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The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

teslamotors.com

11–20 of 199 posts

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#11

I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-mod... Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, i…

The hype is too much indeed. It's actually concerning - I believe that a lot of people will get their $1000 back, once the first negative review hits, and this is going to backlash. And we are definitely going to see such reviews, because the negative and "something-gate" news sell well. Disclaimer: I am a fan of Elon. p.s. Why am I being downvoted without a response?

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#12
post #5

I remember their plan is basically how Ford operated. It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. I remember seeing the concept car for the Chevy Volt a few years ago and thinking how cool it was. Then they released it and made it aerodynamic and thus BORING. It's pretty nuts this car is 35k and the list of advantages to disadvantages can be summed as. There's no reason to buy any other car.

>It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly.

The BMW electric cars (i3 and i8) are quite successful, beating Tesla sales-wise in Germany and selling half as many world-wide.

The great weakness of the Tesla S in the German market ist the German autobahn, where it runs out of energy very quickly (after an hour or so for aggressive drivers). The Tesla S is not designed for sustained high speeds.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#13
post #11

I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-mod... Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, i…

The hype is too much indeed. It's actually concerning - I believe that a lot of people will get their $1000 back, once the first negative review hits, and this is going to backlash. And we are definitely going to see such reviews, because the negative and "something-gate" news sell well. Disclaimer: I am a fan of Elon. p.s. Why am I being downvoted without a response?

History will tell. Calculated bets move us forward.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#14
post #2

As he says in short the masterplan is to: "Build sports car. Use that money to build an affordable car. Use that money to build an even more affordable car. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options. Don't tell anyone."

They clearly underestimated the cost of the Model S (it's a luxury car, not a "sporty affordable family car"). But overall their strategy seems to be working out beautifully.

No, I think they changed the strategy somewhat.

Who has the best margins in the automotive industry? Porsche. In fact, it's almost always been Porsche since their recovery from the mid-90s. Porsche's margins are so good, investors are complaining that the high-volume Macan is dragging down margins to a "terrible" 16% from their typical 19-20% -- which (the 19-20%) is double what Audi's (#2 for industry margins) margins are. To put this in perspective, Porsche brings in as much profit (in Euros) as the Volkswagen brand, despite selling 2% as many cars.

Porsche commands their premium by finding a niche and trying to be the most desirable in it. They have competitors, but they offer a package people are simply willing to pay a lot more for. There were never a lot of competitors to Porsche's sports cars in their price range -- Corvette aside, Porsche still commands a huge chunk of the traditional $50-150K sports car market, and has a very devoted fanbase. They also carved out a significant chunk of the high-end SUV market.

What competes with the Model S and Model X? Nothing from a powertrain perspective. Add in clever packaging and other features that are largely exclusive and they've created a niche for themselves.

The Model 3 is Tesla's Cayenne/Macan. The volume play to ensure their top-end electric vehicles can continue to command their prices, and to provide cash for general operations. Being the mass market player is admirable, but if someone (or several companies) outplay or match you, you could be in for a rough ride. To me, Tesla made the smart play by focusing on higher-margin vehicles.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#15
post #3

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. Mahatma Gandhi

"Misattributed quotes taken out of context can be used to defend anything" -Mahatma Gandhi http://www.snopes.com/first-they-ignore-you/

Why are you obsessing over the origin of the quote? There is nothing to defend here.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#17
post #8
post #5

I remember their plan is basically how Ford operated. It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. I remember seeing the concept car for the Chevy Volt a few years ago and thinking how cool it was. Then they released it and made it aerodynamic and thus BORING. It's pretty nuts this car is 35k and the list of advantages to disadvantages can be summed as. There's no reason to buy any other car.

The lifetime of most cars is 14-20 years (half of it on the second-hand market). Tesla's is 8 years, if I understand. It makes their cars twice as expensive in effect.

The warranty is 8 years. Cars don't just die the moment the warranty runs out, including Teslas.

https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/infinite-mile-warranty

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#18
post #10

Related is Tesla's recycling program of batteries: https://www.teslamotors.com/nl_NL/blog/teslas-closed-loop-ba... Some people are skeptical about electric cars because the estimate life span of a battery is around eight years. But reading the article above (and others) you can see the batteries are not an issue anymore. I was also a little skeptical about electric cars but I think the absolute pros are: * Electricit…

> Because why would you use a lot of energy for sensors, insane mode, automatic doors, displays, computers, and so on?

Signals electronics (displays, sensors, etc) use so little energy compared to power electronics (the drivetrain system) that it doesn't really matter.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#19

I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-mod... Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, i…

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#20
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The hype is too much indeed. It's actually concerning - I believe that a lot of people will get their $1000 back, once the first negative review hits, and this is going to backlash. And we are definitely going to see such reviews, because the negative and "something-gate" news sell well. Disclaimer: I am a fan of Elon. p.s. Why am I being downvoted without a response?

History will tell. Calculated bets move us forward.

Yes, I agree. The bet is high and I hope it will produce nice outcome for everybody in the long term!
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