiction.

Disclaimer: Hugely unscientific personal anecdote incoming. I worked on a farm in CA as a seasonal worker and I, along with a number of my fellow laborers, were paid below CA minimum wage, and I was actually authorized to work in the US. I don't know how widespread this is but I got the impression it wasn't exactly rare. From comparing experiences with one of my closest friends who is the son of Mexican migrant farm…

Food Inc. discusses the practice of bussing people into the US from central / south America on legal visas. After the visas expire, the sponsors make deals with the INS to slow feed migrants back to them for deportation. Even the people who are against high immigration / illegal immigration aren't going to go after the work visas though. Nobody is going to vote to make food more expensive by forcing what is essentially subsidized labor out of the market. Most of the anti immigration push in the US is about beating the second stage of processes like these - the people that stay and attempt to build political economy for themselves.

When I propose ending the work visa program to 'conservatives', I am laughed at. Maybe there's a better solution, but it's at least a more direct solution to their stated woes than I've heard. Not to put liberals on a pedestal either though - the left in this country basically ignores AG labor entirely.

Re: California Farmers Backed Trump, but Now Fear Losing Field Workers

#58
post #26
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But my question is still who would pay for those wage raises? The people who buy the products? Yes, exactly. > How do you think they'd react if fruit/vegetables were twice the price overnight? If you weren't artificially suppressing wages through illegal immigration, the working class would have more money, the labour market would be at a better equilibrium and everyone would have money to buy food even at the slig…

Slightly higher prices? Care to add some support to that, even if just your imagination and assumptions? My guess is more like "$20 lettuce," at the very least.

[deleted]

Re: California Farmers Backed Trump, but Now Fear Losing Field Workers

#59
post #51
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Capitalism has an easy solution. Labour shortage = raise wages. Which will move the price of the agricultural products to uncompetitive levels, and the agricultural production will move to Mexico. So to the extent that it turns out the determinative input in the cost of fruits and vegetables is labor, the wages can flow to Mexican workers in Mexico or Mexican workers in the United States, and similarly profits can…

> Which will move the price of the agricultural products to uncompetitive levels, and the agricultural production will move to Mexico. And what is wrong with this? Corporations always magically get very snippy when capitalism works against them. In addition, California needs to shut down a lot of farming in the Central Valley due to the water shortage. We should not be growing crops in that area when we have to spend…

A lot of that farming in California provides the vast majority of national or even global supplies of various fruits and vegetables. California's Central Valley has a long growing season and very fertile soil, the combination of which make it about as ideal for growing crops as one can get (with the sole exception of water). Agriculture's here to stay; it's just a question of how much water it'll get.

Water usage can be reduced through smarter irrigation methods, and we have a ridiculously-long coastline that could be put to good use by building some desalinization plants (solving not only our own water crisis, but also the relative aridity of Nevada and Arizona). Even importing water from elsewhere is far more reasonable than shutting down California's agriculture.

That said, beef does take up a disproportionate amount of water statewide, and really ought to be moved out-of-state (and I say this as someone whose extended family has a vested interest in Californian cattle ranching). Alfalfa might benefit from California's soil and sunshine, but the cows themselves don't exactly need to be here.

Re: California Farmers Backed Trump, but Now Fear Losing Field Workers

#60

In California..in small farms 1-100 acres : Casual labour from in front of Home Depot parking lot won't work for less than $20-22/hour. Interns(they have to be taught. So for every 3-4 hours they work, a skilled farm labourer can do it in one hour..because the time you take to train them is the time when you are not working.) are paid from $10-12/hour. Knowledgeable farm workers(full time..reliable work..in the sligh…

I ain't exactly an expert in agricultural sector human resources, but I'm pretty sure the guys standing around Home Depot are typically geared around construction rather than farming.
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