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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#411

Post by madeofpalk »

levemi wrote: post #318
madeofpalk wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it still be an advanced net if you had humans in the trucks as a 'backup', with the autonomous driving doing 90% of the 'boring' driving down the highways? Humans would still drive the last mile (ha!). Would that be significant safer and more efficient to make it worthwhile? If you limit autonomous driving to the main freight routes on the highway, I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I p…

> Would it still be an advanced net if you had humans in the trucks as a 'backup', with the autonomous driving doing 90% of the 'boring' driving down the highways? Humans would still drive the last mile (ha!). You're exhibiting the AI effect [0]. Could you program the software that makes vehicles drive around "boring" roads? Of course it's advanced. > I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I prev…

> You're exhibiting the AI effect

At first I had no idea what you're referring to, but then I realised the confused stemmed from my typo. I meant to ask whether it was a significant advancement, not an advanced net/AI.

I know self driving cars are a "thing" already, but only in very limited and constrained circumstances. Last time I checked, Google's can only drive on roads where they've meticulously already mapped out everything from the height of the curb to the exact location of the traffic lights. That's not to discount their work, but it's still in the very early stages of the self driving dream of having a car that can drive you anywhere while you watch a movie.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#412

Post by stcredzero »

adrianN wrote: post #177
dv_dt wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that an automated truck will follow a certain safety framework, it's interesting to contemplate if there might be automated truck pirates. Jam mobile connectivity, run the truck off the road by herding it with other vehicles, then break in and run-away with the goods or the entire trailer for that matter.

You can also do that with a human in the truck. I'm not convinced that it will happen more often with automated trucks.

Most humans will keep driving, even without mobile connectivity. Also, destroying electronic witnesses isn't (yet) murder.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#413

Post by gnaritas »

gambiting wrote: post #340
gnaritas wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and paying a massive insurance premium I'm sure Nah, it'll be much cheaper than what they pay for humans since the bots will be in far fewer accidents and insurance companies actually care about statistics.

I think you might be surprised - companies would be insured against a total recall due to software/hardware failure, which would far exceed the cost of any accident a computer could get into, so I guess the premiums might stay relatively high.

> Companies would be insured against a total recall due to software/hardware failure

I don't think that's true at all. Recalls are a manufactures problem, the local trucking company is just going to have normal auto insurance just as with his human drivers.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#414

Post by praxulus »

Retric wrote: post #348
acveilleux wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They started truck automation in mining and container terminals in ports. Areas with no other traffic and the possibility of active guidance (beacons along/embedded in the route and so on.) Highways are the next obvious use. I could see automated trucks driving down the transcanadian highway for example or similar long interstate stretch. I gotta say though, if we're going that way, why not go intermodal, add a RR ri…

Roads are really expensive. Adding rail lines is cheaper to build and operate so a dedicated automated truck lane seems like a poor idea. If anything building 100+ MPH rail for long trips like this seems like a great investment until you adjust for actual traffic levels.

They don't need to build new roads, they just need to add cones to mark off a lane on an existing highway.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#415

Post by elihu »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #96
HorizonXP wrote: post #2

My father is a truck driver. He made his living driving vehicles and doing heavy lifting and menial work. Truck driving is just the latest evolution in his "career" and I'm ever grateful to him for battering his body in various ways to ensure I had every opportunity available to myself. We talk a lot about his job. It's not fun. He works long hours, a lot of it is mundane driving, and he sits idle a lot of the time.…

I think the flaw here is assuming that the systems around the truck will stay the same - including the truck form factor. Without the required creature comforts of the tractor, you free up a lot of energy (heat/cool) and space (bed/TV etc...) in the cab. I can also see traffic lanes being created to support commerce, special easement areas for trucks at stops that don't have to support showers/food/bathrooms etc... r…

"I think the flaw here is assuming that the systems around the truck will stay the same"

That's an interesting point. I wonder if self-driving trucks will tend to be smaller, because there's less incentive to amortize the wages of the driver by making his/her truck as large as possible.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#416

