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How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

nytimes.com

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Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#71

Post by adventured »

wildmusings wrote: post #55
nnq wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sincere question: HOW? I mean, even if we assume a socialist economy is terribly inefficient, like operating at 50% of the efficiency a capitalist one, it still should be enough for sustaining a resource-rich country. WTF they are doing so wrong?! Are they under intense internal or external sabotage? Corruption is so bad? I mean, this is not some mid-African country with >50% of the population illiterate, bunch of ho…

> I mean, even if we assume a socialist economy is terribly inefficient, like operating at 50% of the efficiency a capitalist one, it still should be enough for sustaining a resource-rich country. That's a hell of an assumption. One of the things you're failing to consider is that when resources are allocated by fiat instead of by markets, corruption becomes much more pervasive and suffocating. Also, all of the peopl…

Interestingly, the parent comment didn't consider near total collapse of production, rather than just a mere ~50% style reduction in efficiency. What actually has happened throughout history's many attempts at Socialism, is production collapse. That's exactly what we've seen in Venezuela.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#72

Post by cobbzilla »

Curious American asking any Venezuelans out there: how does this situation get any better? What do you look to for hope? I'm not familiar with the Venezuelan media perspective (any non-state-affiliated stations left?), but from here, it seems like there is no serious effort to change course; on the contrary Maduro seems to be driving ahead with the notion that, somehow, more of the poison will cure the patient.

When does the change in direction come? What brings it on? Will Maduro step down? Will his successor do any better? Or will his successor be even more dictatorial? It's all very worrisome, my heart goes out to those who live under such incompetent rule.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#73

Post by mikeash »

metaphorm wrote: post #56
matt_wulfeck wrote: post #26

Venezuela is a failed state at this point. I'm more than happy to personally take them as an example of why spending big on social programs doesn't produce long-lasting social benefits. I understand many people will find a point of disagreement here. This is especially true when corruption is rife. In countries with high corruption, it seems the very best thing to do is to limit as much as possible how much money flo…

Venezuela is a case study in corruption, authoritarian dictatorship, rampant interference from outside states, and a multiple decades long brain-drain due to the aforementioned factors. this should not be held up as ANY KIND OF EXAMPLE whatever re: the efficacy of social safety net programs. it's simply a non-sequitur. the fact that you're even attempting to link them at all speaks poorly as to your own understanding…

I really don't get it. This sentiment always pops up on here when Venezuela is discussed. In the Chavez era, the ruling party pushed through rule by decree, suffered a military coup, purged the opposition, tried to set up their leader as dictator for life... and the lesson we should take away from the resulting chaos is that big spending on social programs doesn't produce long-lasting benefits?

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#74

Post by [deleted] »

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #66
tptacek wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone sees their own ideological nemeses in the HN user base, which is both a sign that things are working well, and a reason for us all to avoid ideologically-charged political discussions as much as we can. I promise, the "anti-US left" sees HN as stuffed to the gills full of US apologists as well.

My comment is tagged with 'flagged' and set to the lowest score. Obviously these forums lean young and college students which subscribe generally to College identity politics which is very far left. Meanwhile, extremely low effort posts of "Shut up, Socialism works, there's nothing to see here," are voted up uncritically. Tell me again how these forums aren't biased?

[deleted]

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#75

Post by justincormack »

ufo wrote: post #50
nnq wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sincere question: HOW? I mean, even if we assume a socialist economy is terribly inefficient, like operating at 50% of the efficiency a capitalist one, it still should be enough for sustaining a resource-rich country. WTF they are doing so wrong?! Are they under intense internal or external sabotage? Corruption is so bad? I mean, this is not some mid-African country with >50% of the population illiterate, bunch of ho…

A big factor is that oil prices tanked in 2014.

no, it was in a very bad way before that.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#76

Post by bdamm »

adventured wrote: post #57
joshred wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but what about the other states that spend on social programs and ended up successful? This is like throwing out a carton of eggs because one of them broke.

How many nations fall into that category? There are only roughly 28 nations on earth with a GDP per capita over $20,000 for example. I happen to find what the six or so best managed welfare states in Europe have accomplished, to be impressive. However, for every Sweden in Europe, there are two Bulgarias. Or there's France, which has seen economic stagnation for nearly a generation. Most of the well-managed welfare st…

How is this different from the US practice of issuing ever more treasury bonds to pay back the maturing treasury bonds? My point is that borrowing from the future is not limited to welfare states (unless you consider US to be a welfare state.)

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#77

Post by iKenshu »

adventured wrote: post #65
tim333 wrote: post #32

You wonder how long Maduro will hang in there. With him gone they could return to somewhat sane economic policies.

I keep wondering if Venezuela won't end up somewhat copying Argentina and politically moving away from the numerous failed policies of the Chavez era.

As Venezuelan I hope no.

I think everything that can happen with the opposition can't be worse.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#78

Post by varjag »

adventured wrote: post #57
joshred wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but what about the other states that spend on social programs and ended up successful? This is like throwing out a carton of eggs because one of them broke.

How many nations fall into that category? There are only roughly 28 nations on earth with a GDP per capita over $20,000 for example. I happen to find what the six or so best managed welfare states in Europe have accomplished, to be impressive. However, for every Sweden in Europe, there are two Bulgarias. Or there's France, which has seen economic stagnation for nearly a generation. Most of the well-managed welfare st…

Look this is pointless argument. Same way we could argue that small government, sovereign citizen, libertarian meritocracy leads to Somalia.

There is a continuum of social systems that can work, and whether it works mainly depends on confounding factors. History, culture fit, geography, neighbours. E.g. Sweden's been an empire most of its history; Bulgaria has been a colony. Check their performance in historical cohort perhaps? Sweden vs Turkey and Bulgaria vs Tajikistan?

Chavez' Venezuela system is well beyond the "habitable range" of governance. To present it as some condemnation of West European welfare states is ridiculous.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#79

Post by dghughes »

cheald wrote: post #10
conistonwater wrote: post #4

> Early this year, the United States began shipping more than 50,000 barrels a day of the light crude that Venezuela needs to prepare its own oil for export What does this mean? How does this work? Why do you need oil to make oil?

Venezuelan oil tends to be very heavy and needs to be mixed with light crude for refinement. It does have its own light reserves, but they've driven the oil industry into the ground and are unable to produce enough light crude to refine their heavy crude production.

I think very heavy is an understatement you could probably call it soft pitch.

Alberta tar sands is similar, thick crude oil mixed with sand, but I don't think it's anywhere near as thick as the oil in Venezuela.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#80

Post by rm_-rf_slash »

forgetsusername wrote: post #60
matt_wulfeck wrote: post #26

Venezuela is a failed state at this point. I'm more than happy to personally take them as an example of why spending big on social programs doesn't produce long-lasting social benefits. I understand many people will find a point of disagreement here. This is especially true when corruption is rife. In countries with high corruption, it seems the very best thing to do is to limit as much as possible how much money flo…

> Venezuela is a failed state at this point. Remember when the far left held Hugo Chavez up as the paragon of modern socialism? People pleasing in a petro-state is easy when oil is $150+ a barrel.

That's a good point. It's easy to bring a lot of good to a lot of people when there's a lot of money to be made from a lot of natural resources.

It's also easy to let "just a little" corruption ride along as a political price for getting things done.

Problem is, "just a little" corruption always becomes "a bit more" corruption and then "way too much" corruption. And while the good and the corrupt engage in battle royale for limited resources, the poor and hungry are soon forgotten.

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