The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs • Hacker News Board

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#141

Post by FussyZeus » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 5:24 AM UTC

Homunculiheaded wrote: post #103

A very useful visual to add next to this is "The Most Common Job In Every State"[0] map from NPR's Planet Money. As soon as I was aware of the research in autonomous driving I was pretty confident trucking would be the first industry hit. Until I saw that map I had no sense of how major of a disruption this could be. [0] http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-t...

Disruption nothing, this is going to be an economic apocalypse for huge swathes of the country. We've never seen an automation wave like this one. It's exciting times to be alive for sure but I'm also legitimately worried if we're going to be able to handle it as a society, if anything is going to tip us into needing basic income, this could be a serious contender.

It's not even just the trucking, it's truck stops, highway diners, tiny motels all over the place, there is a massive amount of infrastructure that was built because of and for truck drivers and their needs, and that's still not it because there are tons of small town economies built on the last job that pays well without a college education that more or less anyone can do.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#142

Post by aidenn0 » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 5:24 AM UTC

patrickg_zill wrote: post #21

thescriptkiddie wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the last mile is where driverless trucks are most useful. For long haul, you can just use trains.

Actually you can't, for a lot of goods. Reason is that the railroad won't give you the same guarantees and trackability a truck will. Example: you have refrigerated items (let's say a shipment of fresh fruit) that has to be maintained at a constant temperature and you want it delivered to your customer on Thursday when you ship Sunday night. Truck: not a problem, and you can easily get updates all the time from dispa…

> If the railroad puts a refrigerator unit on your boxcar and it breaks down, too bad - they won't reimburse you. A trucking company will.

Insurance?

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#143

Post by djrogers » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 5:24 AM UTC

pm24601 wrote: post #127

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the flaw here is assuming that the systems around the truck will stay the same - including the truck form factor. Without the required creature comforts of the tractor, you free up a lot of energy (heat/cool) and space (bed/TV etc...) in the cab. I can also see traffic lanes being created to support commerce, special easement areas for trucks at stops that don't have to support showers/food/bathrooms etc... r…

> All of this comes at cost to human workers - but it's inevitable. I disagree. Specifically, you are assuming that the human workers will quietly accept their fate.

Not quietly, no, but it's no less inevitable.

History is full of jobs that have been automated away, and few of those historical examples offered a more obvious and large payoff.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#144

Post by aidenn0 » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 5:29 AM UTC

intrasight wrote: post #13

I have read this prediction several times this year. I expect to be reading the same prediction in 5 years.

I'm with you on that one, but much less skeptical about say 20 years.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#145

Post by djrogers » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 5:31 AM UTC

krinchan wrote: post #105

I keep saying this over and over and over to my more "the market will figure it out" co-workers and I just can't seem to get through to them. This is literally more than 20% unemployment in less than 5 years. Society will either crumble or completely change how it views unemployment.

> This is literally more than 20% unemployment in less than 5 years

First of all - what? It's not 20%, nor is it happening in 5 years... Neither of those numbers make any sense.

Secondly, accuracy aside, the same arguments were made all through the 70s, 80s, and 90s about manufacturing automation. And guess what, those jobs are gone now, but society didn't crumble.

It's not like his is all brand new people - it's happened over and over again for the past 200 years. Read your history, and realize that we will repeat it.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#146

Post by djrogers » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 5:43 AM UTC

jakelarkin wrote: post #20

navigating high-grade descents are the wrinkle - truck air brakes seem very finicky. But I think there's no reason why long, sparse, flat freeway sections could not be run by automated cabs relatively soon, for example CA-I5 from Tejon Ranch to Stockton, or the I80 between Chicago outskirts and somewhere in Wyoming.

Sure a single air brake is finicky, but 8 hubs with individually controlled regenerative brakes? Sounds like a perfect job for a computer.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#147

Post by quanticle » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 5:44 AM UTC

braythwayt wrote: post #121

quanticle wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, alternatively, do they wait at truck stops on the edge of town and meet the trucks as they come in (much like harbor pilots meet container ships at port entrances)?

