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Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#61

Post by mtgx »

tmptmp wrote: post #32
apalmer wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a big difference between Electric Vehicles as a whole and Tesla. Electric Vehicles are 'probably' here to stay and will 'probably' eventually make up a significant portion of first world mainstream automobile market. Whether Tesla significantly leads the industry in volume of Electric Vehicles manufactured and sold is another matter entirely. The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the aut…

>>The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself. What you say makes some sense, though, you seem to forget that there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to ma…

It's also very likely that the car makers of the future will be the ones that are best at software, not hardware, ironically enough.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#62

Post by cuttwested »

"For anyone who firmly believes in Musk and his potential to turn massive initial investments into equally massive profits -- as Jeff Bezos did at Amazon -- the vision of Musk manning the production line is brilliant branding. But for anyone with more than a passing knowledge of the auto industry, it shows how badly Musk fails to understand what he's up against."

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#63

Post by izacus »

orik wrote: post #16
erk__ wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Teslas are still "rich peoples' toys" some places, model s cost 120000 USD for the cheapest model.

Tesla's are really affordable cars in other places (Norway), due to tax incentives for electric vehicles over vehicles.

A car that still costs 60.000EUR (and that's a really stripped down model) after incentives is nowhere near "affordable" for most of Europe, much less world.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#64

Post by gutnor »

givinguflac wrote: post #48
Spooky23 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of those things are still true. A duded-up Honda Accord is a better value than an Everyman Tesla in every category.

This is just crazy wrong. The Tesla S is insanely more safe, energy efficient, gets about the same amount of range, and will absolutely smoke an accord in a 0-60 and 1/4 mile race. Are you saying its a better value because it would be less expensive? You could say a $20 POS android phone is a better value than a galaxy s7 because it costs less and does mostly the same stuff, but it doesn't make that true.

> and will absolutely smoke an accord in a 0-60 and 1/4 mile race

Yeah, that's just the right argument. I'm sure you are talking about taking your car to the track, no driving like a reckless idiot.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#66

Post by vkou »

jblow wrote: post #9

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…

Point #3 has always been true. Tesla has been having difficulties scaling production or making ship dates for years, now.

I've yet to see anything that will convince me that they will ship 500,000 cars in 2018.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#67

Post by majormajor »

flexie wrote: post #60
apalmer wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a big difference between Electric Vehicles as a whole and Tesla. Electric Vehicles are 'probably' here to stay and will 'probably' eventually make up a significant portion of first world mainstream automobile market. Whether Tesla significantly leads the industry in volume of Electric Vehicles manufactured and sold is another matter entirely. The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the aut…

Tesla, while an engineering wonder, is much less complex to produce than cumbustion engine vehicles. It's a wheeled computer. I suspect their challenge will be more about getting enough resources for batteries and finishing the production plant. Remember, right after apple launched the iphone and experts claimed smartphones were for the first world while growth would be in the third world?

Having issues with, say, your gull-wing doors is not specific to electric cars. Same with the issues they're having with the Model 3 and suppliers not being able to meet the dates they want. (Drive units dying is specific to electric cars, but that's also likely to just be teething pains.) There's a lot more to a car these days than a power plant.

The engine is, comparatively speaking, the solved problem for car reliability these days, at least in the first 100k or 200k miles. One of the most common characteristics of unreliable or fancy traditional cars is flaky electronic systems, as Telsa is as complicated as anyone there.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#68

Post by chmaynard »

ArcticCelt wrote: post #6

Worst case scenario, wouldn't it be conceivable that the guy who built a car and space rocket company from scratch now creates/buy a lithium mining and/or battery making company to be able to supply Tesla different projects (cars, powerwall)?

Tesla is probably pursuing a partnership with a company like Toyota that can already mass-produce autos. If GM can do it, why not Tesla? (The author didn't mention that possibility, which makes me suspicious that he has an axe to grind against Tesla.)
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