China's booming middle class is creating world's most dynamic consumer market • Hacker News Board

Re: China's booming middle class is creating world's most dynamic consumer market

#51

Post by jhaand » Fri, Sep 18, 2015, 8:24 AM UTC

chvid wrote: post #34

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably a combination of inherent cynicism and lack of credibility in Chinese financial statistics.

The particular source here is not the Chinese government but the magazine the Economist and the consulting firm McKinsey. Both are very reputable. You can go to China or some of the surrounding countries (SE Asia, Japan, Australia) and see for yourself. Or look at the sales reports from Apple. The massively growing Chinese middle class is quite a real thing. Yet the reaction here is of scepticism, disbelief, denial.…

McKinsey reputable???

This company just plays the normal MBA playbook in an echo room and every listens without thinking. Just look at the former (some now bankrupt) companies that hired McKinsey. Amongst them Enron and Swissair.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/is-mckinsey-co-the-root... http://business.time.com/2013/09/10/mass-layoffs-overpaid-ce...

Re: China's booming middle class is creating world's most dynamic consumer market

#52

Post by eggy » Fri, Sep 18, 2015, 8:30 AM UTC

chrischen wrote: post #21

tmgcd wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Telling the truth? Until Aug,2015 about 276 lawyers who help Chinese people protecting their human right have been arrested. But China still claim it is a country under the rule of law. Another example is that recently an official media of China claim that China is the most democratic country in the world. CCP is evil, never trust it!!!!!

Edward Snowden is being hunted by the US. Are you for him or against him? If you're for him, then you'd have to stand against the US government. One could argue that due to the spying and the prosecution of Edward Snowden, that the US gov't is also lost legitimacy.

True, but you can stand up against the US government. Try that in China - anywhere. I live in Macau for 6 years, so I am a bit closer to the situation, and I have been to the mainland several times. One could also argue that there have been more than a dozen 'Edward Snowden's' in China that have been silenced, jailed or killed before they could get the word out. At least, whistle blowing does work in US some times when it counts, however, I believe there were some that were silenced in the US too. Interesting, when a tragedy occurs in the mainland, scaffold collapse, etc... a number is reported that most people say is half or a quarter of the true body count.

Re: China's booming middle class is creating world's most dynamic consumer market

#53

Post by justincormack » Fri, Sep 18, 2015, 8:51 AM UTC

df41 wrote: post #36

eva1984 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or it could be just telling the truth.

The money they spent does not lie... Look at the 2014 sales record of BMW and Audi.

Thats simply not true. They sold lots of cars to Greece before that country went into crisis. Money is not actually a real measure, and very much can be created on demand. There is also a big difference between money spent by a growing middle class versus money spent by corrupt officials. So you need better data than number of BMWs bought.

Re: China's booming middle class is creating world's most dynamic consumer market

#54

Post by sharetea » Fri, Sep 18, 2015, 9:03 AM UTC

sanxiyn wrote: post #48

mahranch wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" Why the strong anti-China sentiment on HN? I don't get it. That's quite odd, I notice the opposite. I notice many pro China pieces here on hackernews. Whether it's talking about their green energy, growing economy, financial markets or what have you. Perhaps you've fallen victim to what's known as hostile media effect? ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostile_media_effect ) It says that you tend to notice more negat…

Being realistic is different from being contrary, which in turn is different from being a conspiracy theorist. Personally, I consider "Chinese government is fabricating economic statistics" a conspiracy theory territory. You have a point that being mistaken is different from being hostile or anti, but we do call people "anti-vaccine" when they are just mistaken and as a result genuinely worried about vaccine. I think…

http://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-survey-chinas-growth-stateme...

"More than 96% of respondents to the latest Wall Street Journal survey of 64 economists–not all of whom answered every question–said China’s gross-domestic-product estimates don’t accurately reflect the state of the world’s second-biggest economy.

“Official data are manufactured to fit the government’s narrative,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities."

Re: China's booming middle class is creating world's most dynamic consumer market

#55

Post by tmgcd » Fri, Sep 18, 2015, 9:37 AM UTC

chvid wrote: post #26

6t6t6 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the article represents a bit of wishful thinking; but the fact that this is the most up-voted comment is also quite revealing.

Why the strong anti-China sentiment on HN? I don't get it.

Not anti-China, it is anti-The Communist Party of China. The Communist Party of China is evil.

Xi Jinping: "We love peace" ,But his CPC's State TV commenter on parade: "Look at this missile, it can hit Hawaii"

U.S. help China fight against NAZI, but China under control of The Communist Party of China will become another NAZI

Re: China's booming middle class is creating world's most dynamic consumer market

#56

Post by tonyedgecombe » Fri, Sep 18, 2015, 10:40 AM UTC

sharetea wrote: post #54

sanxiyn wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being realistic is different from being contrary, which in turn is different from being a conspiracy theorist. Personally, I consider "Chinese government is fabricating economic statistics" a conspiracy theory territory. You have a point that being mistaken is different from being hostile or anti, but we do call people "anti-vaccine" when they are just mistaken and as a result genuinely worried about vaccine. I think…

http://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-survey-chinas-growth-stateme... "More than 96% of respondents to the latest Wall Street Journal survey of 64 economists–not all of whom answered every question–said China’s gross-domestic-product estimates don’t accurately reflect the state of the world’s second-biggest economy. “Official data are manufactured to fit the government’s narrative,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at…

Which is exactly what you would expect in a communist regime with a neutered press.

