Anne Stevenson-Yang, a journalist and software executive who's worked and lived in China since 1985, and now a research director at an investment capital firm, has this to say about China's GDP: "actual Chinese GDP is probably a third lower than is officially reported" http://www.barrons.com/articles/anne-stevenson-yang-why-xi-j... "China is sinking into a deflationary recession that’s increasing in speed and may tak…
> There's even an outside possibility that China's economic miracle could end up in a fiery crash landing
People have been saying this since Deng Xiaoping took over, over 35 years ago. Actually, they've been saying it for over 65 years.
Everybody wants to have a binary outcome for China: China, is it an all dominating inevitability? Or a massive fustercluck? A or B! And that's silly. China will grow tremendously over the next 30 years, and that growth will be filled with turmoil, booms and busts. Things are only black and white in comic books.
Or it could be like Japan and stagnate over the next 30 years, due to its similarity to Japan in demographics, exporting country's inability to transform to a consumer economy, massive internal debt, capital flight, etc.
Why the strong anti-China sentiment on HN? I don't get it.
The sentiment is mostly anti Chinese Government, not the nation / people. China's Government has been infamous for lying about economic statistics for decades. Their unemployment rate has hardly changed since the 1980s. For a while - 2001 to 2009 - their real growth was so dramatic it didn't matter much that they were lying about everything. Now that the tide is going out on the world's second largest economy, it mat…
Consistent to that, I'd encourage people to use "The Chinese Government" rather than the more common "The Chinese" that English media loves to use when generalizing. Missing a single word makes it easy to blur the lines, e.g.:
"The Chinese are corrupt and never tell the truth."
"The Chinese are only good at at stealing and copying things."
"The Chinese cyber-threat ..."
On the other hand, I've noticed in Japan, even with the pervasive anti-China sentiment, news sources are keen to use "Chinese officials" or "China's central government."
Everybody wants to have a binary outcome for China: China, is it an all dominating inevitability? Or a massive fustercluck? A or B! And that's silly. China will grow tremendously over the next 30 years, and that growth will be filled with turmoil, booms and busts. Things are only black and white in comic books.
Or it could be like Japan and stagnate over the next 30 years, due to its similarity to Japan in demographics, exporting country's inability to transform to a consumer economy, massive internal debt, capital flight, etc.
China and Japan are about as different and opposite as two places can be (I've spent time in Asia). Their both very unique places in completely opposite ways. The differences are countless and I struggle to find even minor similarities.
Or it could be like Japan and stagnate over the next 30 years, due to its similarity to Japan in demographics, exporting country's inability to transform to a consumer economy, massive internal debt, capital flight, etc.
China and Japan are about as different and opposite as two places can be (I've spent time in Asia). Their both very unique places in completely opposite ways. The differences are countless and I struggle to find even minor similarities.
I have lived in both. Cultural differences are not economic differences.
I was there on vacation one month ago and I have no trouble believing this article. The number of tourists paying European level entry fees to museums, parks and attractions is just too big (incredibly long lines everywhere, very few people from outside China). By comparison food is about 3 times as cheap as in western Europe and goods are as cheap as one expects from China.
Still, and I know this is not the point of the article, they are too many to live well, no matter how rich they become. Life there is a sequence of long lines. Three weeks there have reset my baseline for many things. When I came back home (Milan, Italy) I was surprised by how silent and desert it is and by how much sky I could see. Hardly the feelings one usually has when getting here.
Probably a combination of inherent cynicism and lack of credibility in Chinese financial statistics.
The particular source here is not the Chinese government but the magazine the Economist and the consulting firm McKinsey. Both are very reputable. You can go to China or some of the surrounding countries (SE Asia, Japan, Australia) and see for yourself. Or look at the sales reports from Apple. The massively growing Chinese middle class is quite a real thing. Yet the reaction here is of scepticism, disbelief, denial.…
Actually, it looks to me like Europe's economic prospects are always reported about in a negative way here on hn...
Why the strong anti-China sentiment on HN? I don't get it.
" Why the strong anti-China sentiment on HN? I don't get it. That's quite odd, I notice the opposite. I notice many pro China pieces here on hackernews. Whether it's talking about their green energy, growing economy, financial markets or what have you. Perhaps you've fallen victim to what's known as hostile media effect? ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostile_media_effect ) It says that you tend to notice more negat…
Being realistic is different from being contrary, which in turn is different from being a conspiracy theorist. Personally, I consider "Chinese government is fabricating economic statistics" a conspiracy theory territory.
You have a point that being mistaken is different from being hostile or anti, but we do call people "anti-vaccine" when they are just mistaken and as a result genuinely worried about vaccine. I think one should interpret "anti-China" the same way.
Probably a combination of inherent cynicism and lack of credibility in Chinese financial statistics.
The particular source here is not the Chinese government but the magazine the Economist and the consulting firm McKinsey. Both are very reputable. You can go to China or some of the surrounding countries (SE Asia, Japan, Australia) and see for yourself. Or look at the sales reports from Apple. The massively growing Chinese middle class is quite a real thing. Yet the reaction here is of scepticism, disbelief, denial.…
Yes, but just before the last two big financial crises, Americans were buying houses they couldn't afford, second and third cars, taking loans etc...
I live in Macau, and the Chinese government's recent policy of cracking down on corruption, money laundering and their history of 'massaging' the news, leaves even the Macanese, Hong Kongers and coastal mainlanders suspicious of any economic statistics coming out of the government. Foreign worker quotas here, and the drop in gamblers, VIP especially have resulted in 36% drops from last year. Gambling/Casinos generate 80% of Macau's GDP. I hold out hope for a progressive, free China, but after observing the yellow umbrella movement in Hong Kong, and the mainland's actions and words, I am in despair. The people have been under this type of rule for so long, and the rumors are that the current administration is only going after corruption when done by political rivals, while saving face with their own party.
I truly believe consumerism is going to be humbled by a crash here, and hopefully a restructuring to head up with honest accounting by government if they want to be taken serious in the world currency market.