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First China-U.K. Freight Train Departs as Xi Seeks to Lift Trade

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Re: First China-U.K. Freight Train Departs as Xi Seeks to Lift Trade

#31

Post by dx034 »

LargoLasskhyfv wrote: post #29
martinald wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. I really can't see this being a success for anything more than PR. If you need it ASAP, you're going to use airfreight. If you don't you're going to have it by sea. I don't see much of a need for something in between those two timeframes. Anyone specialised in logistics care to comment if there is an actual market here?

I'm not into logistics, but following this out of curiosity. In Germany this started in 2008, and didn't make sense to me either. Got aware of it because the local press covered it. (Sorry for the german links) http://www.mopo.de/peking-hamburg-container-express-der-mons... , http://www.mopo.de/-trans-eurasia-express-hier-kommt-der-xxl... Then over the years, it was busisness as usual, slowly expanding: http://www.wi…

That would mean that airfreight is only 4 times as expensive as shipping? I'd expect it to be at least a magnitude more expensive, if not more.

I guess half as much as airfreight means that it's still considerably more expensive than shipping. But for 14 days vs 30-45 days it might well be worth it.

Re: First China-U.K. Freight Train Departs as Xi Seeks to Lift Trade

#32

Post by dx034 »

CaliforniaKarl wrote: post #28
MengerSponge wrote: post #2

Does anyone know how the train compares to ships wrt CO2/kg shipped? I'm sure the train comes out on top, but by how much? Also, how frequently could one of those trains run?

How frequently? If this was a dedicated, two-track main line, then standing trackside I'd expect to see one train coming in each direction every 20 minutes. Of course, that depends on having massive infrastructure at each end to service those trains. To see an example of that in action in the US, head to LA, and take Amtrack or Metrolink to Fullerton station, paying attention to BNSF's facilities in LA County. Then,…

You could see a train every 3-5 minutes if it was a dedicated track. Trains in Europe are much shorter than the ones in the US (and don't stack containers), but with the right signalling you can run trains at high frequencies if they're all at similar speeds.

In this case it's not a track at all, more like a schedule that uses different kinds of tracks and is actually run by different companies along the way. The track is also not owned by one company (like in the US), but by a different operator in each country. According to an article, the train set is changed twice for the trains coordinated from Germany.

Eurotunnel is likely not the choke point here (they could just load it on a ferry and only lose 1-2 hours), it's the change of rolling stock along the way, and other traffic it has to share the track with.

Re: First China-U.K. Freight Train Departs as Xi Seeks to Lift Trade

#33

Post by dx034 »

djsumdog wrote: post #10
pcurve wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like its cheaper than boat... http://richardtorian.blogspot.com/2012/01/cost-per-ton-mile-...

This would make sense. I remember reading about a company adding kites/sails to some shipping vessels to help reduce fuel costs. Even when ships match the sea current, you still need a lot of fuel to keep that inertia in the ocean. With trains you're talking about the rolling friction of metal on metal. Even if it didn't out preform ships, it outperforms trucks. That would feed the market for faster shipping of small…

Nothing outperforms shipping when it comes to cost. It's actually very easy to move an extremely heavy ship. Fuel costs are not even the biggest problem (which is why sailing is still not used widely). Ships become so big because you need fewer employees, which are still a considerable factor.

Re: First China-U.K. Freight Train Departs as Xi Seeks to Lift Trade

#35

Post by CaliforniaKarl »

dx034 wrote: post #32
CaliforniaKarl wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How frequently? If this was a dedicated, two-track main line, then standing trackside I'd expect to see one train coming in each direction every 20 minutes. Of course, that depends on having massive infrastructure at each end to service those trains. To see an example of that in action in the US, head to LA, and take Amtrack or Metrolink to Fullerton station, paying attention to BNSF's facilities in LA County. Then,…

You could see a train every 3-5 minutes if it was a dedicated track. Trains in Europe are much shorter than the ones in the US (and don't stack containers), but with the right signalling you can run trains at high frequencies if they're all at similar speeds. In this case it's not a track at all, more like a schedule that uses different kinds of tracks and is actually run by different companies along the way. The tra…

I expect this is where all of the infrastructure investment is going. Assuming these trains run in both directions, then to keep speeds steady you'll need either double track, or you'll need appropriately-sized passing sidings. And then, as soon as you have the first slowdown, all that goes to pot.

