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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#61

Post by patrickg_zill »

rndmize wrote: post #56
patrickg_zill wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If everything was smooth and regular, trucks wouldn't have a problem. However, the roads, and the warehouse yards, are not. A fully loaded truck traveling 55mph (on some roads they are allowed 65 or even 75) can weigh 80,000 lbs or more (in Canada under certain circumstances, 139,500 lbs). That is a tremendous amount of force that must be handled properly 100% of the time, through rain, hail, sleet, snow - and with s…

It's already not handled 100% of the time. I'll settle for 75% less freeway blocking by crashed big rigs.

I am hopeful that robots can fix it, but most likely it will take a little bit longer... robot trucks will save on fuel, brakes, and tires, as they can be programmed to minimize sudden acceleration and taking a turn too quickly (scrubs rubbers off the tires).

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#62

Post by jessriedel »

WalterBright wrote: post #59

Most of the truck freight carried on highways should be on railroads instead. It's economically and environmentally far more efficient. The reason it is still carried on highways is because the highways are heavily subsidized while the railroads are not. For example, most of the reason for expensive highway maintenance is the fatigue damage cause by trucks. Fatigue damage goes up as the cube of the weight, and the we…

> the weight fees charged trucks don't remotely pay for it.

Source?

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#63

Post by bglazer »

eggy wrote: post #44
HorizonXP wrote: post #2

My father is a truck driver. He made his living driving vehicles and doing heavy lifting and menial work. Truck driving is just the latest evolution in his "career" and I'm ever grateful to him for battering his body in various ways to ensure I had every opportunity available to myself. We talk a lot about his job. It's not fun. He works long hours, a lot of it is mundane driving, and he sits idle a lot of the time.…

We've gotten used to huge commercial airliners flying on autopilot. Granted they have humans on board, but ask any pilot how much flying they do. Even helicopters can be put on autopilot after take-off. That's what the helicopters that run from Macau to Hong Kong many times a day are doing. I can see ironing out the kinks - pedestrians, roadblocks, car stops in front abruptly, etc... I would think you could have a tr…

Honestly, I'm not sure that most people understand the extent to which commercial airline flight is automated. For example, most people are shocked when I tell people that pilots are required to let the plane auto-land under very bad visibility conditions.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#65

Post by WalterBright »

jessriedel wrote: post #62
WalterBright wrote: post #59

Most of the truck freight carried on highways should be on railroads instead. It's economically and environmentally far more efficient. The reason it is still carried on highways is because the highways are heavily subsidized while the railroads are not. For example, most of the reason for expensive highway maintenance is the fatigue damage cause by trucks. Fatigue damage goes up as the cube of the weight, and the we…

> the weight fees charged trucks don't remotely pay for it. Source?

Don't have one. I just recall reading years ago that the fatigue damage cause by trucks loaded to the legal weight limit was 9,000 times that of a passenger car (and trucks are often overloaded). The flexing of the roadbed causes it to crumble away after a while. You can feel the roadbed go down when a truck passes.

The main damage passenger cars do is erosion from snow tires.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#66

Post by losteric »

ascotan wrote: post #52

I'm skeptical. European roads are not American roads. According to google there are over 4 million miles of road in the US and there is very little standardization. I would venture to say that road quality is much worse in the US. I'm skeptical that the sensors in self-driving vehicles are capable of making long hauls on US roads. > We may also need dedicated lanes as slow-moving driverless trucks could be a hazard f…

Well even Germany isn't going to start with self-driving trucks driving everywhere. Every country has standardization problems... in Germany there are ancient towns with arches that trucks can't go under (and not all of them are marked). In the US we have inconsistent/missing signs, dense urban areas built for small cars, and all kinds of crazy human driving.

My guess is actually opposite of yours though. I think short distance trucking will come last, with long-haul interstate trucking coming first. Short distances don't really need an automated truck... the trucker just gets in, drives, and arrives. Automating/standardizing loading/unloading would be great but automating the driver is less of a win.

On the hand, take interstates. Trucker gets in and drives for upward a few days with multiple mandated stops for naps/food... afaik, it takes 3 days to safely drive from SF to NY because of those stops. Now imagine a self-driving truck where the driver is only responsible for first/last-mile driving and refueling... done in 48 hours flat. 30% shorter transit time, plus whatever fuel/insurance savings the AI driver generates. Not bad.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#67

Post by tempestn »

HorizonXP wrote: post #18
tempestn wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article actually mentions that initially we will need human drivers to get the trucks on and off the freeway: "We still need to create on- and off-ramps so human drivers can bring trucks to the freeways where highway autopilot can take over."

I was referring more to the inner-city manoeuvring, and within loading/unloading zones. Getting a trailer lined up with the loading dock isn't an easy task at all. It can be automated, but it's the variability between load length, weight, and the loading dock's surroundings that make it difficult. A comment below talked about harbour pilots. That seems like a great idea.

But my point, and the one made by the article as I understand it, is that you wouldn't even have to do any of that initially. The vast majority of the driver's time is spent just cruising on the highway. That's the part you want to work on automating first, both because it provides the greatest cost savings, and because it's the easiest to solve technically.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#68

Post by ori_b »

jmspring wrote: post #41
ctvo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trucks are way more complicated to drive. Once they're up to cruising speed, they're easy. But it's everything leading up to that point which is hard. Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. The mechanical aspects of controlling a large truck and accounting for the variables is probably the easiest part of the problem. Things involving hum…

Mechanical aspects, may be easy. Modeling human behavior and reacting to it, not so much. I suspect it will still be years before much of trucking is automated. Why? It's not just the take crap from point A to point B, it's also being responsible for making sure what was ordered is actually loaded. It will be years before, say, the laborers at Earth Bound Farms south of Salinas (supplies large quantities of "organic"…

But we've already got automated warehousing systems that work pretty well -- I'd imagine these wouldn't be too hard to extend to load and unload trucks. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that they already can.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#69

Post by onewaystreet »

a3n wrote: post #32

> Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. Awhile back there was a post about the early experience of a young and enthusiastic programmer. The take away phrase, in response to someone sending nonsense input, was "Some people just want to watch the world burn." I can see assholes trying to make sure that an automated truck can't change lanes,…

At first maybe, but people get used to things. Sabotage by replaced workers and luddites is nothing new (just look at the origin of the word luddite). And I wouldn't be surprised if laws are passed that create heavy penalties for interfering with self-driving vehicles.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#70

Post by mc32 »

HorizonXP wrote: post #2

My father is a truck driver. He made his living driving vehicles and doing heavy lifting and menial work. Truck driving is just the latest evolution in his "career" and I'm ever grateful to him for battering his body in various ways to ensure I had every opportunity available to myself. We talk a lot about his job. It's not fun. He works long hours, a lot of it is mundane driving, and he sits idle a lot of the time.…

At least long-distance trucks can have routes optimized for automation (be it via embedding sensors to aid in bad weather or optimizing a lane for trucks, etc.) for the long segments and then at the city limits (or thereabouts) set-up truck "depots" to have human drivers board the truck and give them override to manoeuver through more difficult city or rural last-segment roads and streets.
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