Earlier quoted context omitted.
Then disagree with the premise. Is it wrong? Why is it ridiculous? Are the adavances in robotics and ML that we are currently experiencing going to hit a wall soon?
It's not that advancements are going to hit a wall. It's absurd to assume human demand for consumption is finite. There will always be human desires that cannot be satiated by machines.
Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots
81–90 of 174 posts
Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are plenty of "free market" countries where the economy has failed too, so I think a little more evidence is required...
Tell me some of those plenty. When there is little to no coercion from government I doubt any free-market society will fail. And even if it fails, it cannot be as miserably as those socialist ones. Freeing markets almost-always brings better economy.
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publicatio...
Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots
#83World Bank estimates that global poverty fell to less than 10% for the first time in history [0]. Perhaps this wasn't solely caused by capitalism and globalization, but considering those two idea were probably the driving forces of the last century, I believe they are instrumental in reducing global poverty. I just don't buy the argument that absolute livings standards have always been increasing due to capitalism bu…
If your definition of living standards is broader and includes overall welfare and social mobility, the point becomes debatable.
As for a Malthusian crash - denying the fact that ecosystems have a carrying capacity is irrational and counterfactual.
Logistic collapse has been observed time and again in natural populations. It's also been observed in human populations.
See e.g. among many possible examples:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3925430/
So it's factually wrong to claim that disasters have never happened for environmental reasons - because they certainly have happened in the past.
Being unaware that something has happened isn't a justification for claiming that it can't be possible.
Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's only ridiculous because you think in absolutes. To a large extent this has already happened.
Exactly. As a demonstration, compare our current production situation to the production situation as of, I don't know, a thousand years ago. It used to be the case that 90% or more of the population was dedicated to food production. Right now, something like 2% of the population is dedicated to food production. By their standards, we've got machines producing everything we need.
Except we don't live by their standards -- we live by our standards. And even if they had lived to see today, their standards would have immediately readjusted to want more. That's why it's ridiculous to assume we will ever have "everything we need".
Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots
#85Earlier quoted context omitted.
What, you're saying that excluding the middle ground is a fallacy? By Jove, I think you may be onto something!
The middle ground doesn't exist in itself. To have a middle ground you need to have a previous political position from which you can measure it, the illusion is believing that you can find a universal ideological space from which you can map the rest of ideological positions. That is, when you take a certain political position that not only determines what measures you want to apply, it also determines how you see ev…
The fallacy that there is a 'center' is just as bad as the fallacy of there only being a left and a right. Politics and economics are far more complicated than a continuum represented by a one dimensional line.
Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots
#86World Bank estimates that global poverty fell to less than 10% for the first time in history [0]. Perhaps this wasn't solely caused by capitalism and globalization, but considering those two idea were probably the driving forces of the last century, I believe they are instrumental in reducing global poverty. I just don't buy the argument that absolute livings standards have always been increasing due to capitalism bu…
* living under repressive and/or dangerous regimes * lacking access to good nutrition & medical infrastructure * living in over-populated, under-maintained cities
Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots
#87Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your definition of every form of economics that isn't an extreme libertarian version of capitalism as "communism or a form of socialism" makes further discourse moot.
That's a bit of a straw man. But anyway, if you want to contribute something to the debate, why not suggest an alternative system?
Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots
#88Earlier quoted context omitted.
Extrapolate from current trends and the general apathy of the people who could change them. Is there anything you are aware of that would prevent it, other than "it might not happen, for some reason"?
Basic economics and history? Common sense? In the 1930s US almost all the jobs were in agriculture. Then robots took those jobs. Happened all at once, which hurt, but then what happened? Picture the future as a few dozen capitalist overlords who own all the robots selling each other robotic goods and services (because no one else has the means, right?). Where's their value add? What's everyone else going to do? Sit o…
Right now, the "value" is basically just there to get other people to work for you. That and exchanging goods is all money does. When you have robots to build anything you want, cure all your ills, and don't need human servants, you don't need money. Robots get paid in energy, so to speak, and then there's only resources and control over them.
> The optimistic view is that automation will liberate humanity from all forms of drudge labour and eventually usher in a post scarcity society.
Right, and people who until now don't want to share, will suddenly change? That's not current trends, that is the opposite of current trends. The gap between rich and poor is growing, not closing.
Also, just because something is irrational, destructive and self-destructive, doesn't mean it can't happen or isn't already going on. Powerful people aren't necessarily the most intelligent or wise. I'd even say to reach some levels of power mental health defects are a necessity. Which, to me, is also part of common sense and things I'm surprised I even have to point out.
Here's a comment I bookmarked:
http://hardware.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=4428673&cid=453...
> The main part of the economics that don't make sense is trusting a secretive technocratic savior, wielding trillions of dollars of resources, to actually give a shit about helping out all the low-level peons who initially funded the system. It's an extremely elitist vision, that, by people's parents handing over investment money to a small cabal of technological geniuses, their kids will be handed a post-scarcity utopia on a platter --- instead of the wealthy technocrats simply joining forces with the rest of the oppressive oligarchy, laughing at the suckers who gambled away their children's futures on promises of technology serving the people rather than vice-versa.
Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots
#89Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tell me some of those plenty. When there is little to no coercion from government I doubt any free-market society will fail. And even if it fails, it cannot be as miserably as those socialist ones. Freeing markets almost-always brings better economy.
I guess that depends how we define failure. Some might say 14.8% poverty in a western country would be a failure. https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publicatio...
Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots
#90Hawking does believe that AI will be a danger to humanity long term. The short term problems caused by near future robots is a different subject. Capitalism isn't inherently the problem. We could have capitalism and tax capital owners at a high rate, and distribute the wealth much more evenly. It's possible everyone could become capital owners and it would be normal to live off interest instead of work. Like owning t…
It would be very hard to implement a capitalism with even distribution. By nature, this system leads to capital accumulation. Since no capital is infinite, accumulation in one place means removing it from somewhere else. So you need mechanisms to always redistribute the capital to avoid this problem and balance the system. But capitalists will battle these machanisms to gain efficiency, and you will be in a rate race…
I agree with the first sentence but the second assumes the economy is zero-sum. This is only true to a certain extent within some domains, like ownership of physical land.