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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#291

Post by usrusr »

perseusprime11 wrote: post #262

We need to create a new highway system for driverless cars/vans/trucks/etc. The current road infrastructure with its potholes, tolls, traffic congestion is not ideal. They need to conceive something similar to HOV lanes in order for this to move forward.

Taken to the extreme, a separate network for platooned long haul transport could even be electrified, combining 90% of the relative advantage of railroad over conventional road with more than 100% of the benefits of conventional road over railroad.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#292

Post by Cshelton »

arebop wrote: post #78
Cshelton wrote: post #64

How about we automate rail traffic first. They are close...but the electronic system is still so far behind. They keep having to push back the requiremen.

I think there's less incentive for automating trains because of the cargo:driver ratio. The cost of the human at the helm is a much smaller portion of the cost of operating the railroad.

I was just saying it from a standpoint of that is has been mandated by the government (U.S.) and the date has had to be pushed back multiple times because the railroads are having a tough time implementing it. It's actually a much harder problem then you might initially think. The cost of the human is negligible; it's about the cost of the cargo, and not needing to stop unnecessarily to change the humans out.

Either way, if we can't accomplish automated long distance rail...automated trucking freight doesn't look to be that close.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#293

Post by zanny »

FussyZeus wrote: post #242
TheLogothete wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it's not like this has happened ever before. We definitely need basic income. It will solve all the problems.

No it won't, and it will come with a few of it's own (getting American's past the bootstrap narrative is probably the biggest single one) but it is a step in the right direction. That being said if you can think of another example where we put 3.5 million people out of work nearly overnight along with an entire support system built on their salaries and needs, I'd love to hear it. The only similar thing I could think…

UBI has nothing to contend with the boostrap narrative. You just shift the target. Rather than pulling yourself up by your bootstraps to not starve or die of exposure, you pull yourself up by your bootstraps to do anything at all beyond basic survival with a roof and bread. You want a car? Go work for it. You want TV? Go work for it. Etc.

UBI is only meant to reduce the demand for total income enough that people can recreationally work for things they want, because there isn't enough work to go around for all the things they need. If you wanted to live on a UBI without additional income, you could spend your days at parks or libraries, but by design you should not have the income to be purchasing luxury goods - if you want those you can seek work for them, and because of the drop in labor demand UBI causes, you should still be able to find something.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#294

Post by icebraining »

jqm wrote: post #82
dantiberian wrote: post #12

The introduction of tractors and machinery into farming would have caused a similar amount of job loss (if not more?). I really feel for all of the people and communities that will be affected by the loss of trucking jobs, but in 100 years, we're unlikely to look back and say "I wish we kept human truckers", just like no-one says "I wish we never introduced tractors".

no-one says "I wish we never introduced tractors" The Amish?

Only some of them: http://www.nytimes.com/1995/04/16/us/some-amish-to-use-tract...

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#295

Post by Cshelton »

seansmccullough wrote: post #110
arebop wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's less incentive for automating trains because of the cargo:driver ratio. The cost of the human at the helm is a much smaller portion of the cost of operating the railroad.

Totally agree, they only need a handful of people to operate a multi-mile long train.

Actually not true; the total number of people it requires to move a train, with all the other trains on the track, and then taking in every safety precaution, track monitoring, etc. The operation involves many people on a highly coordinated level...they don't have a lot of room for error with the number of trains on the small amount of track.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#296

Post by CodeCube »

gambiting wrote: post #255
1stop wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's still simple math. More weight, be more aggressive with brakes. If human truck drivers can do it, then a computer truck with a 360 model of the environment around it can do it more efficiently right. I don't understand the problem here really. Computers are way better at logical computation than humans and that's all we require here.

Yes, but there are more problems to consider here. With some types of cargo, applying maximum brakes can actually damage it(think livestock for example). You also don't want the truck to be going into panic mode and applying maximum brakes for a plastic bag or a small animal. I'm afraid that our current technology can at best tell that there is something there, but it won't be able to tell what - humans at the moment…

have you not been following the developments of self driving cars? Like the story of how google cars had problems gauging the intent of bike riders that were themselves stopped to let the car pass ... it looked like they were about to take off, so the car was too conservative and didn't move until the bike changed what they were doing. And then, once that condition was experienced and identified, it was fixed for all google cars in the entire fleet.

I'm pretty sure the car will be able to identify and plastic bag ... not to mention a simple cargo manifest that would apply parameters about how the cargo is to be dealt with.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#297

Post by rayiner »

orbat wrote: post #243
rayiner wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, because computers and software aren't buggy by themselves without human intervention.

It's not a question of whether they're buggy, but whether they are better than human drivers despite the bugs

That isn't the question in the context of my post. I was responding to someone speculating that truck drivers would "engineer" one or two crashes to protect their industry, as if that isn't going to happen anyway.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#298

Post by [deleted] »

anoonmoose wrote: post #285
hluska wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider the politics of wiping out the biggest employer in 29/50 states. Can you imagine the backlash that even one death would cause?

Looks like on-the-job deaths for coal miners in the US are around 30 per year. I imagine the backlash for even one death would be relatively minor. Anyways, eliminating the biggest employer isn't necessarily a net negative. Unless (until) these trucks can load/unload themselves, repair themselves, schedule themselves, etc., there's a lot of work still to be done by people. Hell, I can see ways that automated driving…

[deleted]

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#299

Post by GrumpyYoungMan »

pm24601 wrote: post #194
maccard wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm walking down a busy road with traffic passing me at ~30mph at the moment. Anecdotally, the last 4 cars have had one person in the car who has either been texting on a mobile phone, applying makeup, eating breakfast, and playing with the radio. Do you think the reaction time of the guy who's texting his boss saying he's late would be faster or slower than the driverless car that was in a long garbage collection, i…

Yeap. And if one of them hits you, they are liable. How many software developers want to be held criminally responsible for deaths? Some times we get so fascinated by technology, that we forget that the technology has to fit within human society. Remember the whole concept of product/market fit - if the market rejects the product: it doesn't matter how "cool" the technology is.

>How many software developers want to be held criminally responsible for deaths?

Nope. Short of gross negligence in design, that seldom happens in any engineering field.

How many people were criminally charged in the Challenger disaster? None.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#300

Post by lloyd-christmas »

positr0n wrote: post #288
anoonmoose wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like on-the-job deaths for coal miners in the US are around 30 per year. I imagine the backlash for even one death would be relatively minor. Anyways, eliminating the biggest employer isn't necessarily a net negative. Unless (until) these trucks can load/unload themselves, repair themselves, schedule themselves, etc., there's a lot of work still to be done by people. Hell, I can see ways that automated driving…

Yes but those 30 deaths are people knowingly working a job that society understands is dangerous, not a family in a minivan driving to grandma's house that was unlucky enough to be in the wrong part of the highway at the wrong time. That is a huge difference to most people.

> not a family in a minivan driving to grandma's house.

A total of 3,660 people died in large truck crashes in 2014. Sixteen percent of these deaths were truck occupants, 68 percent were occupants of cars and other passenger vehicles, and 15 percent were pedestrians, bicyclists or motorcyclists. The number of people who died in large truck crashes was 16 percent higher in 2014 than in 2009[1]

One incident would hardly compare to the ~3000 non-trucker deaths ever year due to the trucking industry. I don't think it would be all that tough to find the grandma of one of those 3000 to show up in court in defense of automation. It will be MADD all over again.

[1] http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/large-trucks/fatalityfacts...

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