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Is Europe Disintegrating?

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Re: Is Europe Disintegrating?

#151

Post by alphonsegaston »

hollerith wrote: post #147
alphonsegaston wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US was founded on similar principles with regard to its states and had to revise its entire political system just thirteen years into its existence. When faced with various existential threats throughout its history, the US has always renegotiated these terms towards more centralized federal power. Europe faces a similar challenge now, and will either peacefully arrive at more centralized political authority, or…

Do you believe that Britain and France would submit to being swallowed up without using their nukes against whoever is trying to swallow them?

Why do you presume that this has to be done militarily? The Russians have been funneling money and influence into the UK for decades. They're loaning money to Le Pen in France. There's no need to risk confrontation if you can get your politcal allies to cede everything to you that stands in your way.

Re: Is Europe Disintegrating?

#152

Post by tshadley »

muninn_ wrote: post #111
tshadley wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Then why is Europe experiencing such a huge problem now and not then? It seems less likely the problem is immigration and more likely at last part of the problem is fear of immigrants. Studies such as the following show that anti-immigrant sentiment is more extreme among residents of rural places than among residents of urban places, even though immigrants are more likely to reside in urban communities. http://cita…

Why are people scared of immigration this time around and not previously? Did previous immigrants assimilate? Were they similar, culturally?

It's a worthwhile question and one worth comparing to the US today. Why is a sizable percentage of the US today afraid of immigrants despite no significant increase in immigration at all (unlike Europe)? In this case, assimilation is irrelevant yet this fear of immigration has been enough to put Trump in office.

It's speculation, but I think rural populations worldwide are experiencing poor economic conditions while the urban areas have enjoyed growth and prosperity. The primary reason for this is most likely that young and educated people move to the cities draining rural areas of talent. Further, rural industries in first world countries are no longer competitive enough to sustain rural economies. There's more than can be said here I'm sure.

Re: Is Europe Disintegrating?

#153

Post by tshadley »

niftich wrote: post #114
tshadley wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can't have short-term, mass migration without having something happen or change. I am generally confused by the claim of "mass migration". As this chart shows, EU migration of 2013 is below the rate of 2002 and is only now recovering from the 2008 economic crisis. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/... If there is some problem that mass migration causes, why didn't it happen back in 200…

Same source, I used the graph generator to graph by country and year. The bottom 'light green' bar in each country's section is 2015, each successive bar above is one year prior. http://imgur.com/a/od7Hi You can see, in 2015, very notable increases in (in)migration rate for Austria, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Malta, Slovakia, and Estonia. You can also see Italy's huge 2013 spike (in magenta).

I'm looking at the top graph (EU 28 countries) and not seeing anything alarming relative to prior years. I'm not sure why Europe should be disintegrating now and not a decade ago if the claim is solely that Europe's problems are due to migration.

Re: Is Europe Disintegrating?

#154

Post by alphonsegaston »

dogma1138 wrote: post #150
alphonsegaston wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US was founded on similar principles with regard to its states and had to revise its entire political system just thirteen years into its existence. When faced with various existential threats throughout its history, the US has always renegotiated these terms towards more centralized federal power. Europe faces a similar challenge now, and will either peacefully arrive at more centralized political authority, or…

You have 2 nuclear powers in Europe, and a few other countries that host nukes under the NATO nuclear arms sharing treaty which gives them discretionary access to said arsenal. You have NATO and even without a centralized government the European Economic Area and the European Free Trade Association which together form one of the largest economies in the world. Europe would do just fine if it decides to scale back on…

Well, I hope for all our sakes that a historically expansionist, authoritarian regime exercises as much restraint as you ascribe to them. I'm personally more skeptical. In an era where the US seems to be rapidly cozying up to Russia, denigrating NATO, and withdrawing public support for former allies, things are impossible until they are not.

Re: Is Europe Disintegrating?

#155

Post by rdtsc »

alphonsegaston wrote: post #73

Europe is learning the same thing that the United States did in its early days: it's impossible for a union of disparate states to survive without strong, overarching federal authority. It's as unpalatable to member states now as it was to the original colonies, but the alternative is to be subsumed by some outside, more centrally organized power. The Russians understand this, which is why they work to encourage nati…

> The Russians understand this, which is why they work to encourage nationalism among EU members.