I don’t think so. Once you’ve already automates a truck, you have a lot more information to convey than what’s out the windshield, and you are liberated from needing to turn a steering wheel or push foot pedals. There’s no reason to build a cab into the truck that is only used for the last mile. Telepresence will do just fine.

If that's the case, then why aren't cargo ships already automated to this extent? It seems like automating a container vessel would be even easier - there are far fewer things to run into on the water (even in a busy port) than there are on a busy highway.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#148

Post by mabbo » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 5:49 AM UTC

djrogers wrote: post #145

krinchan wrote: post #105

I keep saying this over and over and over to my more "the market will figure it out" co-workers and I just can't seem to get through to them. This is literally more than 20% unemployment in less than 5 years. Society will either crumble or completely change how it views unemployment.

> This is literally more than 20% unemployment in less than 5 years First of all - what? It's not 20%, nor is it happening in 5 years... Neither of those numbers make any sense. Secondly, accuracy aside, the same arguments were made all through the 70s, 80s, and 90s about manufacturing automation. And guess what, those jobs are gone now, but society didn't crumble. It's not like his is all brand new people - it's hap…

The 20% figure isn't actually that crazy.

A small town near where I grew up had a factory- Hershey chocolate- that supported maybe 20% of the jobs in the town. But it represented how 50% or more of the money entered the town. That money bounced around, creating jobs- stores, restaurants, even gas stations and hotels.

When the factory closed, everything was hit. A small town with few sources of external income can be devastated by the loss of a major one.

A huge percentage of America is small towns, and a large portion of them have truckers as their income.

Yes, they economy will recover, but if this automation happens very quickly there can and will be collateral damage.

I'm still for it happening, but the government would be wise to start preparing for the fallout now.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#149

Post by TheSpiceIsLife » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 6:01 AM UTC

MertsA wrote: post #131

quanticle wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, alternatively, do they wait at truck stops on the edge of town and meet the trucks as they come in (much like harbor pilots meet container ships at port entrances)?

If you were able to dispense with the cab and any human interfaces/amenities, that would cut out a big chunk of weight and drag. It would look radically different but just think of all of the components on a truck that are only there for the driver. No need for a cab, AC system, heater, pedals, steering wheel and linkages, airbags, seats, pretty much all of the glass and windows, doors, etc. The added sensors, teleme…

The automated part of the journey could be done by a driverless / cab-less / HID-less prime mover which drops the trailer(s) / cargo containers off at an interchanged where they are picked up by human driven vehicles for the last mile.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#150

Post by peterwwillis » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 6:07 AM UTC

SixSigma wrote: post #139

peterwwillis wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

or, apply full brakes, apply full audible warning and swerve at the last possible moment, while calling the emergency services to put them on alert. But how common is your scenario ? I consider this a more critical failure : The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration suspects that as many as 28% of commercial truck drivers have sleep apnea. The Sleep Medicine Division surmised that nearly a 250,000, persons fall…

> But how common is your scenario ?

Anecdotally, the 3 truckers i've known have complained about it. I now drive very carefully around trucks.

Swerving at the last minute is a non-option because it means turning sharply, which jackknifes the truck. Turning while braking is worse because turning while either braking or accelerating compromises steering. You can try to brake until the last moment and then take off the brakes and try to turn, but again possible jackknife, the wheels could have locked up to the brakes, and now that you're traveling slower you will actually turn slower, so it's harder to cut the wheel and go around. All of this within a few seconds.

You have to either try to slow down and blow the horn, or get out of the way and blow the horn. Some people are lucky and either swerve away from the truck at the last moment, or their car only gets marginally crunched.

One hacker friend of mine's car actually got thrown nearly into the opposite lane of traffic on the highway with the same scenario. Recovery took a while. I think he's still got pain and limited mobility.