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The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

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Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#131

Post by mikeash »

trymas wrote: post #62
doctorcroc wrote: post #7

I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-mod... Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, i…

TL;DR: IMHO, if nothing will change drastically in battery tech, after 100 years, we will have same problem with EVs as we now have the problem with combustion engines and oil. IMHO, one of the biggest problems from the tech side (I know that there are many hard problems, but this concerns me the most) is battery manufacturing. They already have built the gigafactory which produces (or will produce) more batteries (o…

Lithium in batteries doesn't get used up. It just sits there doing its thing, and when the battery wears out, you can recover the lithium and use it in a new battery. It's not currently economical to do so in most cases, but that's largely a function of it just being cheaper to extract it from the ground. It's not comparable to oil, which is inherently destroyed when used to propel vehicles.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#132

Post by ma2rten »

osweiller wrote: post #127
dionidium wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That may be the average cost of a new car, which does not in any way contradict my claim that the median family spends nowhere near that on a car.

Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average? The average family also isn't buying the Kia Rondo, but I'm not claiming that these beginner cars are skewing the values down, just as I see no data whatsoever to demonstrate any skewing up. SUVs are everywhere. Light trucks are everywhere. Minivans are everywhere. Most of these are in the $35K+ range (the F150 -- t…

I did a quick Google search. According to KBB the average price for a new car in August 2015 was $33,543.

Since this doesn't include used cars, I think it's fair to say that the average household is spending less than that.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#133

Post by occamrazor »

jzwinck wrote: post #107
arethuza wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Biggest problem for me with electric cars is the simple fact that I live in a flat - a very nice flat in a very nice European city [1]. Our car lives on the quiet street outside - so how, in the foreseeable future, would I get an electric car charged? NB Is anyone looking into solving this particular problem - because it's one that a lot of people will face. 1 - I mention this as it is inconceivable to me that I woul…

In London I had a neighbor with an electric car. It was parked on the street and plugged in using a long cord to its owner's building. Seemed to work ok, though it wasn't pretty. Plenty of street crime and vandals around, somehow they didn't seem to bother.

And illegal in many jurisdictions (I know with certainty that in Italy it is forbidden to put a power cord on the sidewalk without a permit from the city, and the cord must be covered by a rigid walkway)

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#134

Post by base698 »

gchokov wrote: post #11
doctorcroc wrote: post #7

I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-mod... Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, i…

The hype is too much indeed. It's actually concerning - I believe that a lot of people will get their $1000 back, once the first negative review hits, and this is going to backlash. And we are definitely going to see such reviews, because the negative and "something-gate" news sell well. Disclaimer: I am a fan of Elon. p.s. Why am I being downvoted without a response?

Probably because Tesla has had tons of bad news already: the Model S has had many recalls and reliability issues and the X still hasn't hit its stride in terms of units shipped despite the large backlog. Yet the stock still goes up in periods of obvious trouble.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#135

Post by matwood »

agf wrote: post #24
dionidium wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

The average new car price in March 2016 was $33,666. There are plenty of "mass-produced" cars in this price range. http://mediaroom.kbb.com/new-car-transaction-prices-up-2-per...

I have owned many cars, and I have never paid more than $24k for a car. The only reason I even paid that much was that I needed a full sized truck. $40k for a car seems insane to me.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#136

Post by NickM »

trymas wrote: post #62
doctorcroc wrote: post #7

I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-mod... Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, i…

TL;DR: IMHO, if nothing will change drastically in battery tech, after 100 years, we will have same problem with EVs as we now have the problem with combustion engines and oil. IMHO, one of the biggest problems from the tech side (I know that there are many hard problems, but this concerns me the most) is battery manufacturing. They already have built the gigafactory which produces (or will produce) more batteries (o…

There's a big difference between "currently known lithium reserves" and "worldwide lithium reserves". There's not much incentive to find additional reserves when you can essentially just pick it up off the ground in Bolivia, but if prices start to go up you can bet people will find other ways to get it.

