Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure. For instance, I had a buddy that was sure Bernie would win the NY democratic primary since Bernie had such huge rallies and people were excited. I trusted the polls. We both made small bets on PredictIt - I even bet Clinton would win by at least a 15 point margin, since that's where the polls were. I won, and he now trusts poll aggregates more.
Heh. New meaning to "put your money where you mouth is." Perhaps a corollary.
Cognitive bias cheat sheet
41–50 of 143 posts
Re: Cognitive bias cheat sheet
#42This is 'cheat sheet'; short and handy reference for making a quick decision. Full reference is probably a few tons of books. I feel that someone who just uses instinct, will make faster and better decision, even with all the biases and cognitive illusions.
If you see a spider, your instinct is to kill it, it's not necessarily the better solution.
Re: Cognitive bias cheat sheet
#43"The world is very confusing, and we end up only seeing a tiny sliver of it, but we need to make some sense of it in order to survive. Once the reduced stream of information comes in, we connect the dots, fill in the gaps with stuff we already think we know, and update our mental models of the world." So wonderfully said. I wonder what biases AI will develop in its models
Logic is simply a way to systematically eliminate these errors in wetware (and ultimately hardware).
Re: Cognitive bias cheat sheet
#44I'm impressed that he managed to figure this out whilst taking care of a baby. When my son was born, I spent most of the wee hours testing which Star Wars theme I hummed worked best for getting him back to sleep. (By the way, The Imperial March worked best, especially slowed down and rocking him on every 4th beat)
Re: Cognitive bias cheat sheet
#45Generally, it is not necessary to understand every single type of cognitive bias in a nuanced way to mitigate the problems. Indeed, sometimes cognitive biases overlap to the extent that trying to mitigate one, you'll wind up affected by another. What's important is that your behavior and social rules be oriented towards uncovering truth through dialectic methods.
Jonathan Haidt, a moral psychologist, recently posted a terrific video on the the issue viewpoint diversity on college campuses-- specifically, the lack of it. Problems of confirmation bias are exaggerated, especially in social sciences, when there's a lack of viewpoint diversity on campus. When everyone likes the conclusions put forth by a paper, no one is motivated to find the flaws. Thus the flaws are not found, the flawed papers get cited by other papers, and you wind up with a knowledge base that is increasingly divorced from reality. Whether you know the name for that bias or not is less relevant than actually addressing the structural problems.
Re: Cognitive bias cheat sheet
#46To summarize biases further, in one word: Incompetence. Lab results confirming cognitive biases come from testing small groups of students (up to 200). Among other things, it means: (1) respondents with similar background, so we can't generalize (2) respondents don't care about outcomes, (3) tests are synthetic. Plus publication bias and other standard issues. These results are themselves a sort of confirmation bias.…
It's not that simple. Some cognitive biases, especially related to shortcuts in decision making, are more prevalent in smarter people. Here's a good jumping off point: http://www.newyorker.com/tech/frontal-cortex/why-smart-peopl... I highly recommend reading more of Daniel Kahneman's work if you find the above interesting.
Re: Cognitive bias cheat sheet
#47This reminds me of master persuader Scott Adams mentioned about "cognitive dissonance"[1] on some of his recent tweets. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance
https://www.amazon.com/How-Fail-Almost-Everything-Still-eboo...
The one thing to take away from this election is that persuasion trumps everything else. It's scary and crazy!
Re: Cognitive bias cheat sheet
#48I think its a slur of excuses we tell ourselves. We just don't care all that much. It's all about filling your brain with the latest instant fad. People get bored if they don't get their fix of fake news or cat pictures. How would they even spend a few hours doing real research and actually trying to think? Way too hard. The internet only exacerbates these issues. This blog is even a prime example. It's telling you w…
Re: Cognitive bias cheat sheet
#49This is cool, although the real trick is knowing when and how to employ methods that will mitigate the problems caused by cognitive bias to accurately identify and resolve conflicts and facilitate clear decision-making. This is the purpose of courts, the purpose of peer review, the purpose of debate. Generally, it is not necessary to understand every single type of cognitive bias in a nuanced way to mitigate the prob…
Re: Cognitive bias cheat sheet
#50I'm impressed that he managed to figure this out whilst taking care of a baby. When my son was born, I spent most of the wee hours testing which Star Wars theme I hummed worked best for getting him back to sleep. (By the way, The Imperial March worked best, especially slowed down and rocking him on every 4th beat)
My kid loves the Imperial March too for some reason. I thought I was a bad parent. Strange we came to the same conclusion. There must be something to this. /s (n=2)