Volkswagen rigged tests on 2.8M cars in Germany, Berlin says • Hacker News Board

Re: Volkswagen rigged tests on 2.8M cars in Germany, Berlin says

#61

Post by mikeash » Fri, Sep 25, 2015, 4:43 PM UTC

noir_lord wrote: post #46

qyv wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems to me that any 'fix' that lowers fuel economy would have a real and measurable damage on the owners in the way of increased fuel costs. Wouldn't this just be deflecting the problem from one area to another?

If I was VW I'd calculate the fuel economy difference between with fix and without fix, factor oil prices and inflation over life of the car and just offer drivers the difference. It's be cheaper than a refund (which is unlikely) and would allow them to bring the cars back into compliance.

Note that this is what Hyundai did in the US a few years ago when they were found to have overstated their efficiency numbers. They simply reimburse you the difference in fuel costs, plus a little extra as their way of saying "sorry" or something like that.

https://hyundaimpginfo.com/customerinfo/compensation-informa...

Re: Volkswagen rigged tests on 2.8M cars in Germany, Berlin says

#62

Post by harryf » Fri, Sep 25, 2015, 4:43 PM UTC

swombat wrote: post #45

I feel it's worth making the point that everyone talking about penalties is avoiding: Penalties are pointless. Financial penalties applied to a company this size basically just get socialised. Either employees (generally innocent of this) lose their jobs as the company closes factories, or the price of future cars goes up, or even the company goes entirely bust in which case that doesn't actually help anyone at all.…

Wonder how long it takes before we find BMW, Mercedes et al. are doing the same as VW and this is car industry "standard practice"? That in turn could lead to German economic collapse... this is gonna get really "interesting"

Re: Volkswagen rigged tests on 2.8M cars in Germany, Berlin says

#63

Post by mikeash » Fri, Sep 25, 2015, 4:45 PM UTC

PavleMiha wrote: post #57

onion2k wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternatively, nationalise the company with no redress to the shareholders. They lose all their money, the company keeps on running so the jobs are kept (until the business shuts down or is sold at least), and customers aren't left without support. If the penalty for failing to ensure the company you invested in is losing your investment then perhaps shareholders would police their investments better.

As a shareholder, how are you supposed to police for this kind of situation? The shareholders were lied to as well.

I don't know, but you could ask that about anything a company does. The whole point of owning shares is that you share in both the successes and failures of the company. If the company has a significant downside potential that you can't control for, then you need to account for that when buying shares.

In terms of losses to shareholders, this is no different than if VW had decided to burn all their factories to the ground and go into the sausage-making business, which then failed spectacularly. The shareholders get "punished" for that, and we would expect nothing different. Why should a legal failure be treated more leniently than a financial failure?

Re: Volkswagen rigged tests on 2.8M cars in Germany, Berlin says

#64

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Sep 25, 2015, 4:46 PM UTC

arethuza wrote: post #18

adventured wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would instantly bankrupt VW, in almost any way you cut it. I have no idea what the intricacies of German bankruptcy laws are, but I imagine they could cut a deal with car owners, and then emerge back out of bankruptcy in whatever German equivalent manner that would occur. That scenario will never happen though, there won't be enough global coordination between vehicle owners. The only way that type of outcome occu…

International companies of any size aren't a single legal entity - bankrupting VW USA (which presumably sold the cars) is probably a limited liability subsidiary of VW - so it could go bankrupt without necessarily bankrupting the parent company.

[deleted]

Re: Volkswagen rigged tests on 2.8M cars in Germany, Berlin says

#65

Post by chrischen » Fri, Sep 25, 2015, 4:48 PM UTC

swombat wrote: post #45

I feel it's worth making the point that everyone talking about penalties is avoiding: Penalties are pointless. Financial penalties applied to a company this size basically just get socialised. Either employees (generally innocent of this) lose their jobs as the company closes factories, or the price of future cars goes up, or even the company goes entirely bust in which case that doesn't actually help anyone at all.…

Large organizations do take on a mind of its own. This is because individual people will adjust their behaviors once they become exposed to the established pressure from culture, policies, and rules in the organization.

Take the U.S. President for example. They almost always change their policies when actually taking office due to new internal information from government. The government faces unique challenges from that of an individual person, and so the individual must act differently when making decisions for the large organization.

