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Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

bloomberg.com

21–30 of 131 posts

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#21
post #15
post #9

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…

Teslas are still "rich peoples' toys" some places, model s cost 120000 USD for the cheapest model.

You must be inhaling ICE exhaust.A new Tesla Model S is $76.5k

https://www.teslamotors.com/models/design

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#22
post #9

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…

"Shipping is a feature." Imagine someone rear-ends your current gas-guzzler and the insurance company totals it. Now try and buy one of the damn things. Over the air suspension upgrades are great. So is being able to walk onto a lot and drive a car home.

EDIT: "Pretty sure you can have one delivered like, next day." Love the HN optimism. As if my comment didn't imply that I just got fuckin' rear ended and tried to buy one of the damn things. Website says June on the S. I was told July. X is several months out (no firm date).

You know what really sucks about talking to a salesman on the lot? Being told, "ain't got any and you can't have one."

EDIT 2: CPO? If I'm going to pay $130,000 for a used car it better come with C3PO. The pre-owned market is warped because you can't buy a new one. It's all part of being unable to meet demand. My argument stands.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#23
post #9

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…

Most of those things are still true. A duded-up Honda Accord is a better value than an Everyman Tesla in every category.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#24
post #13
post #5

It should be clarified that this is an op-ed. The author does not cite any hard facts, and the primary argument seems to be that the author believes that only Toyota's methods are the methods that work, and because Tesla isn't doing what Toyota did, but has ambitious goals, it will fail.

Yeah yeah. But does anyone here with a history of building something more complicated than a Rails app want to bet real money that Musk will put a Dragon on Mars AND ship 500,000 Teslas in 2018? He's not exactly known for hitting his ship dates or volume targets.

I don't put too much trust into Elon time, but I do believe that if it is at all possible to achieve, Elon is going to will it into existence.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#25
post #13
post #5

It should be clarified that this is an op-ed. The author does not cite any hard facts, and the primary argument seems to be that the author believes that only Toyota's methods are the methods that work, and because Tesla isn't doing what Toyota did, but has ambitious goals, it will fail.

Yeah yeah. But does anyone here with a history of building something more complicated than a Rails app want to bet real money that Musk will put a Dragon on Mars AND ship 500,000 Teslas in 2018? He's not exactly known for hitting his ship dates or volume targets.

Are you saying that he'll get to Mars, but not on time? I'm positive he'll do it alright. Whether its 2018, 2019, or 2020, hardly diminishes the feat.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#26
post #21
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Teslas are still "rich peoples' toys" some places, model s cost 120000 USD for the cheapest model.

You must be inhaling ICE exhaust.A new Tesla Model S is $76.5k https://www.teslamotors.com/models/design

$75,000 is still about 2 times the cost of a brand new traditional luxury car. It's about 3 to 4 times the cost of a brand new lower-end or mid-range car. It's 10 to 20 times the cost of a used car. Maybe $75,000 isn't as unaffordable as $120,000, but it's not exactly cheap for most car consumers.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#27
post #12

Most silicon valley startups try to learn from the Toyota manufacturing process and improve on it. While Toyota got stuck, Tesla gets rid of the most inefficient part of manufacturing process: humans

Humans play an important role in the continuous improvement process.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#28
post #13
post #5

It should be clarified that this is an op-ed. The author does not cite any hard facts, and the primary argument seems to be that the author believes that only Toyota's methods are the methods that work, and because Tesla isn't doing what Toyota did, but has ambitious goals, it will fail.

Yeah yeah. But does anyone here with a history of building something more complicated than a Rails app want to bet real money that Musk will put a Dragon on Mars AND ship 500,000 Teslas in 2018? He's not exactly known for hitting his ship dates or volume targets.

Reminds me of Louis CK rant "..cause now we live in, in an amazing, amazing world and it's wasted on the, on the crappiest generation of just spoiled idiots...". The dude disrupted 3 major industries and all we can do is complain that he is not hitting ship dates or volume targets let's just stone him for this horrible transgression.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#29
post #22
post #9

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…

"Shipping is a feature." Imagine someone rear-ends your current gas-guzzler and the insurance company totals it. Now try and buy one of the damn things. Over the air suspension upgrades are great. So is being able to walk onto a lot and drive a car home. EDIT: "Pretty sure you can have one delivered like, next day." Love the HN optimism. As if my comment didn't imply that I just got fuckin' rear ended and tried to bu…

Pretty sure you can have one delivered like, next day. And not have to deal with the salesman on the lot.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#30
post #12

Most silicon valley startups try to learn from the Toyota manufacturing process and improve on it. While Toyota got stuck, Tesla gets rid of the most inefficient part of manufacturing process: humans

Humans play an important role in the continuous improvement process.

Absolutely. Continuing with the Toyota example, more direct human involvement with the manufacturing process has been reintroduced [1]

[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-06/humans-rep...

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