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The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]

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Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]

#11

Post by Enzolangellotti »

EdwardCoffin wrote: post #3

In section 17, Stress-Influence Tendency (p21-22), he mentions some final work by Pavlov, but doesn't provide a citation. I spent some time trying to find it when I first read this years ago, but was unable to. I'm wondering whether it's even reliable: I'd think that work by Pavlov could be found with him as an author, rather than in a "popular paperback" written by an un-named psychiatrist. If anyone knows what book…

Rom Harre's Pavlov's Dogs and Schrödinger's Cat (Oxford University Press) covers some of his experiments.

Daniel Todes' Biography of Pavlov presents some of the material as well.

Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]

#12

Post by niftich »

dfsegoat wrote: post #6
EdwardCoffin wrote: post #3

In section 17, Stress-Influence Tendency (p21-22), he mentions some final work by Pavlov, but doesn't provide a citation. I spent some time trying to find it when I first read this years ago, but was unable to. I'm wondering whether it's even reliable: I'd think that work by Pavlov could be found with him as an author, rather than in a "popular paperback" written by an un-named psychiatrist. If anyone knows what book…

Not sure if it is the case here at all. But sometimes those old Soviet-bloc "original research" documents can be hard to find. An example of this elsewhere is the Levenshtein distance -- everybody knows what this is, but the actual original document was a Soviet-era journal: Влади́мир И. Левенштейн (1965). Двоичные коды с исправлением выпадений, вставок и замещений символов [Binary codes capable of correcting deletio…

Given the productivity of Russian academics and the difficulty in obtaining a lot of these journals, has there been a concentrated effort to make these available for a modern, web-enabled audience?

Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]

#13

Post by dsjoerg »

whack wrote: post #4

I realize this is going to make me sound rather dull-minded, but despite the pdf sounding very interesting, I don't have much inclination to read 27 pages of it without knowing more. Can someone summarize the author's main thesis, and whether he's able to robustly justify that thesis with supporting evidence?

Main thesis is that people's behavior is not rational in specific ways, and can be better understood through a list of various "Tendencies" that people are subject to. There's a list of them on the bottom of page 4.

Supporting anecdotes are provided, but they don't prove anything.

Best case, this paper will help you organize, crystallize and clarify things you yourself have always known or noticed, but never had a name for.

Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]

#14

Post by tvchurch »

whack wrote: post #4

I realize this is going to make me sound rather dull-minded, but despite the pdf sounding very interesting, I don't have much inclination to read 27 pages of it without knowing more. Can someone summarize the author's main thesis, and whether he's able to robustly justify that thesis with supporting evidence?

This is a collection of mental models Charlie uses to explain human behavior. It was basically behavioral psychology before the field exploded.

Definitely take the time to read it. While it isn't a peer reviewed piece of work, you'll agree with his justifications simply on the basis of agreeing that, Yup, that is indeed how people act.

Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]

#15

Post by EdwardCoffin »

dfsegoat wrote: post #6
EdwardCoffin wrote: post #3

In section 17, Stress-Influence Tendency (p21-22), he mentions some final work by Pavlov, but doesn't provide a citation. I spent some time trying to find it when I first read this years ago, but was unable to. I'm wondering whether it's even reliable: I'd think that work by Pavlov could be found with him as an author, rather than in a "popular paperback" written by an un-named psychiatrist. If anyone knows what book…

Not sure if it is the case here at all. But sometimes those old Soviet-bloc "original research" documents can be hard to find. An example of this elsewhere is the Levenshtein distance -- everybody knows what this is, but the actual original document was a Soviet-era journal: Влади́мир И. Левенштейн (1965). Двоичные коды с исправлением выпадений, вставок и замещений символов [Binary codes capable of correcting deletio…

Another possibility that occurred to me is that the subject matter of this particular paper is pretty unpleasant, perhaps any potential translators simply shied away from it.

Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]

#16

Post by danvoell »

sivers wrote: post #9

This is by Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's less-public partner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Munger There are two great books collecting his thoughts: https://sivers.org/book/SeekingWisdom https://www.poorcharliesalmanack.com/pca.php His main quip is, "All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there." It's meant metaphorically, in that his approach to success is mainly to just avoid mis…

Interesting. I've read quite a few of Buffett's year-end reports, I wonder how much of these are written by Munger? Their writing style seems to overlap a little.

Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]

#17

Post by SyneRyder »

whack wrote: post #4

I realize this is going to make me sound rather dull-minded, but despite the pdf sounding very interesting, I don't have much inclination to read 27 pages of it without knowing more. Can someone summarize the author's main thesis, and whether he's able to robustly justify that thesis with supporting evidence?

I wouldn't say that's dull-minded - one of the things I like about HN is checking the comments first and seeing whether people vouch for a link or not. The "Cliff Notes" version is never a substitute for reading the whole thing yourself, but it might be enough to help decide if it's worthy of your time or something you wouldn't be interested in.

Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]

#19

Post by FT_intern »

whack wrote: post #4

I realize this is going to make me sound rather dull-minded, but despite the pdf sounding very interesting, I don't have much inclination to read 27 pages of it without knowing more. Can someone summarize the author's main thesis, and whether he's able to robustly justify that thesis with supporting evidence?

I skimmed it. It's a condensed summary of cognitive bias concepts similar to those in Thinking Fast and Slow, explored and justified through practical reasoning.

Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]

#20

Post by [deleted] »

whack wrote: post #4

I realize this is going to make me sound rather dull-minded, but despite the pdf sounding very interesting, I don't have much inclination to read 27 pages of it without knowing more. Can someone summarize the author's main thesis, and whether he's able to robustly justify that thesis with supporting evidence?

[deleted]
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