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The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

nytimes.com

111–120 of 149 posts

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#111
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"In short the loan system is transferring the benefits of the education away from the students and allowing the institutions to take it for themselves instead." That is by far the most concise summary I've ever read of the nature of the problem. Would you say that the same thing is true to a lesser extent in the housing market? It's not as bad, but there's a huge amount of loan subsidy there that's driving the price…

It's a nice analogy, but at least in the housing market you're equally likely to be a winner (sell before crash) as a loser (buy before crash).

Is there a general principle here? Do loan subsidies lead to a condition in which the loan recipients are able to reap the benefits intended for loan originators through progressive inflation and risk transfer?

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#112
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The loans are the key to the whole mess. So long as the loan is guaranteed to all and non-dischargeable through bankruptcy, the cost will tend to rise to match the total expected lifetime earnings the education enables. In short the loan system is transferring the benefits of the education away from the students and allowing the institutions to take it for themselves instead.

The cost will tend to rise to match the total expected incremental lifetime earning, discounted to the present value. Personally, I think we've already passed that point. Would love to see some more research here.

Wait, really?

The incremental lifetime earning from a Bachelor's degree is something like 0.5 to 1.5 million dollars[1]. The cost of attending college could double at least once before the ROI goes negative.

[1] https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/colleg...

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#113

This article hints at schools inability to justify their ever increasing prices. Why is tuition continuing to rise so much faster than inflation? Is this simple supply and demand? Government backed loans create infinite supply to anyone who wants them? How can not for profit schools justify gauging their students?

"How can not for profit schools justify gauging their students?"

In the U.S. everything is for profit. It's just that some of the for-profits find it beneficial to file as a non-profit for the benefits it confers.

Look at just about any big American university or hospital. You have marketing, customers, revenue maximization, ruthlessly driving down labor costs, and as much cash as possible captured by the CEO (er, president) and other high level executives.

The great thing about running a business like this, is how the U.S. government earmarks massive amounts of the national GDP, which can only be used on your product. School loans, as others have mentioned, and Medicare/Medicaid for health care.

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#114

This article hints at schools inability to justify their ever increasing prices. Why is tuition continuing to rise so much faster than inflation? Is this simple supply and demand? Government backed loans create infinite supply to anyone who wants them? How can not for profit schools justify gauging their students?

Students are advised by parents and counsellors whose experience is one generation behind but believe they are current.

My wife teaches high schoolers and a huge percentage of their parents think admission to an out of state private school guarantees a solid career. She (an older millennial) is often the only voice in favor of a strong in state public school or picking a major that actually leads to a job.

Prediction: the problem gets worse until the leading edge of millennials have high schoolers of their own.

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#115
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that plus they don't necessarily restrict the loans with regards to the education you are receiving. it is one thing to go into a field that is experiencing good growth it is another to enter one that is saturated or quickly saturating. It has always been my belief that if government is going to provide loans it should set limits on the cost of the education it is taking the risk for. It already sets limits on medica…

In Germany, it’s simple: 1. If your parents earn enough to finance you studying, you won’t get a loan 2. The loan is limited to 800$ a month 3. If you fail too many courses, the loan is cancelled. But: 4. You only have to pay back in months in which you earn over 30k€ per year This allows the loans to be a lot less risky. I’d argue this is a much better system than what I read about the US tuition system, especially…

"I’d argue this is a much better system than what I read about the US tuition system, especially for the students."

As an American, it would be difficult to engineer a worse tuition system than ours.

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#116
I have a different perspective. I'm in my mid-30s, and I'm considering going to college. Now, I can get very senior sysadmin/sre roles, and believe I could get a mid-level swe role (certainly could get a junior swe role)

Point being, I do okay; the Stanford budget of $65K/yr[1] would be super easy if I could work a half-time job/half-time school; or something of that nature, and comparing to getting accepted by Stanford[2], paying for it should be trivial. I've talked employers into letting me work part-time before.

I guess that what I'm saying is that for a nerd, the real cost here is not what you pay for college, it's the time off work. Now, maybe it is worth it and maybe it is not,[3] but even when I was 18 (in 1998) I was making close to $50K/yr.[4] Considering how everything has gone, I bet that was rather more than Stanford charged at the time.

I mean, sure, I see that it's a problem that people pay that much for a degree that doesn't convey a lot of privilege, but if my impression of how much privilege is implied by a degree from a top school is correct, two or three hundred grand for such a degree is downright cheap. We're talking like two Teslas, and as far as I can tell, it doesn't depreciate like a car does, unless the school falls in reputation later on.

