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Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

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Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#81

Post by sschueller »

newjersey wrote: post #19
tacos wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah yeah. But does anyone here with a history of building something more complicated than a Rails app want to bet real money that Musk will put a Dragon on Mars AND ship 500,000 Teslas in 2018? He's not exactly known for hitting his ship dates or volume targets.

What is exactly the penalty for missing ship date targets? Slight cost increases? Lower profit margins? Do they have difficulty with cash?

People will buy an alternative electric car which is very likely to be available from other manufacturers by then.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#82

Post by dragontamer »

gutnor wrote: post #64
givinguflac wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just crazy wrong. The Tesla S is insanely more safe, energy efficient, gets about the same amount of range, and will absolutely smoke an accord in a 0-60 and 1/4 mile race. Are you saying its a better value because it would be less expensive? You could say a $20 POS android phone is a better value than a galaxy s7 because it costs less and does mostly the same stuff, but it doesn't make that true.

> and will absolutely smoke an accord in a 0-60 and 1/4 mile race Yeah, that's just the right argument. I'm sure you are talking about taking your car to the track, no driving like a reckless idiot.

Funny thing is, Tesla Model S isn't your best value for money as a track car either.

Its 4500lbs minimum, the P85D is even heavier (larger batteries I guess?). Its got a skidpad turn of .85g, while the good high-performance cars are .95g or higher.

A $25,000 Subaru WRX achieves 5-star safety rating and gets 1:45 Laguna Seca lap time.

The Tesla Model S "Performance Edition" gets a 1:48 Laguna Seca lap time.

https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-laguna-s...

I think its weight forces the Tesla S to take slower and wider turns, while the more nimble cars manage to beat it on the Track.

Once you leave the 30k price range and into the cars that are ACTUALLY competing against the Tesla Model S, you start getting to Cadelac CTS-V and faster cars.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la6BZ89Z6bs

1:38 on the CTS-V.

And yes, the CTS-V is a large 4000lb luxury 4-door sedan. Its price, size, and weight-competitive against the Model S.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#83

Post by PantaloonFlames »

stupidcar wrote: post #59
Gracana wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those statements are all still largely true, they haven't been "cycled through." There are a lot of good things happening in the world of electric cars, but right now, for most people, they're too expensive and they require sacrifices in utility and convenience that aren't seen in ICE vehicles.

The Model X has 250 mile range. But you think it's "largely true" that electric cars have a range problem? There are ~600 charging stations worldwide, and that's increasing to 1200 during 2016. But you think it's "largely true" that there's no charging infrastructure?

Spoken like a true believer. 600 charging stations worldwide, eh? There are probably 600 gasoline stations in my metro area.

Therefore, emphatically Yes, it's "largely true" that there is no charging infrastructure.

All of the things people have cited as challenges for EVs are still true:

- limited charging infrastructure - limited range - limited data on longevity (look at Leaf's battery life)

The range issue may be moot for commuters, who drive 40-50 miles. They can also plugin at home, and recharge at night.

EVs will grow in usage. Slowly.

The question of whether Tesla can scale up its manufacturing operation is a different one. Unrelated to EVs.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#84

Post by rchowe »

SwellJoe wrote: post #71
stupidcar wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Model X has 250 mile range. But you think it's "largely true" that electric cars have a range problem? There are ~600 charging stations worldwide, and that's increasing to 1200 during 2016. But you think it's "largely true" that there's no charging infrastructure?

Not the person you're responding to, but yes and yes. 600 charging stations worldwide ? That's worse than I thought. I'm traveling across country as we speak (I live in an RV). I've seen one electric car charging option in the past few weeks...I've filled up over a dozen times in that period. Realistically speaking, you cannot take an electric car on vacation. That doesn't mean I don't love electric cars (I even held…

You may not have seen that many dedicated electric car charging outlets, but I bet many of the RV parks you've stayed at have a 220 V / 50 A NEMA 10-5 connector, which can give you about 30 miles of charge per hour in a Tesla. Not a supercharger, but decent.

Availability of non-Tesla electric charging depends vastly on where you are. In the northeast, there are a bunch of places that have 2-4 EV spaces with a CHAdeMO connector which (anecdotally) are always full. So if you're planning a trip cross-country, you basically have to stick to the interstates for superchargers.

If you have an RV, you probably think that traveling cross-country via only the interstates is a pretty bad way to see the sights though :).

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#85

Post by PantaloonFlames »

icebraining wrote: post #42
cletus wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No offense intended but you come off sounding like a True Believer here. There have been and continue to be severe limitations on electric cars: - high cost of batteries - limited range largely limits them to urban settings - materials currently required for manufacturer are limited - cold weather reduces battery effectiveness and thus range - time to charge is a huge issue compared to simply refilling a tank - charg…

Time to charge is not a huge issue, you can simply replace the battery for a full one. Tesla has an automated battery swap station that can replace one in 90 seconds.

