All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware • Hacker News Board

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#891

Post by tim333 » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 7:37 PM UTC

mstolpm wrote: post #683

hipshaker wrote: post #570

Isn't this hackernews?? So many "but what if this and that and this..." & "and yeah let's see if it can handle X & Y" This is the iPhone 1 of self-driving cars! That's akin to saying Apple should have waited to release their phone until iPhone 7 "because of this & that & this..." Don't we have to start somewhere ?? Aren't there supposed to be a big user base here who understands that it's an evolutionary process - we…

My opinion might not be popular here, but when I studied computer science, there was a big discussion about the ethical aspects of our job. Especially, I had the opportunity to speak with Prof. Joseph Weizenbaum [1] a couple of times, who always remembered me that users don't know what we as programmers, technicians and scientists know about the limitations of a solution. So we have the duty to ensure that our soluti…

Yeah but there are ~1.25m road deaths per year. The bigger ethical risk is not innovating quickly enough.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#892

Post by nzp » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 7:37 PM UTC

forgetsusername wrote: post #827

drcross wrote: post #734

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>what Musk spins, and reality. The reality is that they are the first serious electric car company. A tiny enterprise that took on the old Detroit giants and is winning. When you see people putting down hard earned cash for something three years into the future, they are not being tricked, they are investing in disruption. He's such a terrible orator you couldn't describe him as a charlatan. It's his actions and peop…

> A tiny enterprise that took on the old Detroit giants and is winning In what way are they "winning" against Detroit? Certainly not in revenues, profits, miles driven or cars produced. Yes, they "own" one segment": high end electric vehicles. No one there is close. But Detroit owns many others. Why does the one that Tesla dominates carry so much weight?

Not high end EV — EV period. Why so much weight? Because it's literally the only direction left for land based vehicles to go (the puns write themselves!) in the next century at least?

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#893

Post by ckinnan » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 7:40 PM UTC

stevenleeg wrote: post #583

rsync wrote: post #551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It is a self driving car, it is so clearly the future, I wish it existed now, it is going to be awesome (in my opinion)." Even now, several years into the current news/development arc of self-driving cars, I still can't believe this is going to be the future. We're really never going to european (or japanese) style train networks ? We're really going to keep binging on roads ? We, as a nation of fat slobs [1] are re…

This! A million times this! While self driving cars will do great things for people such as yourself (and overall I fully support their development/adoption), I also share the fear that it will prevent American urban centers from a desperately needed shift away from cars dependence in favor of better public transit and urban density. I really don't see the idea of every person in the country having their own personal…

A huge part of the urban footprint today is set aside for parking. With self-driving cars, people will use rideshare services and banish parking lots to remote areas outside the city, freeing up more space for parks or density. This technology is also much safer for bikers and walkers. Self-driving will be a benefit for urban areas and supports more walkable cities.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#894

Post by jkchu » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 7:44 PM UTC

woodpanel wrote: post #844

sbierwagen wrote: post #809

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we're continuing the iPhone metaphor from the GP, note that Apple is almost always late to a market segment. When the iPhone was released, Windows CE had owned the smartphone segment for years. The iPod was hardly the first hard drive mp3 player. Apple Watch wasn't the first smart watch. Etc etc etc. Apple makes good products, not innovative ones. It is not at all unthinkable that someone else will release a bette…

Continuing that path I'd say: Tesla gets software right. Way better than what I've seen in other cars. But what stops that iPhone metaphor for me is Design, Materials and Finish. Apple Products look and feel like luxury. Where as Tesla only achieves that on the software side - and in your pocket.

I wouldn't be surprised if most people disagreed with your notion that Tesla cars do not look luxurious.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#895

Post by Huppie » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 7:52 PM UTC

flexie wrote: post #625

dingaling wrote: post #549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because everyone who goes EV wants to go Tesla. Other than the 250,000 drivers of Nissan Leafs... I think that's beyond twice as many as every Tesla ever built.

I really like Nissan Leaf and I love the fact that Nissan is out there as a competitor. But the reason anyone buys Nissan Leaf is that it is for sale already and that the price is only $29,000. Otherwise it's inferior to Tesla model 3 in almost any aspect (not to mention the larger Teslas): - only 107 mile range vs. 215 miles - no super chargers or own network, relies on third party generic chargers - less trunk spac…

1. Comparing the range of an actual 'currently being produced' vehicle to the stated range of a vehicle that's not yet in production is disingenuous in my book. Expect the leaf (v2?) to have at least 25% more range by the time the Model 3 is being produced.

2. While 'more acceleration' sound nice in theory, using all this power is usually pretty bad for your range.

3. While the battery swap sounds nice, in practice battery degradation hasn't been that bad according to many EV owners I talked to. Will it actually be necessary? If you're thinking about swapping the battery for a quick 'charge' I'm not sure that's going to be available for the Model 3 (and even if available, what the costs for doing so will be.).

4. Some might like the flat screen, I'm personally not a very big fan. Plain old fashioned knobs and buttons are really easy to work with.

I agree with the rest of your list but I'm pretty sure EV sales (especially for the near future, say the next ten years) are not a zero-sum game. Plenty of Leafs, Bolts, Souls, and Model 3s will be sold regardless of the fact that the Model3 may be 'better' based on your definition.

Disclaimer: I drive a Kia Soul EV with 'only' ~100 miles real-world range.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#896

Post by Darthy » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 7:54 PM UTC

To be safely aware of its surroundings, an autonomous vehicle must have two types of sensors in each direction - this setup is not safe enough.