The Americans would do that as well. Even those are friendly allies (compared to Russia or China say). It is still beneficial to play them against each other. Say retaliate against France by loosening tariffs for German made goods.

Re: Is Europe Disintegrating?

#156

Post by [deleted] »

akjainaj wrote: post #130
vivekd wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My own country, Canada, seems to be doing a good job, and I'm not sure but I think we have even higher immigration rates than Europe or the United States and we're still a fairly liberal, progressive and integrated society. I think our secret is selective immigration, we are much more selective than Europe in regards to who we let into the country and we don't have the illegal immigration issue on the scale that Amer…

Of course if you cherry pick your immigrants, you can claim immigrants are not problematic. If all your immigrants turned into Muslim refugees overnight, what would happen? I'm sure you guess it.

[deleted]

Re: Is Europe Disintegrating?

#157

Post by muninn_ »

tshadley wrote: post #152
muninn_ wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are people scared of immigration this time around and not previously? Did previous immigrants assimilate? Were they similar, culturally?

It's a worthwhile question and one worth comparing to the US today. Why is a sizable percentage of the US today afraid of immigrants despite no significant increase in immigration at all (unlike Europe)? In this case, assimilation is irrelevant yet this fear of immigration has been enough to put Trump in office. It's speculation, but I think rural populations worldwide are experiencing poor economic conditions while…

I feel like it's more about the economy than immigrants. Ask somebody in Parkersburg, WV if they are angry at the Lebanese family that built a restaurant, or if they are angry about that economy in general

Re: Is Europe Disintegrating?

#158

Post by artursapek »

stale2002 wrote: post #125
gambiting wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ugh. No, it's like a group of people deciding to do something together. Sometimes you don't like what the group is doing,but it's usually better to be in it than outside of it. I personally would love for EU to unite even further,just call it United States of Europe and stop saying that it's German people telling Polish people what to do or vice versa - it doesn't matter, or at least I wish it didn't. And I'm sure yo…

"it doesn't matter, or at least I wish it didn't." It doesn't matter to you, but I am sure it matters a whole lot to the people of Poland (but fuck them, I guess?). Apparently they've changed their mind about this deal, and just want to be left alone. The EU isn't a suicide pact. People can and will change their mind, and will change the deal along with it. "You just can't send people back to active war zones, and th…

> They love the refugees!

I think you're probably being sarcastic, but after the latest semi truck incident at the holiday market there were reportedly protests outside of Merkel's office. The right wing is gaining traction. I'd be surprised if she is still in power in 3 years.

Re: Is Europe Disintegrating?

#159

Post by mattm »

dogma1138 wrote: post #133
muninn_ wrote: post #7

You can't have short-term, mass migration without having something happen or change. We will see a huge change in European political landscape within the next few years. People have to slowly assimilate into a culture in order to allow for a gradual, peaceful change in that culture. Shocking these types of systems with any sort of migration is a recipient for instability. Please keep in mind that this isn't any sort…

The problem is that you assume they will assimilate, based on the current 2nd and 3rd generation MENA immigrants in Europe that might not be the case. Europe isn't a good place for assimilation, you can be a 3rd generation "immigrant" living in France but you will not be French regardless of how PC they might appear to be. European nationality is very much based on blood ties to the land, ethnic nationality was the d…

> the moment you arrive regardless of who you are or where you come from (to some degree) you are an American

Unless you were Irish, Italian, Jewish, African, Middle Eastern, Muslim, Japanese, Mexican...

Don't pretend that the US is somehow morally superior in the way they have treated immigrants in the past and tidy.

Re: Is Europe Disintegrating?

#160

Post by Oletros »

stale2002 wrote: post #38
api wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Question: what is the primary grievance against the EU?

Open borders. Just keep the free trade stuff, but allow countries to control their own borders and things would be good.

Keeping just the free trade stuff is disintegrating the EU.
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