This is, I believe, the correct analysis.
I am personally/professionally qualified to keep my data extremely safe and distributed. It's one of the things I do at work, at scale. But it's not easy. It is, after all, work. I don't have to worry about that using Google and other online services.
And, in order to mitigate against the extremely unlikely event of Google going haywire and perma-deactiviating my account, I run takeouts twice a month. These large data dumps don't need to be heavily redundant, since it's exceedingly unlikely I'll need them at all.
Granted, going from a takeout backup back to 80% functionality would be a ton of work, but I'd lose very little, and I could indeed become functional again in relatively short order.
I wonder if people who decide to ditch most things Google/cloud for no other reason than concern about the risk of said cloud providers terminating their access have truly considered the risk/reward. Bad news, like specific cases of 'unjust/surprising' account termination percolates up to wide visibility quickly and easily, and stays with the people who read such things a long time. The hundreds of millions of accounts that have no such problems escape our attention.
I don't know the odds of my Google account getting terminated, but I'm pretty certain that it's in the same magnitude as the number of people winning the lottery per year.
Having said that, there are a lot of other good reasons to think about ditching cloud providers.