I would also have proof of 10 million kilometers of simulated rides with no accident, and a third party organization not under the control of Tesla who creates some really tough repeatable challenges, both simulated and in the real world, that a vehicle manufacturer has to pass.

Challenges should include:

- thin wire tensioned over the street.

- the combination of super heavy rain with lighting, thick fog and people suddenly running onto the street

- passing by a soccer field and ball bounces over the street. Car should stop because it can be reasonably expected that a child will run blindly onto the street after the ball

- have obstacles that minimally invade into the minimum clearance outline of the current planned course. Car should plot an alternative course if it is possible or stop. Obstacles should appear in the last moment possible and car should always do the right thing.

- proof that the car can always detect street boundaries, any obstacle, and especially humans. It should be 100% correct or side on the safe side every time. At night, in a rain storm with super thick smog and hail. I'm not joking.

These are the minimum limits before any self-driving car should be able to drive on public roads, imho.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#897

Post by Animats » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 7:59 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #857

devy wrote: post #674

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LIDAR's high cost[1] is prohibiting it from being commercialized. This article below was dated 2015 so price might have actually gone down a bit - but still a few orders of magnitude higher than cheap ultrasonic sensors and cameras. This is actually common problem not only for Tesla. We won't see LIDAR in production cars (you will certainly see them in prototype cars as usual) until its cost drastically reduced [1] h…

It's more than just high cost, LIDAR has issues with rain making it questionable in real world conditions. AKA, if you need some fallback, just use that fallback.

With range gating, you can do a lot with LIDAR in rain and fog.[1][2] It's possible to ignore all reflections out to a given distance, and you can adjust that distance. There's been a lot of work on this for the military. Automotive LIDAR units don't have this yet, but it could easily be added. If you have both range gating and "first and last", where you get the time of the first and last reflection, you can easily distinguish fog and rain from hard objects. The distribution of first and last times on fog and rain should look like Gaussian noise, while a hard target has near-equal first and last.

This is something we'll probably see in second-generation self-driving cars. With range-gated LIDAR and millimeter radar, self-driving cars will do far better in fog and heavy rain than humans do.

[1] http://www.sensorsinc.com/applications/military/laser-range-... [2] http://www.obzerv.com/en/range-gating-technology/core-expert...

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#898

Post by Animats » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 8:02 PM UTC

visarga wrote: post #423

patrickg_zill wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually we also have very sophisticated direction finding sound processing, and tactile sensors on the wheel and seat plus proprioceptors (a trade secret that no at tesla has been able to reproduce). This allows for e.g. driving over snow and being able to process the sound of the snow as it is driven over as a hint to the rest of the driving system.

There's no reason why a microphone and an accelerometer would be hard to connect as input features. The car can make use of the same hints, and most probably make better use than even humans by learning to distinguish more informative patterns.

When we were designing our vehicle for the 2004 DARPA Grand Challenge, we considered installing a guitar pickup on the frame to sense vibration. Early plans for the Grand Challenge involved more off-road driving, and we wanted something to give us a sense of surface roughness. In practice, the off-road aspect wasn't important and we were overdesigned in that area. We had a 6-wheel drive vehicle and a windshield washer/compressed air cleaning system for the sensors, which were totally unnecessary.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#899

Post by tajen » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 8:09 PM UTC

forgetsusername wrote: post #827

drcross wrote: post #734

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>what Musk spins, and reality. The reality is that they are the first serious electric car company. A tiny enterprise that took on the old Detroit giants and is winning. When you see people putting down hard earned cash for something three years into the future, they are not being tricked, they are investing in disruption. He's such a terrible orator you couldn't describe him as a charlatan. It's his actions and peop…

> A tiny enterprise that took on the old Detroit giants and is winning In what way are they "winning" against Detroit? Certainly not in revenues, profits, miles driven or cars produced. Yes, they "own" one segment": high end electric vehicles. No one there is close. But Detroit owns many others. Why does the one that Tesla dominates carry so much weight?

Tesla's market cap is $30bn, more than Renault, Mazda, Chrystler or Subaru (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9055885). If they execute well on the Gigafactory, they may apply a multiplier on this market cap, reaching above Toyota ($200bn), even with a tenth or a hundredth of their production. Why would it be more valued, per car produced? Because of its future potential.

> Why does the segment that Tesla dominates carry so much weight?

The stock market is adjusting for a By the way, maybe a sweeping change is preparing that the petrol generations can't foresee. We could imagine things like an international agreement on global warming suddenly reducing the worldwide production of cars. It's impossible today, but educated people may have good reasons to believe something like this will happen, in which case Tesla wins all.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#900

Post by mark-r » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 8:18 PM UTC

hipshaker wrote: post #570

Isn't this hackernews?? So many "but what if this and that and this..." & "and yeah let's see if it can handle X & Y" This is the iPhone 1 of self-driving cars! That's akin to saying Apple should have waited to release their phone until iPhone 7 "because of this & that & this..." Don't we have to start somewhere ?? Aren't there supposed to be a big user base here who understands that it's an evolutionary process - we…

If we've learned anything about AI learning systems, it's that they require as much training data as possible. By putting the hardware in the cars now, Tesla can start gathering that training data on a scale that nobody else can dream of. Anybody who can't see that as a huge competitive advantage isn't well informed.