If all else fails, you can extract an essentially limitless amount from seawater, but that would be much more difficult and expensive that current methods, so nobody's bothering to find out how to do it cheaply at scale (yet?).

In any case, elemental lithium is a very small part of the cost of a lithium-ion cell, so this shouldn't impact the EV market much. And you can already recycle the lithium from batteries, so once you have enough to support the world's transport needs, you're pretty much set.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#137

Post by mikeash »

_fizz_buzz_ wrote: post #58
JayHost wrote: post #5

I remember their plan is basically how Ford operated. It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. I remember seeing the concept car for the Chevy Volt a few years ago and thinking how cool it was. Then they released it and made it aerodynamic and thus BORING. It's pretty nuts this car is 35k and the list of advantages to disadvantages can be summed as. There's no reason to buy any other car.

> It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. This amazes me so much. I cannot believe that companies like Volkswagen basically ignore the EV market (except some half-assed E-Golf or something). I mean even if it really turns out to be fad - which I don't believe - don't they want to hedge their bets a little bit? Has nobody there ever heard of companies like Nokia, Blackberry, etc.?

Toyota is the one that really baffles me. I can sorta understand car companies ignoring electric and just continuing to plod along with fossil fuels. I don't think it's wise, but it's what they know. But Toyota seems to be ignoring electric and instead focusing on hydrogen, which just makes no sense whatsoever. It's like they read a collection of EV myths (there's nowhere to charge, you can't take road trips, it's worse for the environment than a normal car) and decided to build a car that made them come true.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#138

Post by techdmn »

dionidium wrote: post #41
prawn wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To the extent people are spending this much, they're insane for doing so. You have probably already realised this if you've lived on the planet for more than 20ish years, but the majority of people certainly seem to be quite insane.

Well sure :) It likely doesn't help that I'm a cheapskate. As a programmer, I'm probably pretty close to the demo that should want a Model 3, but I drive a 2007 Hyundai hatchback with a manual transmission. So I think everybody's crazy.

I'm in a similar boat, I paid cash for a 2003 Mazda hatch with a manual. When I bought it I did the math, and figured that compared to the lease payment and insurance on a new Mazda I would break even in 10 months. I've been driving it for over two years. :-) Why would I want a new car? Then I'd just have to worry about scratching the paint, or even (heaven forbid) drive it nicely. Ug. However, I will say that a Model 3 is the one new car I might consider.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#139

Post by Reason077 »

martin_bech wrote: post #48
Hermel wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. The BMW electric cars (i3 and i8) are quite successful, beating Tesla sales-wise in Germany and selling half as many world-wide. The great weakness of the Tesla S in the German market ist the German autobahn, where it runs out of energy very quickly (after an hour or so for aggressive drivers). The Tesla S is not designed for sustained high speeds.

The i3 is a nice small car, but warranty of the battery is horrible, and the range is only so so, specially in cold weater. The i8 is really a plug in hybrid, looks really amazing, but is slower, holds fewer people, and has less space than my Tesla Model S85D. The autobahn is very valid point, driving at 200km/h+ for sustained amounts of time will drain the battery(the amount if sheer wind resistance, makes power use…

The i3 is a nice small car, but warranty of the battery is horrible

The battery on the i3 is warrantied for 8 years or 100,000 miles, with a drop below 70% of the original capacity considered to be a battery failure.

Tesla also have an 8-year battery warranty, with unlimited miles, but (afaik) they do not explicitly specify what level of capacity loss would be a warranty failure.

Considering most people are unlikely to exceed 100,000 miles in 8 years in a "city car" like the i3, is this really a horrible warranty?

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#140

Post by NickM »

sudhirj wrote: post #9
tajen wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lifetime of most cars is 14-20 years (half of it on the second-hand market). Tesla's is 8 years, if I understand. It makes their cars twice as expensive in effect.

8 years for the battery or the car? The batteries are replacable in a minute or so.

8 years, unlimited miles for the battery and the drivetrain. 4 years and 50k miles for everything else.
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