Re: First China-U.K. Freight Train Departs as Xi Seeks to Lift Trade

#36

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

dx034 wrote: post #31
LargoLasskhyfv wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not into logistics, but following this out of curiosity. In Germany this started in 2008, and didn't make sense to me either. Got aware of it because the local press covered it. (Sorry for the german links) http://www.mopo.de/peking-hamburg-container-express-der-mons... , http://www.mopo.de/-trans-eurasia-express-hier-kommt-der-xxl... Then over the years, it was busisness as usual, slowly expanding: http://www.wi…

That would mean that airfreight is only 4 times as expensive as shipping? I'd expect it to be at least a magnitude more expensive, if not more. I guess half as much as airfreight means that it's still considerably more expensive than shipping. But for 14 days vs 30-45 days it might well be worth it.

That depends on the shipped goods, i think? One calculation was that of a 15 inch notebook at 2kg weight, they wrote: 28 days per ship, at 2,50 € and 184 kg co². By air 3 to 4 days at 23 € and 4950 kg co² emission. By train 17 to 18 days at 5,50 € and 270 kg co². But that is for a laptop, packaged in a specific volume with that weight. They also ship tires, automobile parts, shoes, clothing, textiles, whatnot.... in both directions btw. BMW ships parts from .de to .cn

Re: First China-U.K. Freight Train Departs as Xi Seeks to Lift Trade

#37

Post by claudius »

jdietrich wrote: post #17
MengerSponge wrote: post #2

Does anyone know how the train compares to ships wrt CO2/kg shipped? I'm sure the train comes out on top, but by how much? Also, how frequently could one of those trains run?

According to figures in an OECD report, rail freight has significantly higher CO2 emissions per tonne-km - 41-102g vs 30-40g. http://www.oecd.org/trade/envtrade/2386636.pdf (p. 29)

Note that this is for diesel trains. While likely most of the length of the track won’t be electrified soon, essentially all tracks in western Europe (France, Germany, possibly Poland) are already electrified. This means that using nuclear or renewable energy generation, the trains can run emission-free there, in particular avoiding the strongly localised particle emissions by ships in and around harbours.

Re: First China-U.K. Freight Train Departs as Xi Seeks to Lift Trade

#38

Post by dx034 »

CaliforniaKarl wrote: post #35
dx034 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could see a train every 3-5 minutes if it was a dedicated track. Trains in Europe are much shorter than the ones in the US (and don't stack containers), but with the right signalling you can run trains at high frequencies if they're all at similar speeds. In this case it's not a track at all, more like a schedule that uses different kinds of tracks and is actually run by different companies along the way. The tra…

I expect this is where all of the infrastructure investment is going. Assuming these trains run in both directions, then to keep speeds steady you'll need either double track, or you'll need appropriately-sized passing sidings. And then, as soon as you have the first slowdown, all that goes to pot.

The problem will be to get everyone to agree on a plan. The EU and China could probably do so (here's where having the EU is actually an advantage), but getting Belarus, Russia and Mongolia to agree to the same plan without at least one state trying to blackmail favourable terms out of it will be very hard to achieve.

A proper, dedicated track could probably bring huge economic benefits for everyone involved, but I don't see that coming. As long as volume is low, none of the states the freight goes through has leverage (could still be shifted back to air/sea) which somehow guarantees that it works.

Re: First China-U.K. Freight Train Departs as Xi Seeks to Lift Trade

#39

Post by dx034 »

LargoLasskhyfv wrote: post #36
dx034 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would mean that airfreight is only 4 times as expensive as shipping? I'd expect it to be at least a magnitude more expensive, if not more. I guess half as much as airfreight means that it's still considerably more expensive than shipping. But for 14 days vs 30-45 days it might well be worth it.

That depends on the shipped goods, i think? One calculation was that of a 15 inch notebook at 2kg weight, they wrote: 28 days per ship, at 2,50 € and 184 kg co². By air 3 to 4 days at 23 € and 4950 kg co² emission. By train 17 to 18 days at 5,50 € and 270 kg co². But that is for a laptop, packaged in a specific volume with that weight. They also ship tires, automobile parts, shoes, clothing, textiles, whatnot.... in…

Yep, air freight is generally by weight, shipping by volume. Electronics are already sent via air, saving $3 shipping on a $1500 item doesn't make much sense. Taking the UK as an example, 70% of non-EU exports by value go via Heathrow. Would expect the value to be similar for China. By volume it's probably low single digits for airfreight, by value likely >50%.

Low value items and very heavy items are currently not viable via airfreight, that's probably where trains can be profitable. If you produce clothes your only options are to either do so in Europe (there's a lot of production in Turkey) and have it close by, or produce in Asia and wait 40 days for every order. Cutting that time for a premium could make a lot of economic sense.

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