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All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

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Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#301
post #91

I think what people are missing here is an understanding of how these systems are tested and deployed at scale. While I have no involvement with Tesla I do have first-hand knowledge of similar programs at tier 1 automotive suppliers. The suppliers provide (or are looking to provide) an electronics suite to car manufacturers. The car manufacturers want the system to be safe lest they be sued out of existence. One part…

"Data collection that would take years can happen in weeks"

I think that we are talking days, not weeks, or probably that Teslas can have multiple teams testing various hardware and algorithms at the same time: Tesla plans on producing 500k cars per year from 2018. If all of them have this equipment, and they drive a conservative 10k miles per year in average, Tesla will gather data from 5 billion miles driven after a year. Next year they will have 15 billion miles. After 6 short years that will amount to more than 100 billion (B) miles accumulated.

For comparison, Google's self driving cars have driven less than 2 million miles until now and unless they team up with a car manufacturer or launch their own car, their project is soon irrelevant. I imagine this would only be accentuated as tech talent would prefer to work where their algorithms can be tested in a couple of days rather than where such test would take years.

EDIT: And just imagine how cool it is that since their cars drive all over the globe, in all traffic situations, under most traffic rules, in all conditions, and both winter and summer, day and night at the same time, a team can actually test changes to an algorithm on cars selected for certain conditions (500 cars in Minnesota's winter weather at the same time as 500 in Australia's summer, 500 during daylight in Asia at the same time as testing 500 driving at night in Europe, 1,000 cars in rainy weather, 1,000 cars in sun, 1000 cars in fog, 1,000 cars in snow, all within hours).

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#302

From the car purchase page, it seems that they are charging an additional $13,200 (combining the addons Enhanced Autopilot and Full Self Driving capability at $7,900 and $5,300 respectively) for the full experience: https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/models/design

Software switch fee. You get the same hardware, different feature flag. Crazy right?

How is that different from buying software for a computer? I can install a linux distribution or buy windows. It's the same hardware, different "feature flag". Somehow that's not crazy.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#303
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm totally just guessing, but possibly they still need training data for the new hardware configuration which they will collect from the newly sold cars. They could pay testers to drive them around for a while to generate that data or just roll it out to the public and crowd source the problem. They deliver less functionality at launch but start generating revenue earlier. Most large car companies don't mind deferri…

That is what the press release says.

"I'm totally guessing"

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think stats will be enough to overcome the human perception factor. Self driving cars have what I consider to be an insurmountable pr problem.

I think americans are going to get left behind in this technology. It's not just the crumbling infrastructure, it's the lack of public transport options. I expect there will be plenty of cities around the world that will be adopting self-driving car technology long before the US does.

Surely lack of mass transit would be a boon to self-driving cars. Public transportation makes owning a car — self-driving or otherwise — less necessary.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#305

So, I am buying hardware I can't use solely for the purpose of providing data to a for-profit company for free to improve its product for another generation of customers?

It's not free for tesla. The hardware cost is what tesla paid to obtain that data. The people that use the autopilot hardware effectively subsidise your car.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#306
post #297
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's staggering that Tesla don't use LIDAR at all. Sure LIDAR is more expensive but the data quality is very stable and good. Cameras won't work that well or at all in night or when the sun rays blend in morning / evening or in bad weather conditions like heavy rain or snow. All other self-driving cars I know of have at least a small LIDAR beside several other types of sensors.

Besides being almost as expensive as the car they mount on top and stick out like a sore thumb. This is the reason. It doesn't look cool. Amazed that people don't realize that.

In that sense, aerodynamics might play a role as well.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#307
post #91

I think what people are missing here is an understanding of how these systems are tested and deployed at scale. While I have no involvement with Tesla I do have first-hand knowledge of similar programs at tier 1 automotive suppliers. The suppliers provide (or are looking to provide) an electronics suite to car manufacturers. The car manufacturers want the system to be safe lest they be sued out of existence. One part…

I am going play devil's advocate here. In the future, would Telsa use these data for other purposes? ie after analysing the data, it finds that my driving behaviour risk and has a higher chance of accident. It could trigger high insurance premiums or restriction on which car I can purchase etc.

Let me play the devil's advocate here as well :)

What exactly is the problem with punishing people for risky driving? Or rather, let them pay a corresponding premium to cover for the (statistically expected) higher damages they will cause? Keep in mind that driving behaviour is something the user has full control of, in contrast to e.g. disabilities, for which of course no insurance premium should be paid.

I actually think this is a good idea, and would like to hear opposing opinions.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#308
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at what is not said, my interpretation is that previous Teslas will not be software-upgraded to full autonomy because the problem is harder than they previously thought.

Their LIDAR provider pulled out and now they're switching to camera-based CV and ending development of the LIDAR branch. I think they're hoping that this approach matures enough to match the capability of LIDAR in time for them to meet their market goals.

Either you're confused or I'm confused as to what you're talking about. Tesla has never used LIDAR and they actually leaned more heavily on CV until recently when they started using radar more extensively.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Studies have shown[1] that most people think they're an above-average driver, so your statement isn't very convincing. This cognitive bias is called Illusory superiority ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority ). [1] Here's one that says 80% of people rated themselves above-average on a number of important driving characteristics - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/00014575869... . And it'…

Do you have evidence that most people aren't above-average drivers? I would be pretty shocked if driving skill was normally distributed. I would guess that there are few extremely good drivers (you can only do so much to improve), but significantly more extremely bad drivers. This would drag down the average. Even if you word your survey question in terms of medians, people are bad at numbers. I don't think you can r…

I don't think there are huge numbers of extremely bad drivers. People who are extremely bad drivers tend to have their license taken away, and thus are no longer drivers at all. In fact, I would wager that, when considering average as the mean (not the median), most people are probably below-average. As previously mentioned, there's a minimum bar for driving ability, and I would also wager that most people are pretty close to the average to begin with. But there are fair number of exceptional drivers (e.g. anyone who drives for a living is likely to be a much better driver than the average person, as are any of the numerous people who do a lot of recreational driving).

All that said, even if your premise was correct, it would allow for a simple majority to be better than average, but it wouldn't allow for 80% of people to be better than average.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#310
post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about the solid state LIDAR mentioned by the GP?

Needs to be mounted high up and then the car doesn't look cool anymore.

Once the cost goes down, multiple LIDAR units can be mounted behind the windshield. Cars designed for automatic driving should reserve the top inch or so of the windshield for sensors, with the optical sensor suite mounted at the front edge of the roof and covered with padding matched to the headliner. (Yes, auto glass today is often infrared-opaque to reduce heat input, but the IR-opaque layer could be omitted for the top inch.) Putting cameras behind the rear view mirror is already done, but more space may be needed.

The rotating Velodyne thing Google uses is an interim research tool. In production, expect to see better design.

With enough LIDAR units, full-circle coverage can be achieved. This is already being done with cameras. The rear and side units need less power and range than the front-facing units, so they can have a smaller collecting aperture, making them easier to place. For the front-facing units, the emitter can be spread out, allowing higher power. The rules on eye safety are concerned with the maximum power coming through a 1/4" hole (human eye pupil). If the laser emitters are spread out over the width of the windshield, the maximum power per unit area is reduced.

The CMU/Cadillac demo a few years ago managed to conceal all the sensors. It can be done. It just costs too much until one of the three companies claiming to be building low-cost automotive LIDARs Real Soon Now manages to deliver.

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