> you can simply replace the battery for a full one.

I don't think so. The Tesla Model S batteries are everywhere through the chassis. There is no single "battery" to replace. It would be major surgery to swap batteries - you'd have to remove the passenger compartment from the lower frame. The car is not designed for that form of "refueling".

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#86

Post by Spooky23 »

givinguflac wrote: post #48
Spooky23 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of those things are still true. A duded-up Honda Accord is a better value than an Everyman Tesla in every category.

This is just crazy wrong. The Tesla S is insanely more safe, energy efficient, gets about the same amount of range, and will absolutely smoke an accord in a 0-60 and 1/4 mile race. Are you saying its a better value because it would be less expensive? You could say a $20 POS android phone is a better value than a galaxy s7 because it costs less and does mostly the same stuff, but it doesn't make that true.

Like 99.8% of drivers, I don't race my car, so that stuff doesn't really matter. If you care about that, compare to a BMW 5 series.

I used an Accord as an example because I'm familiar with it, feel free to pick almost any midsize sedan to reach the same conclusion. Perhaps a Volvo or Subaru would address whatever your safety concern is.

If you look at the 90th percentile car buyer driving 12-15k/year, there is still a total cost premium from an operations POV. Insurance will skew that more.

In terms of range, Tesla makes a compelling case for a typical commute. But any distance driving is a different story. Charging on the go is both sparsely available and very time consuming.

I'm not saying it's a bad car, just a poor value for most people.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#87

Post by brobinson »

dragontamer wrote: post #82
gutnor wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and will absolutely smoke an accord in a 0-60 and 1/4 mile race Yeah, that's just the right argument. I'm sure you are talking about taking your car to the track, no driving like a reckless idiot.

Funny thing is, Tesla Model S isn't your best value for money as a track car either. Its 4500lbs minimum, the P85D is even heavier (larger batteries I guess?). Its got a skidpad turn of .85g, while the good high-performance cars are .95g or higher. A $25,000 Subaru WRX achieves 5-star safety rating and gets 1:45 Laguna Seca lap time. The Tesla Model S "Performance Edition" gets a 1:48 Laguna Seca lap time. https://fo…

Heavier cars also wear through tires faster and put more stress and heat on the tires/brake pads/rotors.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#88

Post by abalone »

dragontamer wrote: post #78
pbreit wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are =you= talking about? Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are far more modern and informed by Silicon Valley. Electronic cars (outside the Model X) have far fewer parts and are substantially less complex than combustion engine. Tesla has =far= better software development capabilities which is becoming much more important. Tesla has a much simpler distribution network and much closer contact with users. etc, et…

Then why did Edmund's car need FOUR drive units in two years? http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... That's the FOURTH drive unit (3rd replacement) their Model S needed. The fact of the matter is, my Ford Focus (and most people's Toyota Camry from the 90s) has needed less maintenance than than the two-year test Edumnds did on the Model S. Unless you like paying $90,000+ for a car that dies in…

That actually is anecdotal evidence.

Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#89

Post by encoderer »

PantaloonFlames wrote: post #85
icebraining wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time to charge is not a huge issue, you can simply replace the battery for a full one. Tesla has an automated battery swap station that can replace one in 90 seconds.

> you can simply replace the battery for a full one. I don't think so. The Tesla Model S batteries are everywhere through the chassis. There is no single "battery" to replace. It would be major surgery to swap batteries - you'd have to remove the passenger compartment from the lower frame. The car is not designed for that form of "refueling".

No you're definitely wrong about this. I don't think they're widely available but the S is designed for drop in battery replacement

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#90

Post by dragontamer »

abalone wrote: post #88
dragontamer wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why did Edmund's car need FOUR drive units in two years? http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... That's the FOURTH drive unit (3rd replacement) their Model S needed. The fact of the matter is, my Ford Focus (and most people's Toyota Camry from the 90s) has needed less maintenance than than the two-year test Edumnds did on the Model S. Unless you like paying $90,000+ for a car that dies in…

That actually is anecdotal evidence. Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.

> That actually is anecdotal evidence.

If it happened ONCE its anecdotal evidence.

If it happens repeatedly to different reporters around the world? That's a statistic. The Model S drive unit is not reliable. Period. It doesn't matter how "simple" an electric motor theoretically is, in practice, the Model S motor has clear drive unit issues.

> Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.

I thought the "Roadster" was when they were supposed to get all of these issues figured out. The Model 3 has to be built in a year in capacities of (wtf?) 500,000 / year by 2018 or something.

There's no room for experimentation here. Elon Musk is ramping up production extremely fast and has set stunningly high expectations.

---------

Now, don't get me wrong, I think Tesla is a great company with a great vision. And that Musk is doing his best. But what I'm trying to say is that this company's balance sheet, and reliability record with their cars is causing me some concern at this point.

I would like it if Tesla could succeed, but I'm not going to hold back on criticism just because I like their mission.

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