Re: China's booming middle class is creating world's most dynamic consumer market

#57

Post by icebraining » Fri, Sep 18, 2015, 10:51 AM UTC

europestup wrote: post #47

chvid wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The particular source here is not the Chinese government but the magazine the Economist and the consulting firm McKinsey. Both are very reputable. You can go to China or some of the surrounding countries (SE Asia, Japan, Australia) and see for yourself. Or look at the sales reports from Apple. The massively growing Chinese middle class is quite a real thing. Yet the reaction here is of scepticism, disbelief, denial.…

Actually, it looks to me like Europe's economic prospects are always reported about in a negative way here on hn...

As an European, I'd suspect of bias if they weren't!

Re: China's booming middle class is creating world's most dynamic consumer market

#58

Post by jpatokal » Fri, Sep 18, 2015, 12:12 PM UTC

sanxiyn wrote: post #48

mahranch wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" Why the strong anti-China sentiment on HN? I don't get it. That's quite odd, I notice the opposite. I notice many pro China pieces here on hackernews. Whether it's talking about their green energy, growing economy, financial markets or what have you. Perhaps you've fallen victim to what's known as hostile media effect? ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostile_media_effect ) It says that you tend to notice more negat…

Being realistic is different from being contrary, which in turn is different from being a conspiracy theorist. Personally, I consider "Chinese government is fabricating economic statistics" a conspiracy theory territory. You have a point that being mistaken is different from being hostile or anti, but we do call people "anti-vaccine" when they are just mistaken and as a result genuinely worried about vaccine. I think…

Fabricating statistics wholesale is conspiracy theory. Releasing statistics that are distorted in all sorts of ways because various government organizations have direct incentives to do so is pretty much a statement of fact.

Re: China's booming middle class is creating world's most dynamic consumer market

#59

Post by hga » Fri, Sep 18, 2015, 1:26 PM UTC

obrero wrote: post #41

sharetea wrote: post #19

Anne Stevenson-Yang, a journalist and software executive who's worked and lived in China since 1985, and now a research director at an investment capital firm, has this to say about China's GDP: "actual Chinese GDP is probably a third lower than is officially reported" http://www.barrons.com/articles/anne-stevenson-yang-why-xi-j... "China is sinking into a deflationary recession that’s increasing in speed and may tak…

> There's even an outside possibility that China's economic miracle could end up in a fiery crash landing People have been saying this since Deng Xiaoping took over, over 35 years ago. Actually, they've been saying it for over 65 years.

I think these two events in the last 65 years count as "fiery crash landings":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution

Note the latter created an uneducated generation, and as of late we've been learning a lot more people were slaughtered than was generally thought.

Moving forward past the Gang of Four, it's hard to see how this experiment won't end in tears:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy

Where it's strictly enforced, it results in what's called 4-2-1, where 4 grandparents are supported by 2 parents (as long as they can) are supported by 1 child. That, the lack of a general social safety net, and the general government policy of financial repression (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_repression) appears to be short circuiting a lot of what I presume The Economist article is talking about, for many people are desperately trying to save for their and their elders' old age instead of spending like "normal" consumers. E.g. one reason for the property and other bubbles, which held out the promise of better investment returns.

Re: China's booming middle class is creating world's most dynamic consumer market

#60

Post by hga » Fri, Sep 18, 2015, 1:38 PM UTC

PakG1 wrote: post #27

superuser2 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From where do you get the ridiculous claim that human rights and the rule of law are preconditions for economic prosperity? There are many unfree yet rich countries, i.e. Singapore.

This question was answered years ago by the magna carta. Without rule of law, you get corruption and a dissatisfied population. Then you get economic stagnation and suffering by the masses. Finally, you get the French Revolution, the various Communist revolutions, and so on. Rule of law is necessary for economic prosperity because without rule of law, entrepreneurs cannot confidently engage in economic activity witho…

This is why Xi Jiping is making stamping out corruption one of his top public priorities, more so than any previous Chinese leader in modern history.

And/or this campaign is destroying rivals to his power....

He is also on record that he wants China to move forward to have proper rule of law.

And if so, we'd better hope he's a 2nd Lee Kuan Yew. Except as you note, the scales don't even vaguely match, trying to effect such a policy change without well neigh unimaginable reforms all the way down to the local level strikes me as equally unimaginable.

One of the reasons to equate the rule of law with "democracy" is checking the power of local potentates; hard to see how a huge, all powerful state like the PRC can do that from the top down.