Post by levemi »

madeofpalk wrote: post #411
levemi wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Would it still be an advanced net if you had humans in the trucks as a 'backup', with the autonomous driving doing 90% of the 'boring' driving down the highways? Humans would still drive the last mile (ha!). You're exhibiting the AI effect [0]. Could you program the software that makes vehicles drive around "boring" roads? Of course it's advanced. > I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I prev…

> You're exhibiting the AI effect At first I had no idea what you're referring to, but then I realised the confused stemmed from my typo. I meant to ask whether it was a significant advancement , not an advanced net/AI. I know self driving cars are a "thing" already, but only in very limited and constrained circumstances. Last time I checked, Google's can only drive on roads where they've meticulously already mapped…

Self driving cars technology is AI. It is an advancement, a very significant one that will save many, many lives every day. Self driving cars are not in an early stage. Self driving technology is already worth in the billions. See the GM acquisition of Cruise. These cars have driven hundreds of thousands of miles on real roads that other people are also driving, probably including to a movie theater. You are discount the work and you're doing it from a place of complete ignorance.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#417

Post by saturdaysaint »

mattlutze wrote: post #234
vgoh1 wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One accident might set back consumer driving for 50 years, but not commercial. The safety record simply needs to be much better than human drivers, which shouldn't be too hard, because one driver is already taken out of the equation. And there are billions upon billions to be saved, in our corporatocracy of the USA, it WILL happen. Bad roads shouldn't be too much of a problem, they can just use humans on the bad road…

Public and political perception need to consider autonomous commercial trucking to be safe, rather than safer. "Safer than human drivers" all too easily becomes "we can't control when these robot trucks my crash into a mother driving her kids to school," when you put it into the political regulation arena.

Did cars or trains need to be perfectly safe? Even modestly "safer" autonomous vehicles would save thousands of lives every year and provide priceless benefit to society, giving us millions of productive hours and giving people that can't drive (the elderly and handicapped) new independence.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#418

Post by TheLogothete »

FussyZeus wrote: post #356
TheLogothete wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And the Soviets are a terrible example. Centrally planned economies of course destroy all individual incentives to accel or improve. Which economy is not centrally planned? We have more and more central planning every year. The Soviet Union did not collapse because of central planning. It collapsed because everyone was lazy and stole shit from the factories. No productivity, no quality. People were drinking at work…

The Soviet Union collapsed because they distributed everything to everyone, the problem was it was all terrible and the supply was insufficient due to any one of many things such as problems in distribution, corruption in the suppliers, etc. People who were stealing were by and large doing so out of desperation, which is already happening now in multiple areas around the US and elsewhere. The vast majority of people…

>People who were stealing were by and large doing so out of desperation

This is so profoundly false that I actually feel insulted by how well you think you understand MY history and how much you got it wrong.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#419

Post by beachstartup »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #319
madeofpalk wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it still be an advanced net if you had humans in the trucks as a 'backup', with the autonomous driving doing 90% of the 'boring' driving down the highways? Humans would still drive the last mile (ha!). Would that be significant safer and more efficient to make it worthwhile? If you limit autonomous driving to the main freight routes on the highway, I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I p…

I think that will be the near future; we've already done the exact same thing with airline pilots, who spend most of a flight on autopilot (hence the expression). This allows them to do long shifts with much lower mental pressure. I'm even imagining 24 hour drivers, who let the truck drive autonomously at night on quiet roads at low speeds while they sleep and live in the truck. A bit like lonely spaceship pilots fro…

i think this is a likely first application. you can boost schedules and efficiency massively by simply allowing a truck to drive itself to the next waypoint overnight (maybe not even the whole night -- just to the next safe stopping area) when the driver would normally be sleeping. if there's an emergency, simply stop and pull over and alert the driver.

this is probably also much easier to sell to existing industry and government. you're not eliminating drivers at all, but instead making their jobs easier and profits higher. having zero autonomous trucks on the road during the day is also a PR positive. no road tripping families put at risk, etc.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#420

Post by TheLogothete »

knowaveragejoe wrote: post #362
TheLogothete wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it's not like this has happened ever before. We definitely need basic income. It will solve all the problems.

Correct, nothing like this has ever happened before.

I vaguely remember something about textile workers revolting against automation of labor. Ah, never mind my ramblings. I must remember wrong.
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