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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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11–20 of 471 posts

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#11

My father is a truck driver. He made his living driving vehicles and doing heavy lifting and menial work. Truck driving is just the latest evolution in his "career" and I'm ever grateful to him for battering his body in various ways to ensure I had every opportunity available to myself. We talk a lot about his job. It's not fun. He works long hours, a lot of it is mundane driving, and he sits idle a lot of the time.…

The article actually mentions that initially we will need human drivers to get the trucks on and off the freeway:

"We still need to create on- and off-ramps so human drivers can bring trucks to the freeways where highway autopilot can take over."

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#12
The introduction of tractors and machinery into farming would have caused a similar amount of job loss (if not more?). I really feel for all of the people and communities that will be affected by the loss of trucking jobs, but in 100 years, we're unlikely to look back and say "I wish we kept human truckers", just like no-one says "I wish we never introduced tractors".

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#14
post #5

My father is a truck driver. He made his living driving vehicles and doing heavy lifting and menial work. Truck driving is just the latest evolution in his "career" and I'm ever grateful to him for battering his body in various ways to ensure I had every opportunity available to myself. We talk a lot about his job. It's not fun. He works long hours, a lot of it is mundane driving, and he sits idle a lot of the time.…

Interesting... They may have humans do all the manoeuvring within the distribution hubs long after they've automated all of the street driving. Shifting and braking, though, seem to me like the kind of thing that automata should be good at. And I suppose that, once most of the cars on the road are autonomous, the streets will be much more truck-friendly.

Sort of reminds me of a Harbor Pilot[0]. A person who holds unique knowledge of how to operate a large vehicle in a particular piece of confined geography.

0: http://www.insidejobs.com/careers/harbor-pilot

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#15
post #4

My father is a truck driver. He made his living driving vehicles and doing heavy lifting and menial work. Truck driving is just the latest evolution in his "career" and I'm ever grateful to him for battering his body in various ways to ensure I had every opportunity available to myself. We talk a lot about his job. It's not fun. He works long hours, a lot of it is mundane driving, and he sits idle a lot of the time.…

I wouldn't be surprised if they start out with "last mile" drivers to deal with off-highway driving.

This was my thought as well. That a new 'tugboat captain' or 'harbor pilot' type role emerges for last mile driving.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#16
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be surprised if they start out with "last mile" drivers to deal with off-highway driving.

But the last mile is where driverless trucks are most useful. For long haul, you can just use trains.

Tell that to the companies that ship items long-haul via trucks. It confuses me too, but somehow, I guess the economics work out.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#17
post #6
post #3

>The demonstration in Europe shows that driverless trucking is right around the corner. The primary remaining barriers are regulatory. We still need to create on- and off-ramps so human drivers can bring trucks to the freeways where highway autopilot can take over. We may also need dedicated lanes as slow-moving driverless trucks could be a hazard for drivers. So, right around the corner except for billions in infras…

Depots on the highway where loads are transferred to human-driven trucks, and dedicated lanes for slow-moving driverless trucks? Might as well put the trailers onto a train, and build out the rail network (where needed) to be as extensive as the highway network. We've already got plenty of driverless trains around.

There are plenty of highways that already have a ton of trucks driving slowly in the right lane. Many routes will need changes to take advantage of this technology, but not all. The on- and off-loading areas will probably need to be created in many places, but that's a lot easier than adding a whole lane.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#18

My father is a truck driver. He made his living driving vehicles and doing heavy lifting and menial work. Truck driving is just the latest evolution in his "career" and I'm ever grateful to him for battering his body in various ways to ensure I had every opportunity available to myself. We talk a lot about his job. It's not fun. He works long hours, a lot of it is mundane driving, and he sits idle a lot of the time.…

The article actually mentions that initially we will need human drivers to get the trucks on and off the freeway: "We still need to create on- and off-ramps so human drivers can bring trucks to the freeways where highway autopilot can take over."

I was referring more to the inner-city manoeuvring, and within loading/unloading zones. Getting a trailer lined up with the loading dock isn't an easy task at all. It can be automated, but it's the variability between load length, weight, and the loading dock's surroundings that make it difficult.

A comment below talked about harbour pilots. That seems like a great idea.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#19
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be surprised if they start out with "last mile" drivers to deal with off-highway driving.

But the last mile is where driverless trucks are most useful. For long haul, you can just use trains.

> For long haul, you can just use trains.

RoLa (Rollende Landstraße) as we call this in Germany, or just transporting the flatbed carriages, requires a SHITLOAD of manual work, unlike containers where you don't even need people on the locos in the yard anymore.

Not to mention that long-haul-via-rail is only viable in the US... in Europe, it virtually doesn't exist anymore. It just isn't profitable due to various external conditions:

1) train track pricing is prohibitively expensive

2) freight trains don't get priority over passenger trains - quite the contrary. If you have any time-sensitive stuff, better transport it via road instead.

3) rail tracks are massively overbooked. One single delay and the entire system grinds to a screeching halt.

4) there is no such thing as cross-Europe locomotives/conductors. There might be multi-system-capable locos, but there is not a single loco on the market able to serve the entire fragmented European railroad technology.

There may be "just" 15/25 kV AC + 1k5/3kV DC, but every country needs their own roof collectors because they're NOT compatible (some countries don't even have roof collectors, but 3rd rails or sideway rails for the low-voltage DC stuff, and the DC stuff usually doesn't pack a lot of power so you can't really use them for any heavy load), but the real tech problem is the load of bollocks called signalling/security system, every country has their own, including Germany alone with FOUR popular systems (classic form signals, light-based signals, LZB/PZB and ETCS, in addition to various customizations in Eastern Germany and the S-Bahn tracks).

Not to mention the conductors which have to know all the signalling systems AND all the languages (compared to aviation where English is the standard worldwide), and they need to be expensively re-certified...

Yeah, ETCS, I hear you, but ETCS is a joke that would require literally hundreds of billions to retrofit across the major transit routes in Europe, but that won't happen - we Europeans haven't even managed to get our freight carriages to silent brakes yet!

5) There are still restrictions like maximum train lengths and the plain fact that European freight carriages only carry a pneumatic line for the brakes, but no data lines for controlling middle/back locos - so there's no technical way of extending train lengths because there's simply no loco combo capable of pulling >700m length heavy freight carriages with 3 locos on the front and no way to control a pushing loco in the back of the train. Simple physics, the good old screw coupling just can't support more load. There are alternatives (C-AKv coupling, it's high load AND compatible with the old coupling) but once again a retrofit would cost billions (see #4)...

Trains might be more efficient from an environmental and human-resources POV, but they're fucked up on any economic scale - and politicians all over Europe don't give a single fuck, instead they are all letting their rail systems rot to pieces and squeeze every tiny penny from the rail companies to fix up their even more rotten state budgets!

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#20
navigating high-grade descents are the wrinkle - truck air brakes seem very finicky. But I think there's no reason why long, sparse, flat freeway sections could not be run by automated cabs relatively soon, for example CA-I5 from Tejon Ranch to Stockton, or the I80 between Chicago outskirts and somewhere in Wyoming.
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