I don't want to make light of the problems people who work in lower-paying fields have, and personally, I think it sounds absolutely crazy that you ask people who are all but children to decide if they want to take out loans without the fallback of bankruptcy, and I personally don't have a problem to some extent subsidizing people who want "education for education's sake" -people who want to get educated and then work in a poorly remunerated field, but I'm just saying that as far as I can tell, at least for us nerds, if a school can do what is says it can do[5] and you aren't capable of doing that by yourself, at today's prices, it's a hell of a deal.

[1]http://financialaid.stanford.edu/undergrad/budget/

[2]And qualifying for Stanford will take a lot of test prep, effort and luck on my part. Qualifying is not anywhere near a sure thing for me; and that's the first step. If I can't get into a top-20 type school... I'm probably not gonna bother. My impression is that the benefits drop off pretty sharply.

[3]My impression is that if I want to continue on as an individual contributor, a degree, even a Stanford degree isn't gonna get me all that much. I already can get pretty good individual contributor gigs. But, if I ever want to switch fields or advance into management, a degree from a top college would be extremely valuable.

[4]I haven't yet gone over all the tax details here; all numbers are pre-tax. I do have an accountant, though; if I manage to qualify, I will spend the money to learn what the tax status of educational expenses are in my case. Obviously, if you have to pay for college out of post-tax dollars, that makes a huge difference (and makes the "work half time/school half time" bit essential, because you earn less and pay less in taxes)

[5]The theory is that a school can take a normal person and teach them how to do my job. Maybe this is true, maybe it's not, but If you accept that as true, then even top schools are not expensive.

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#117

It's quite likely that by the time my 11-year-old hits 18, private universities will cost over $100,000 per year (tuition plus fees, housing, and food plan), and public schools will be $25K [EDITED orig. $50K] (plus or minus, depending on state subsidies and other funding such as corporate donations). While the university experience is undoubtedly a valuable one for the 18-22 age range, with tremendous intellectual a…

I agree with getting the US Gov out of the loan business, but i think we the market to react, and it has begun to. For many professions, colleges can be substituted by trade schools. We are already seeing this surge in software, and i think we can expect the trend to move into other verticals. At some point, and for some majors this has already happened, a BS/BA stands to lose you money over a lifetime. At a point, c…

If you separate the testing and certification from the education, it isn't quite so important where the knowledge/skill came from, so long as the person has it.

For instance, if you take the rock guitarist certification test, and pass, you should be able to play guitar passably well in a rock band. It doesn't matter if you studied in a music conservatory for a few years, or worked small-time gigs in bars and clubs, or played a guitar-learning video game.

It's not the education that's the bottleneck. It's proving to others that you have the knowledge/skill in an efficient way.

The professional associations for actuaries (SoA, CAS) runs their own testing regime. You can take a university course to prepare for the tests, but you don't have to. That testing and certification process has led to the situation where passing another exam usually triggers a pay increase. And actuaries consistently rate as having very high job satisfaction.

ABMS runs certification tests for specialist physicians.

Lawyers have the bar examinations and board certification for specialists.

The same could happen for other careers. A group with a narrow focus could poach the testing and certification function from the generalist universities. For someone who has no need for external guidance with respect to a general education, and who knows what sort of career they want, they could skip college, and climb the ladder of a testing authority. That would present some risk that the authority itself fails in some way before all the tests are passed, and the career position established.

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#118
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you're saying people who go to college shouldn't expect to have time to study?

It's certainly possible to work while attending university. I did it...

Good for you. I had to quit working in my second year to be able to have enough time to study as much as I needed.

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#119
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost will tend to rise to match the total expected incremental lifetime earning, discounted to the present value. Personally, I think we've already passed that point. Would love to see some more research here.

Wait, really? The incremental lifetime earning from a Bachelor's degree is something like 0.5 to 1.5 million dollars[1]. The cost of attending college could double at least once before the ROI goes negative. [1] https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/colleg...

You're forgetting about opportunity cost and the salary plus job advancement that you could achieve in the time you are in college

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#120
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost will tend to rise to match the total expected incremental lifetime earning, discounted to the present value. Personally, I think we've already passed that point. Would love to see some more research here.

Wait, really? The incremental lifetime earning from a Bachelor's degree is something like 0.5 to 1.5 million dollars[1]. The cost of attending college could double at least once before the ROI goes negative. [1] https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/colleg...

Here's a study that puts it closer to $500 for women and $800k for men:

https://news.ku.edu/2015/06/19/ku-study-gives-more-accurate-...

But these studies are all flawed because they are based on historical data when 4-year degrees were scarcer. In an era when many graduates can't get a job or end up with one that does not require a degree (i.e. barista) it's obvious that their ROI prospects are grim.

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