Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months • Hacker News Board

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#31

Post by paulcole » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:45 PM UTC

rail2rail wrote: post #8

sulam wrote: post #5

To be clear, it's lost XX% of it's market cap. The market cap is a knowingly-flawed assessment of earnings potential for a company. Its actual value is probably unchanged.

The value of Etsy changed when Amazon entered its space. It is objectively worth less now that the 800 lb gorilla has decided to eat Etsy's lunch.

I don't think this has much to do with it. Amazon's attempt was really half-assed (classic Amazon, to be honest). The only mention of Handmade on the Amazon homepage is in the "Search by Category" dropdown.

The real issue in my opinion is that Etsy discovered that they couldn't keep growing without opening their doors to cheap non-handmade shit. Which they've done. And their search/discoverability is absolutely awful.

My partner lists her truly handmade products on Etsy but only as an afterthought. As the amount of garbage on Etsy has increased, her views/sales have dropped. She has put all of her effort into getting sales through her own website, where at least she's in control.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#32

Post by davidwparker » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:46 PM UTC

VeilEm wrote: post #12

w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

What point are you making? Perhaps it isn't too hard to look at examples of tech companies that have done well since IPO. This is quintessential cherry picking. The market in general has been downward recently but Atlassian and Godaddy are holding their own for example: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:TEAM https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:GDDY

Atlassian has been public for just over a month. Give it time.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#33

Post by adventured » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:46 PM UTC

w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

Might as well throw Angie's List on that pile.

From a high of ~$28 in Jun 2013, to $8.x now (IPO opened at $15 over four years ago).

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#34

Post by amitagrawal » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:46 PM UTC

smegel wrote: post #22

w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

Yahoo: from $11 in 2011 to $50 in 2014 to $30 in 2016 I am actually surprised Yahoo is worth three times as much today as it was in 2011.

It is basically due to their ownership in Alibaba.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#35

Post by pyrrhotech » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:46 PM UTC

w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public.

Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to dump the majority of their stake by SEC regulations. Then proceed to shout about how you changed the world and how it wasn't for the money from your yacht.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#36

Post by cft » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:48 PM UTC

sremani wrote: post #16

VeilEm wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What point are you making? Perhaps it isn't too hard to look at examples of tech companies that have done well since IPO. This is quintessential cherry picking. The market in general has been downward recently but Atlassian and Godaddy are holding their own for example: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:TEAM https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:GDDY

It is cherry picking, but you can cherry pick too for your case. Other than FB who is doing great?

Fb will collapse too. People under 22 have quitted, and among older people, very few people post. The main product is dead essentially. Of course, the revenue lags behind this usage curve, just like in the case of Blackberry: the product was already dead but the revenue has not peaked yet. What remains is the fb messenger and very costly acqusitions of new stuff: whatsapp, ig, potentially snapchat. That strategy remanins to be proven to become economically feasible.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#37

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:48 PM UTC

sremani wrote: post #16

VeilEm wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What point are you making? Perhaps it isn't too hard to look at examples of tech companies that have done well since IPO. This is quintessential cherry picking. The market in general has been downward recently but Atlassian and Godaddy are holding their own for example: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:TEAM https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:GDDY

It is cherry picking, but you can cherry pick too for your case. Other than FB who is doing great?

[deleted]

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#38

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:48 PM UTC

thecolorblue wrote: post #11

Quinner wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does this have anything to do with it's status as a B-corp, rather than other market pressures on Etsy specifically, including Amazon's efforts in the space?

Etsy is a test, in some ways, to see if the b corp model can fit in a large, publicly traded company. The hope was that the b corp model would break out of its niche, and be applicable more globally.

[deleted]

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#39

Post by adventured » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:48 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #29

smegel wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yahoo: from $11 in 2011 to $50 in 2014 to $30 in 2016 I am actually surprised Yahoo is worth three times as much today as it was in 2011.

It's only Alibaba stock they hold that creates any "value" in Yahoo. "The latter part of the business is clearly pulling the former along. Here’s how to think about it: Yahoo has a stock market value of $34.1 billion, and owns a 24 percent stake in Alibaba. Estimates for the current value of Alibaba, which is planning an IPO, range between $75 billion and $125 billion. If it comes in at the low end of that range, Yah…

In fact they're not valued at zero. It's the Alibaba stake that is discounted, as all cash and assets on a balance sheet are by investors. That's trivially easy to prove by looking at Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Berkshire Hathaway, or Apple's financials.

If Yahoo were floated on the public market, with $4.8 billion in sales and $200 +/- million in profit, the valuation they would receive is not zero.

Proof? See: the valuation AOL had before being sold (not to mention what they got sold for). Yahoo is very obviously worth more than AOL was.

The bad analysis that Yahoo is worth less than zero, is caused by people that don't understand how you actually value corporations in reality. The bogus $0 valuation appraisal only exists in a fiction (and it makes for excellent clickbait), not in reality.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#40

Post by theklub » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:49 PM UTC

w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

I could have told you all of those would end up that way. Its like a list of fads.