Re: Volkswagen rigged tests on 2.8M cars in Germany, Berlin says

#66

Post by ZeroGravitas » Fri, Sep 25, 2015, 4:48 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #9

crystalmeph wrote: post #5

I wonder if this will have an effect on Europe's appetite for diesel cars in general going forward. I know they're much more popular over there than here in the US.

The economist has an interesting article out right now, about how the discussion over diesel cars is almost moot with the rapid rise of the electric car globally over the next few years: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21666226-volkswagens-f...

Relatedly, Germany has some of the lowest incentives for EV buyers in the EU. Probably not a coincidence.

Re: Volkswagen rigged tests on 2.8M cars in Germany, Berlin says

#67

Post by cptskippy » Fri, Sep 25, 2015, 4:51 PM UTC

thrownaway2424 wrote: post #6

jeffdavis wrote: post #4

What would happen if all the affected consumers demanded the full purchase price returned to them and returned their used cars? It seems clear that they would win, because they were fraudulent sales. But that would bankrupt VW, right?

I don't think it's clear that they would win. The cars will be reprogrammed to meet EPA rules, and then they will have less power and use more fuel. The will be worth X on the resale market. Two weeks ago they were worth Y, where X < Y. The damages owners might be entitled to are probably Y-X, not Y.

I'm not sure there is a way to fix the cars without a hardware retrofit if that is even a viable option. Someone on reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/business/comments/3ljng2/volkswagen...) suggested the only way they were able to pass emissions was to keep the exhaust gas recirculator (EGR) operational during the test reducing NOx emissions. Keeping the EGR open has a lot of drawbacks and probably isn't a viable long term solution as it results in loss of power in the engine, reduced fuel economy, greater wear on the engine, increased particulate emissions, increased overall operating temperatures. The later drawback would probably require a hardware solution.

A diesel engine with an EGR operating doesn't efficiently burn off all the fuel which, in addition to loss of power, produces greater particulate matter (pm) emissions which intern need to be filtered from the exhaust. The exhaust filters can become clogged with pm soot and the way it's cleansed is by injecting and igniting fuel in the exhaust to burn off the soot. If the EGR was continuously in operation then this burn off process would happen with greater regularity increasing the operating temperature of the exhaust system which would probably require more heat shielding and cooling.

Another option is a selective catalytic reduction (SCR) system. Assuming one could be retro fit on these cars, an SCR would probably have the last impact on the vehicle's operation but would introduce new maintenance concerns for the operator (DEF fluid) and Volkswagen.

Re: Volkswagen rigged tests on 2.8M cars in Germany, Berlin says

#68

Post by heygrady » Fri, Sep 25, 2015, 4:52 PM UTC

dba7dba wrote: post #13

adventured wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economist has an interesting article out right now, about how the discussion over diesel cars is almost moot with the rapid rise of the electric car globally over the next few years: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21666226-volkswagens-f...

Globally? Electric cars will never reach that much consumers in Asia as it has in US. Very few people in Shanghai/Seoul/Tokyo own private garage to charge cars in over night. And this is why Toyota/Hyundai are stubbornly pushing Hydrogen cars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle_industry_in_C...

China is pretty excited about electric cars.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-23/china-won-...

> China [is] the only market where Toyota sells EVs.

Re: Volkswagen rigged tests on 2.8M cars in Germany, Berlin says

#69

Post by dalke » Fri, Sep 25, 2015, 4:52 PM UTC

benmanns wrote: post #47

dalke wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Worth" includes an estimate of the future money one might get from a sale or trade-in. That estimate is of course fuzzy. The estimate of worth, and estimate of fuzziness, assumes that VW wasn't deliberately hiding crucial information from the market.

"its price" is also fuzzy, because total cost of ownership includes gas (affected) and maintenance (affected).

Isn't that factored into the worth, not the price? I thought "the price" was more quantifiable as the specific amount spent to get the car.

Re: Volkswagen rigged tests on 2.8M cars in Germany, Berlin says

#70

Post by pfortuny » Fri, Sep 25, 2015, 4:52 PM UTC

harrumph wrote: post #53

Does anybody know the specific purpose of defeating the pollution control? I never see this addressed. What positive user experience is produced? The car has faster pickup or better gas mileage or something else?

First of all, you can add a message to your advertisements, saying "clean". This is great as brand-building.

Second: taxes. The buyer pays less taxes (at least in Europe) if the pollution is less than a certain value.

And more, I am sure.