Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

google.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 276 posts

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#71

Post by frinxor »

cft wrote: post #36
sremani wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is cherry picking, but you can cherry pick too for your case. Other than FB who is doing great?

Fb will collapse too. People under 22 have quitted, and among older people, very few people post. The main product is dead essentially. Of course, the revenue lags behind this usage curve, just like in the case of Blackberry: the product was already dead but the revenue has not peaked yet. What remains is the fb messenger and very costly acqusitions of new stuff: whatsapp, ig, potentially snapchat. That strategy rema…

Hope you have you puts and shorts in place then!

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#72

Post by kin »

w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

While many are saying the bubble is popping I feel like it's just correcting itself. Other companies with high evaluations actually have a business model and hopefully shouldn't suffer the same fate.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#73

Post by jsprogrammer »

jamisteven wrote: post #58
pyrrhotech wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to…

I highly doubt this will be happening to the likes of Uber or AirBNB anytime soon, for one Travis Kalanik is one of the brightest guys on the planet and relentless in his efforts, much like Jobs in his prime. AirBNB will face more challenges but the amount of monetary funds it collects in transactions and fee's it is collecting will keep it at the top for a long long time. Anytime a company puts money back into the h…

AirBNB (and Uber) don't own or control any of the property that they are collecting transactions and fees on. They rely on extraction of value from independent contractors; if a viable alternative exists, those contractors can dump them in seconds (or however long it takes to download the alternative app/website).

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#74

Post by theseatoms »

vanattab wrote: post #13
theseatoms wrote: post #2

This doesn't bode well for other publicly traded B corporations, unfortunately. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_corporation

Can you expand on why this a bad sign for B Corps more so then C Corps? Honest question. Before reading the link I did not know the difference between B and C.

I don't know the details of the Etsy's financial situation, so my initial comment seems a bit flippant, having re-read it.

But regardless, Etsy was a high profile B corp IPO, so I expect people to draw conclusions from its success or failure regarding the viability of B corps in public equity markets. (Warby Parker and Patagonia are two other B corps.)

After all, public companies are legally obligated to maximize shareholder value.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#75

Post by anindyabd »

winter_blue wrote: post #25
w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

So I suppose the take-away is: avoid putting your savings in tech stock?

As a rule of thumb, you should only invest what you can afford to lose, in any stock.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#76

Post by danieltillett »

darawk wrote: post #49
pyrrhotech wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to…

I don't think Uber and Airbnb are particularly comparable to these companies. Uber and Airbnb have very clear business models.

They have very clear business models, but even if they capture 100% of their market the possible revenue can’t support their current valuations.

I think both these businesses are fantastic businesses that will make a lot of money, but I would not buy at their current valuations.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#77

Post by Hermel »

w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

GoPro: from 64$ to 11$

http://www.google.com/finance?q=GPRO

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#78

Post by jonknee »

adventured wrote: post #67
toomuchtodo wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In reality, these are just are opinions you and I have. We'll find out in the next 18 months what the fate (and the value) of Yahoo is.

It's not an opinion that $4.8 billion in sales and one of the largest Web properties, is worth more than zero. That's easily backed up by comps such as AOL, Yahoo's nearly 20 years of being public along with how the markets treated it, and how they were valued prior to the Alibaba stake becoming valuable (hint: they never received a negative valuation, even in the absolute worst of times post dotcom bubble when their…

Well you should buy some shares because Wall Street currently think Core Yahoo is worthless.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#79

Post by amelius »

criley2 wrote: post #61
pyrrhotech wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to…

Disagree entirely. Twitter? No good way to monetize. Groupon? Failed to monetize effectively after virality faded and without a moat competitors did the same thing. Yelp? A web version of the BBB protection scheme whose profit comes from the shake down protection racket against small businesses, not from users. Zynga had no moat and other companies quickly did the same thing with much leaner overhead, like King and a…

> On the flip side, every time someone takes an Uber or rents a room on AirBnb, they pay the company.

Yes, but Uber and AirBnB do not have (from a technical perspective) innovative products, nor strong lock-in businessmodels. Everybody could start a competitor. In fact, Uber faces a lot of competition already; see e.g. [1], [2].

[1] http://www.forbes.com/sites/liyanchen/2015/09/09/uber-wants-...

[2] http://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-meets-its-match-in-france-1... (paywalled)

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#80

Post by pyrrhotech »

criley2 wrote: post #61
pyrrhotech wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to…

Disagree entirely. Twitter? No good way to monetize. Groupon? Failed to monetize effectively after virality faded and without a moat competitors did the same thing. Yelp? A web version of the BBB protection scheme whose profit comes from the shake down protection racket against small businesses, not from users. Zynga had no moat and other companies quickly did the same thing with much leaner overhead, like King and a…

I'll concede that Uber and Airbnb business models are stronger than the others, but they are still massively overvalued based on near future growth prospects. Those two will probably succeed in the long run, but they still won't be good stock picks
Post reply on HN