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Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots

failedevolution.blogspot.com

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Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots

#61

Post by asift »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #39
asift wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If machines produce everything we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed. When you start with ridiculous premises, you're going to reach ridiculous conclusions.

Then disagree with the premise. Is it wrong? Why is it ridiculous? Are the adavances in robotics and ML that we are currently experiencing going to hit a wall soon?

It's not that advancements are going to hit a wall. It's absurd to assume human demand for consumption is finite. There will always be human desires that cannot be satiated by machines.

Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots

#62

Post by boken »

PavlovsCat wrote: post #7
arbuge wrote: post #2

With all due respect to Stephen Hawking, whose expertise in theoretical physics is undoubted, how would he be in a position to "confirm" this?

Extrapolate from current trends and the general apathy of the people who could change them. Is there anything you are aware of that would prevent it, other than "it might not happen, for some reason"?

Apathy and disagreement are different things. So are extrapolation and confirmation.

No one is in a position to "confirm" this statement or prove it irrecusably wrong. More or less tenable arguments may be made, more or less well. I think Hawking does well here, behind the poorer commentary, but I'm unwilling to engage in or let lie propaganda for any end, particularly on a forum on which we are to default to respect for others' ability to engage in thoughtful dialogue. The source for this article is not easily to be dismissed, but the article's title is misleading - a straight fib - and a misleading headline that suggests one reading over another while pretending to fact is propagandistic.

Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots

#63

Post by [deleted] »

PavlovsCat wrote: post #7
arbuge wrote: post #2

With all due respect to Stephen Hawking, whose expertise in theoretical physics is undoubted, how would he be in a position to "confirm" this?

Extrapolate from current trends and the general apathy of the people who could change them. Is there anything you are aware of that would prevent it, other than "it might not happen, for some reason"?

[deleted]

Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots

#64

Post by warfangle »

asift wrote: post #54
kingkawn wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering how deeply this community has internalized the importance of creative thought your analysis is pretty limiting to any new possibility being possible.

How? Free market capitalism is the epitome of creative thought. It's not a limiting doctrine that says you can only do this or that. It's a doctrine that says you are free to engage with others however you want so long as you respect their autonomy and freedom to make their own decisions. If someone wants to start a voluntary socialist commune, they have the freedom to do so within a free market. Unfortunately for as…

There sure was a whole lot of force and coercion behind social security.

Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots

#65

Post by afsina »

bottled_poe wrote: post #47
cbeach wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USSR, Cuba, Vietnam, Communist China, North Korea, Venezuela, Argentina...

There are plenty of "free market" countries where the economy has failed too, so I think a little more evidence is required...

Tell me some of those plenty.

When there is little to no coercion from government I doubt any free-market society will fail. And even if it fails, it cannot be as miserably as those socialist ones. Freeing markets almost-always brings better economy.

Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots

#66

Post by realusername »

cbeach wrote: post #50
sdk77 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism can't be communism because one is a financial / economical system and the other is a political system. The two are related but not always in the same way. European countries, especially the Scandinavian ones are very Socialist and capitalist. China is an even 'weirder' example. There already are many different forms of capitalism as an economic system under different political systems.

Scandinavian countries aren't nearly as socialist or successful as non-Scandinavian socialists claim they are: http://www.bullshitexposed.com/scandinavian-socialism-debunk...

I absolutely don't understand the point this website is trying to make, apart from "Norway is backed by big oil", which is true and the suicide part (which cannot be linked clearly to the economic model), everything else is either really subjective or does not account for the difference of purchasing power in the different countries.

EDIT: Because I was downvoted:

> "1. Scandinavia isn’t really all that socialist"

Socialism does not have the same meaning in Europe and in the US and apparently, this was forgotten. They are liberal socialist countries, if you prefer.

> "2. Scandinavia isn’t actually as prosperous as liberals like to claim"

Raw GDP is unrelated how people actually live, I don't get this point.

> 3. Scandinavians have lower gross and disposable incomes

There is no mention of purchasing power, you can't buy the same things with the same salary in Dollars, it's comparing apples and oranges.

> 4. But money isn’t everything! What about the poor?

There is no mention anywhere in this part of the poverty rate of the different countries, just a graph of the poverty in the US (which does not argue for his point).

> 5. Norway is backed by big oil

Yes, and what about the other ones ?

> 6. Scandinavians aren’t as happy as Americans

Suicide rates are much much more than just economics themselves, and I don't understand why this is there.

Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots

#67

Post by danharaj »

makosdv wrote: post #3

They aren't even talking about Capitalism. They're talking about Cronyism.

You can't just define capitalism as "the good parts" and cronyism as "the bad parts". There is no mechanism that is part of capitalism that prevents rampant exploitation and capital accumulation, because that is the basis of capitalism.

Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots

#68

Post by bottled_poe »

stevetrewick wrote: post #55
PavlovsCat wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extrapolate from current trends and the general apathy of the people who could change them. Is there anything you are aware of that would prevent it, other than "it might not happen, for some reason"?

Basic economics and history? Common sense? In the 1930s US almost all the jobs were in agriculture. Then robots took those jobs. Happened all at once, which hurt, but then what happened? Picture the future as a few dozen capitalist overlords who own all the robots selling each other robotic goods and services (because no one else has the means, right?). Where's their value add? What's everyone else going to do? Sit o…

> Of course it's possible to argue that the rise of the machines or the on rushing singularity make it impossible to reason about this with any certainty, but then that applies to Dr Hawking as well, no matter how much smarter than the average bear he is.

Well, if there is anyone who knows about singularities, it's Dr Steve :-)

Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots

#69

Post by asift »

johanneskanybal wrote: post #44
asift wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If machines produce everything we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed. When you start with ridiculous premises, you're going to reach ridiculous conclusions.

It's only ridiculous because you think in absolutes. To a large extent this has already happened.

To think in absolutes would be to believe that human desires are finite. Even if I'm 100% materially comfortable in life (an unlikely occurrence given our ever increasing standards), I'm going to desire forms of consumption that can only come from human interaction.

Re: Stephen Hawking confirms: The problem is Capitalism, not robots

#70

Post by spdy »

cbeach wrote: post #18
kingkawn wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering how deeply this community has internalized the importance of creative thought your analysis is pretty limiting to any new possibility being possible.

I'm still waiting for someone to come up with an alternative to capitalism that isn't communism, or some dilute form of communism. We have socialism - the erosion of capitalism to provide a reward for those that won't or can't work. What's your "new possibility"? Without a proposal, your point is moot.

We are moving into a direction of nearly full automation. Most of us in this community can probably envision a world were robots do all the "blue color" work and lower "white color work" and soon even more with the progress we make in AI (Deep Blue as the most prominent example)

Over the next decades we will lose millions of jobs and need an highly educated workforce for the fewer jobs remaining. But for some people the saying "you cant teach an old dog new tricks" will come true and this part of society needs a way to live in dignity. Talking for example about Truck/Taxi Driver / Assembly Workers / Mailmen you name it.

We as a society have a choice to make and i hope it wont be one you can see in several Dystopien movies.

We have seen communism and it did not work now we are on the full side of the other spectrum of capitalism and it does not work as well (Income inequality). Unconditional basic income could be one solution of many.

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