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Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#51

Post by stevep98 »

icebraining wrote: post #42
cletus wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No offense intended but you come off sounding like a True Believer here. There have been and continue to be severe limitations on electric cars: - high cost of batteries - limited range largely limits them to urban settings - materials currently required for manufacturer are limited - cold weather reduces battery effectiveness and thus range - time to charge is a huge issue compared to simply refilling a tank - charg…

Time to charge is not a huge issue, you can simply replace the battery for a full one. Tesla has an automated battery swap station that can replace one in 90 seconds.

Those battery swap stations were mixed (... For now?)

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/news/a25...

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#52

Post by api »

jblow wrote: post #9

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…

Same thing with reusable rockets. First it won't work, now it won't be economical.

These are moribund industries where nothing has changed since the 60s. After a while they've come to believe that nothing can change.

Lithium is more common in Earth's crust than lead and many other materials that are mined in significantly greater quantities.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#53

Post by dagw »

orik wrote: post #16
erk__ wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Teslas are still "rich peoples' toys" some places, model s cost 120000 USD for the cheapest model.

Tesla's are really affordable cars in other places (Norway), due to tax incentives for electric vehicles over vehicles.

Not really, the basic no frills model S starts at over $80k. Sure that's a lot cheaper than other cars in the same performance class, but that's a far cry from being affordable.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#54

Post by apalmer »

tmptmp wrote: post #32
apalmer wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a big difference between Electric Vehicles as a whole and Tesla. Electric Vehicles are 'probably' here to stay and will 'probably' eventually make up a significant portion of first world mainstream automobile market. Whether Tesla significantly leads the industry in volume of Electric Vehicles manufactured and sold is another matter entirely. The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the aut…

>>The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself. What you say makes some sense, though, you seem to forget that there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to ma…

What are you talking about. I mean specifically. What state of the art manufacturing/engineering/processes do you specifically speak of that Toyota can only dream of that Tesla can employ?

Are you talking from facts? OR are you talking from feelings, and hunches, and faith in Musk?

Space X, is one thing... in that bracket Musk is competing with inefficient opponents who have historically benefitted from lack of competition, crony government contracts, in an industry that is primarily product engineering driven that requires a small volume manufacturing of extreme high complexity vehicles

In Tesla he is competing against highly efficient opponents who have been in a dog eat dog survival of the fittest competition for going on 40 years which is only somewhat product engineering driven and high volume manufacturing of relatively low complexity vehicles.

Tesla can overcome this... possibly but it is a huge challenge that a responsible investor cannot sweep under the rug...

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#55

Post by kalleboo »

tmptmp wrote: post #32
apalmer wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a big difference between Electric Vehicles as a whole and Tesla. Electric Vehicles are 'probably' here to stay and will 'probably' eventually make up a significant portion of first world mainstream automobile market. Whether Tesla significantly leads the industry in volume of Electric Vehicles manufactured and sold is another matter entirely. The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the aut…

>>The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself. What you say makes some sense, though, you seem to forget that there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to ma…

> there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to manufacture the fossil fuel cars

Do you have any good articles that explain this difference? I'm honestly curious what changes when you change the propulsion system.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#56

Post by deelowe »

_asummers wrote: post #44
epoch1970 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$75,000 is still about 2 times the cost of a brand new traditional luxury car. It's about 3 to 4 times the cost of a brand new lower-end or mid-range car. It's 10 to 20 times the cost of a used car. Maybe $75,000 isn't as unaffordable as $120,000, but it's not exactly cheap for most car consumers.

That is precisely is why the Model 3 will be $35k, less than half your stated cost. Not everyone needs a Model S.

> Teslas are still "rich peoples' toys"

Operative word is "still." The 3 isn't out yet.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#57

Post by SEJeff »

qaq wrote: post #28
tacos wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah yeah. But does anyone here with a history of building something more complicated than a Rails app want to bet real money that Musk will put a Dragon on Mars AND ship 500,000 Teslas in 2018? He's not exactly known for hitting his ship dates or volume targets.

Reminds me of Louis CK rant "..cause now we live in, in an amazing, amazing world and it's wasted on the, on the crappiest generation of just spoiled idiots...". The dude disrupted 3 major industries and all we can do is complain that he is not hitting ship dates or volume targets let's just stone him for this horrible transgression.

Four! Look at what PayPal did for online banking... They pioneered it.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#58

Post by apalmer »

whoisthemachine wrote: post #47

It's interesting because the software development strategy of break things fast is based off of agile methodologies developed by Toyota. If any place is primed to be the birthplace of a car company that emulates Toyota, then SV is it. And there's no reason tesla can't be one of those companies.

whoa whoa whoa... the foundation goal to which Toyota's strategies have been focused for the last 50 years have been explicitly towards improving quality of the vehicle once it leaves the factory... The time to market focus at the cost of quality that is a rational viable model in software is the antithesis of the toyota way...

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#59

Post by stupidcar »

Gracana wrote: post #20
jblow wrote: post #9

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…

Those statements are all still largely true, they haven't been "cycled through." There are a lot of good things happening in the world of electric cars, but right now, for most people, they're too expensive and they require sacrifices in utility and convenience that aren't seen in ICE vehicles.

The Model X has 250 mile range. But you think it's "largely true" that electric cars have a range problem?

There are ~600 charging stations worldwide, and that's increasing to 1200 during 2016. But you think it's "largely true" that there's no charging infrastructure?

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#60

Post by flexie »

apalmer wrote: post #17
jblow wrote: post #9

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…

There is a big difference between Electric Vehicles as a whole and Tesla. Electric Vehicles are 'probably' here to stay and will 'probably' eventually make up a significant portion of first world mainstream automobile market. Whether Tesla significantly leads the industry in volume of Electric Vehicles manufactured and sold is another matter entirely. The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the aut…

Tesla, while an engineering wonder, is much less complex to produce than cumbustion engine vehicles. It's a wheeled computer.

I suspect their challenge will be more about getting enough resources for batteries and finishing the production plant.

Remember, right after apple launched the iphone and experts claimed smartphones were for the first world while growth would be in the third world?

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