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Coup attempt underway in Turkey

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Re: Coup attempt underway in Turkey

#291

Post by afarrell »

Steeeve wrote: post #288
Animats wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Turns out that it wasn't entirely, or even mostly. Erdogan's call that did it. The mosques turned on their call-to-prayer PA systems and ordered their followers into the streets. [1] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/turkey-low-flying...

It's disturbing that leaders (political or religious) would put their constituents in harms way. I keep reading that Erdogan is popular, but I also read that he was elected with only 13% of the vote.

> put their constituents in harms way.

Such is the way of leaders throughout history. For instance, Rev. Dr. King deliberately had teenagers get assaulted with dogs, water cannon, and truncheons as a tactic for getting media attention.

Re: Coup attempt underway in Turkey

#292

Post by Jugurtha »

em3rgent0rdr wrote: post #215
Jugurtha wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two trucks and a few soldiers lined in a row like ducks . A tank sitting alone. If the coup you're executing results in civilians being able to seize a tank and police having soldiers in custody, the coup lacked the overwhelming ingredient and swift execution that would paralyze and kill any hope of resisting. It needed to be clear that the deal was sealed to morally crush anyone willing to resist and make them under…

but military knows it can't easily get away killing civilians.

You're very right! This is precisely why they must avoid a situation where civilians think they have a chance.

Imagine you're one of 20 soldiers guarding a bridge.

4 people come to cross. They look at you, see that you're 20 and don't like those odds, they won't even attempt to cross. But even if they get funny ideas, you can scare them more easily. But even if they're determined, the number of civilians each one of you has to shoot is small: 1 civilian for every 5 soldiers. You can manage. You can direct your shots to be non lethal. You have time to aim and all.

Now imagine it's a thousand people. The civilians look at you, size you up, and they like those odds. They know some of them are going to die overrunning you, but almost no one thinks they will be the one. This makes them go for it.

What's your perspective? You're in a dilemma: you don't want to betray the mission to interdict that bridge, that's for sure. But let's say you're willing to shoot, the deal is the following: if you start shooting, you better not be overrun because once you go that path there's no turning back. This puts you in a corner into thinking "What if they still don't stop" and the number of people each one of you has to shoot on average is huge: 50. 50 civilians for each one of you. In a very limited time frame. You're not in a war zone, most of them are unarmed, and you could know or be related to some of them.

So, do you go on with the mission? Do you shoot everyone? Do you start shooting but then stop shooting? But when you do, you'll be captured, and you'll be captured after killing many civilians..so you failed to interdict the bridge and failed not to kill citizens. It's not like you dropped your weapons before there were any civilian casualties.. Which you can't do either because you have a mission.

This is one of the situations where anything half-assed becomes a blood bath and a "victory" à la Pyrrhus..

Contrast that with a military presence strong enough that sends a signal loud and clear to the civilians they'd better not mess with you because there's no chance they could succeed. Dissuasion to avoid a bloodshed.

Re: Coup attempt underway in Turkey

#293

Post by Animats »

Current status as reported by government of Turkey:

- Coup attempt claimed to be unsuccessful.

- About 1500 members of military arrested so far. Two senior generals will be tried for treason.

- About 90 dead reported so far.

- Heavy damage at parliament building and presidential palace.

- Airports supposedly reopening soon. (Airport departure list shows "Delayed" for everything except one flight to Odessa.) [1]

- If Erdoğan hadn't been able to make a speech via FaceTime, which was relayed by a TV station, the coup might have succeeded. He also sent a text to his entire contacts list. The amusing thing is that Erdoğan is against social media.

[1] http://www.ataturkairport.com/en-EN/flightinfo/Pages/Departu...

Re: Coup attempt underway in Turkey

#294

Post by elcapitan »

elcapitan wrote: post #279
majani wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is a chart that describes the practical steps: https://embed.gyazo.com/4324b66e1a3045ad63349061a76f4756.png According to that illustration, the coup plotters missed the crucial step of breaching the president's residence and capturing him. They completely mistimed the coup when the president was on vacation outside the country. Now he has been able to rally support against the coup and his supporters are on the…

Where is that chart from, from the book mentioned a few comments above?

