The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
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The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
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Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#2Thank you for posting this. I've read dozens of psychology books and articles. Even though they repeat the same principles, they are always a fun read. But I never apply them. Do people have guidance on how to start using this knowledge?
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#3In section 17, Stress-Influence Tendency (p21-22), he mentions some final work by Pavlov, but doesn't provide a citation. I spent some time trying to find it when I first read this years ago, but was unable to. I'm wondering whether it's even reliable: I'd think that work by Pavlov could be found with him as an author, rather than in a "popular paperback" written by an un-named psychiatrist. If anyone knows what book he must have been talking about, or can point to the particular papers by Pavlov, I'd like to know.
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#4I realize this is going to make me sound rather dull-minded, but despite the pdf sounding very interesting, I don't have much inclination to read 27 pages of it without knowing more. Can someone summarize the author's main thesis, and whether he's able to robustly justify that thesis with supporting evidence?
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#5I realize this is going to make me sound rather dull-minded, but despite the pdf sounding very interesting, I don't have much inclination to read 27 pages of it without knowing more. Can someone summarize the author's main thesis, and whether he's able to robustly justify that thesis with supporting evidence?
Sure, they totally did!
(And because you didn't read it, you'll never know if I'm bullshitting you or not. Don't outsource your thinking.)
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#6In section 17, Stress-Influence Tendency (p21-22), he mentions some final work by Pavlov, but doesn't provide a citation. I spent some time trying to find it when I first read this years ago, but was unable to. I'm wondering whether it's even reliable: I'd think that work by Pavlov could be found with him as an author, rather than in a "popular paperback" written by an un-named psychiatrist. If anyone knows what book…
Not sure if it is the case here at all. But sometimes those old Soviet-bloc "original research" documents can be hard to find. An example of this elsewhere is the Levenshtein distance -- everybody knows what this is, but the actual original document was a Soviet-era journal:
Влади́мир И. Левенштейн (1965). Двоичные коды с исправлением выпадений, вставок и замещений символов [Binary codes capable of correcting deletions, insertions, and reversals]. Доклады Академий Наук СCCP (in Russian) 163 (4): 845–8. Appeared in English as: Levenshtein, Vladimir I. (February 1966). "Binary codes capable of correcting deletions, insertions, and reversals". Soviet Physics Doklady 10 (8): 707–710.
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#7I realize this is going to make me sound rather dull-minded, but despite the pdf sounding very interesting, I don't have much inclination to read 27 pages of it without knowing more. Can someone summarize the author's main thesis, and whether he's able to robustly justify that thesis with supporting evidence?
Sure, they totally did! (And because you didn't read it, you'll never know if I'm bullshitting you or not. Don't outsource your thinking.)
That's like not reading reviews before going to a restaurant.
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#8You can also listen to him giving this speech here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqzcCfUglws
I revisit this material every couple years. It's so easy to fall into these traps in your thinking.
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#9This is by Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's less-public partner.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Munger
There are two great books collecting his thoughts:
https://sivers.org/book/SeekingWisdom
https://www.poorcharliesalmanack.com/pca.php
His main quip is, "All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there."
It's meant metaphorically, in that his approach to success is mainly to just avoid mistakes.
(He's my hero.)
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#10I realize this is going to make me sound rather dull-minded, but despite the pdf sounding very interesting, I don't have much inclination to read 27 pages of it without knowing more. Can someone summarize the author's main thesis, and whether he's able to robustly justify that thesis with supporting evidence?
Sure, they totally did! (And because you didn't read it, you'll never know if I'm bullshitting you or not. Don't outsource your thinking.)
> Don't outsource your thinking
Should he believe you or not? I'm baffled.