Update: Ok, yes, found it via Image Search: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-how-to-execute-a-coup-2...

Re: Coup attempt underway in Turkey

#295

Post by jokoon »

Animats wrote: post #293

Current status as reported by government of Turkey: - Coup attempt claimed to be unsuccessful. - About 1500 members of military arrested so far. Two senior generals will be tried for treason. - About 90 dead reported so far. - Heavy damage at parliament building and presidential palace. - Airports supposedly reopening soon. (Airport departure list shows "Delayed" for everything except one flight to Odessa.) [1] - If…

> The amusing thing is that Erdoğan is against social media.

It's not like the internet is a regulated place to have a thoughtful conversation. There are not that many countries where the government can risk itself using the internet for its benefit. Freedom of speech is important, but seen how Turkey is bordering Syria, I would not like to sit at Erdogan's place either.

Re: Coup attempt underway in Turkey

#297

Post by JohnStrange »

fatihdonmez wrote: post #277

It's same like Reichstag fire. Now Erdogan is more powerful to change constitution with presidential system. ps: I'm turkish

Yes, I'm afraid your country has just become a full-fledged dictatorship -- of the modern pseudo-democratic "Russia-style" sort, of course. Very sad. :(

Re: Coup attempt underway in Turkey

#298

Post by kgwgk »

jokoon wrote: post #295
Animats wrote: post #293

Current status as reported by government of Turkey: - Coup attempt claimed to be unsuccessful. - About 1500 members of military arrested so far. Two senior generals will be tried for treason. - About 90 dead reported so far. - Heavy damage at parliament building and presidential palace. - Airports supposedly reopening soon. (Airport departure list shows "Delayed" for everything except one flight to Odessa.) [1] - If…

> The amusing thing is that Erdoğan is against social media. It's not like the internet is a regulated place to have a thoughtful conversation. There are not that many countries where the government can risk itself using the internet for its benefit. Freedom of speech is important, but seen how Turkey is bordering Syria, I would not like to sit at Erdogan's place either.

That's ok, he doesn't want anyone else to sit at his place anyway.

Re: Coup attempt underway in Turkey

#299

Post by blahi »

gkya wrote: post #283
blahi wrote: post #281

Turkey had its chance. Ersogan proves that islamhas a much longer road to go still.

I've gone through too much tonight to bother say anything about your ignorance. But sitting and waiting won't earn anything to anybody. Turkey as a member would be useful to EU. However if we had a popular vote now on whether to bother continue the negotiations, it'd certainly come out no, because the demeaning, hubristic, and unstable approach of the EU in our regards.

Yeah a dictator oppressing media and opposition definitely fits the EU, you are right and I am ignorant.

Re: Coup attempt underway in Turkey

#300

Post by tajen »

dmix wrote: post #128
DanielBMarkham wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. That's coup d'etat 101: capture political leaders and secure them. Only then can you move on to the next step. If this thing goes south -- and I fear it will -- the backlash will be severe. Not a good thing for the future of Turkey.

> If this thing goes south -- and I fear it will -- the backlash will be severe. Not a good thing for the future of Turkey. Especially considering he has been a tempered authoritarian before the coup. Now they will respond by expanding authority. Leaders like that always do. Hopefully that will further lead to support of the coup end goals which had some legitimacy. The only problem is that Erogdan has many hardline…

But those military gained access to aircrafts, bombs and their activation systems, which they used to bomb the parliament and seemingly many other targets in Ankara and Istambul. Makes you wonder how safe is Europe.

> The only problem is Erdogan has many hardline islamic fanatics to help m...

Ahem, really, how safe is Europe if, for example, France decided that we have an Islamisation/integration problem, and started massively revoking visas from Mediterranean regions? How would Turkey / Turkey military dissidents with access to such weapons react?

So maybe yes, maybe it should be made clear that military people in Turkey should follow orders and only orders, or be subject to martial law.

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